swraith

Every fucking day at work...unless I am at the quarterly Board of Directors meeting. For whatever reason... that is still a no fly zone. At least until dinner/drinks after the BOD meeting.

I wish MJ the best in this race. But I don’t think I can allow myself to hope in regards to this race.

I seem to be in complete disagreement with financial markets. I think Hard crash Brexit is almost guaranteed at this point. However according to my friend who lives/breathes the bond market...less than 50% chance of hard Brexit is priced in. I don’t think the UK faces an economic meltdown. Rather I think their withdrawal from the European single market will create drag on long term growth. Whatever bilateral trading deals the UK negotiates will be worse than what they have today. So long term, GDP growth will be less than remaining in EU. How that plays out over a 5 to 10 year period is anybody’s guess at this point. I don’t have any material assets invested in the UK markets. If I did, I would get them out. I do think the pound sterling will continue to devalue significantly post Hard Brexit. I don’t think the US government has any role in guaranteeing any trade with UK in the short run. Let individual actors sort any supply chain shifts needed and let profit be the motivation. I am sure the US will continue to trade with the UK...at price points attractive to businesses.

Equating McCain and Crenshaw on the same level is ridiculous. The far far right is just as rabid insane as the far far left. I am not advocating both sides. I am noting, with irony, that while this thread rightfully lambasts Crenshaw, there are loonies in the extreme right who excoriate him for perceiving him as failing their purity tests.

Why is this “symbolic” gesture needed? In the era of America First, what does America gain from such a gesture?

Who in the US should make this guarantee and why? The UK is moving to stand on its own. So let them do just that. The UK is capitalist. The US is capitalist. Let the markets work out supply/demand balancing.

I propose we just banish August going forward. It is no longer invited to Austin. We get kids back to school sooner. Start football sooner. And skip 20 days above 100 degrees. Sounds like a win.

As much as I think Brexit is a huge mistake and don’t want to see it happen...I don’t think Boris has made a mistake here. There is no political figure in UK that can stop Brexit and Boris doesn’t limit himself to conventional rules. Much like Trump. Because the default action is hard crash Brexit, it’s going to happen. How long Boris remains PM post Brexit is open to wild speculation. All depends on if the fears of Brexit are wildly overblown or surprisingly accurate. But even if this is all that Boris accomplishes as PM, he will have marked his place in history.

I assume any UK-US trade deal would require Congressional approval? I dont see the Democrats giving Trump any legislation as he enters his Election year.

Sounds like UK and EU are both in for a lot of pain when hard Brexit happens. Yet Financial Markets continue to act as if there is no major concern here. Yes the currency continues to devalue...but if even a bit of the fear forecasts of Brexit come true...the UK could be a shit show next year. Scotland and Northern Ireland seeking Independence from England would be hilarious as a response.

Nope. Sell button works fine. Just my brain and emotions that are broken. Won’t let me realize the paper loss. The emotions are afraid maybe the stock will turn around after I sell it...couldn’t live with the shame of that. So I keep riding it lower.

I did that at $18 and wish I could get out at this point.

In speaking for ERCOT planning, wind is absolutely planned for in the SARA report. In aggregate, total ERCOT wind generation capacity can be statistically forecast to produce a certain amount of energy at given times of the year. ERCOT produces a discount factor for nameplate wind generation capacity. This is for planning purposes. Will we see deviations from this forecasted volume in real time production on any given day? Absolutely. However a predicted amount of wind generation can be forecast for planning purposes. This is no different then in aggregate you have Y nameplate capacity for thermal generation for the ERCOT grid. ERCOT forecasts a certain amount of that generationthat will be on planned and unplanned outage for planning purposes. Will you see deviations from that number in real time? Absolutely. Will large deviations cause real time pricing volatility? Possibly.

This thread has become about as useless as a coal plant in a $2/mmbtu natural gas world. I don’t have much of value to add. But I can answer yes to all 3 of Brisket’s above questions. So I guess I have that going for me.

If the recession actually plays out through the end of the year...it will be ugly. The most surprising thing to me is that it took this long to come about.

Today’s shafting was total butt fuckery compared to yesterday.

Griddy ERCOT customers getting shafted today.

If you are on Griddy in ERCOT, tomorrow could be very....interesting. ERCOT Load Forecast ERCOT load forecast for 8/12/19....LF is >1000 mw higher than scheduled generation. Maybe more wind shows up or maybe more thermal generation shows up....or maybe the Load Forecast disappoints and load comes in lower. If none of those happens...real time pricing should see some real fireworks.

So long Surly...Trump’s coming for you.

Pretty sure if my lawn could talk...it would just mutter “don’t bother watering me...it’s too fucking hot regardless of how much water you give me...I just want to shrivel up and die”

My kids basically refuse to go outside in this heat. Can’t blame them.

^^ He doesn’t give a shit. He knows the path he is on and isn’t going to change because a few local protestors.

I was confused with the OP...thinking he was returning to delivering pizza. In that context...the whole post was gibberish. Not until I read some of the responses mentioning spades did I realize my error.

Well this looks fun this morning.

Enjoy your 1.7” 78757 got a whopping 0.16 inch.