I LOL’d at the picture of that guy. Not inspiring to be sure.
The threats are real, but have been with this regime since they took over in 1979. I could spam up the thread with a list of them all but if anyone doubts it, just ask your favorite LLM for a list of all Iranian-linked attacks on US interests, at home or abroad since that time. Iran has faced very little payback for any of them across 8 administrations so we’ll see if a credible threat of force makes a difference.
The Trump messaging to Iran of “we’re done, but also if you hit our people we’re coming back twice as hard” is the playbook they used after eliminating Soleimani in Trump’s first term. Escalate to de-escalate. Iran raised the Red Flag of Revenge, made public statements of fire and fury, then told us through back channels they would make a symbolic response to save face, and when they did, it was the end of it. We’ll see how it plays out this time.
China wants to keep the oil coming through the Straits of Hormuz, they are too dependent on it right now. As for Russia, they didn’t lift a finger to preserve Assad’s regime when it was crumbling last year, they just gave him a place to live. Putin said the below in the last day or two. Countries in the region will take note of how reliable these “sponsor” nations were during crunch time for their client.
I’ve heard the five voices he listened to on this were Wiles, Vance, Rubio, Ratcliffe, and Witkoff. Gabbard’s appointment was a political reward for the campaign, it’s clear he doesn’t listen to her and it’s debatable that the DNI isn’t necessary in any administration since the individual agency heads it “supervises” have full control over their fiefdoms. Hegseth is basically a recruiting tool/frontman for DOD. It is what it is, and that’s not optimal. Elbridge Colby is the real policy planner at the Pentagon (even though he was probably against this as well).
So much for tracking the B-2’s heading to Guam. At least the OPSEC was tight.
If you’re the praying type, now would be a good time to say some for our service men and women in the region.
I mean we’ve got the flight trackers going already, it may as well be a coaching search thread.
And btw, I’ve done some analysis of the curtains on Khamenei’s latest video and he’s totally at the hotel in Horseshoe Bay.
Whoa. First time I’ve heard of this guy but he’s apparently the current CEO of (cue ominous music) Cambridge Analytica. He’s reading the tea leaves that the B-2’s are on non-stop mission:
The B-2’s were at DG in March or April but left sometime before 6/13. That original OSINT post let has since corrected himself to say it looks like they’re going to Guam.
Regime change has to come organically from the people of Iran. We and Israel should not play any part in it.
End Iran’s nuclear program, degrade their ballistic missile capability, then stop the offensive, declare victory, and let nature take its course inside Iran.
Absolutely. They are moving the pieces in place for if/when the decision is made to apply maximum pressure. I’m glad Trump is taking his time and exhausting every option for a deal, even though he’s put that hapless boob Witkoff in charge of it. Still, I don’t see how we agree to any terms short of a Libya-style dismantling of the nuclear program and Khamenei in his bunker seems utterly defiant on any concessions so I doubt we even get back to the table.
Last post said B-2’s headed to Diego Garcia, others now saying Guam. Not sure if Guam could be a stopover on the way to DG, which is the closest launch point for a mission to Iran. Also, this:
Good article in the FT about the China-Iran relationship and in particular China’s dependence on Iranian oil.
https://www.ft.com/content/c1398efb-99d9-4709-9f24-9c7d9057e421
The military historian Edward Luttwak has made this point many times - “the Han don’t fight” as he says it. Fair enough, but they seem to be building up their entire military with the purpose of taking Taiwan, an island that is very close to them and very far from us. With the PLA having more than 2 million people and their shipbuilding far outstripping every other country on earth, at some point quantity becomes a quality of its own.
Hope we don’t ever have to find out.
Take a look at this analysis of Russia’s reaction. I guess Marjorie Taylor Greene’s vaunted BRICS defense pact isn’t coming to the rescue.
If anyone has the full NYT article, I’d love to read it.
Pure speculation on my part, but I’d think the Israelis didn’t go into this without a plan for dealing with Fordow themselves, knowing that predicting Trump’s decision is about as reliable as a 247 crystal ball pick on a junior a year away from signing day. Given how meticulously they’ve planned all the rest of it, I’d be surprised if they were going to do the equivalent of relying upon the FBI to cut the power at Nakatomi Tower that would override the emergency locks on the vault.
I’d also expect they have eyes on Fordow from the outside (and maybe the inside) and if they detect large movements of material out of it, they will hit the trucks with their JDAMS.
Again, all speculation.