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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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  1. This addition is all about getting another solid ‘stache on campus.
  2. I find his response to be very strange. I was just trying to be helpful, and then he just completely ignores reality and doubles down without even thinking about it, looking into it, nothing. Just a complete lug head. Weird.
  3. Im so sorry we aren’t all here to do work for you to help you not look like an uninformed rube. A simple 15 second google would have enabled you to understand why you’re wrong, but given what we all know about you from your posting history, your response is right on brand. Rex Kramer - “ Doubling down on dumb in the face of facts since 1999. “
  4. I just explained to you the facts of the rule.
  5. There have been multiple posts showing the actual targeting rule, which requires one of four other conditions besides head to head contact. The hit didn’t have any of those four. It’s the same reason the hit on Bond wasn’t called.
  6. I’m right there with you. But I do believe that somehow a scenario will emerge that gets the whole system back on a sustainable track and away from the really bad scenarios. I just can’t envision it right now. Maybe really sluggish economies combined with some significant government spending cuts, but not so bad that we are plunged into deep recessions. In that scenario Phil will be happy.
  7. I knew when I posted that stat it would be immediately met with rebuttals and rationalizations That's Surly, and pretty much every message board, in a nutshell. People just want to either argue or make themselves feel better. But the reallity is that giving up one passing TD the whole season between the book-ended Oregon games is a fantastic feat, even if you were going up against G5 teams every week. As far as Texas' D, I think most on Surly would argue that Texas' defense was one of the top three in the country. I'm not quite sure where OSU sits. They do lead in points allowed. I haven't watched them enough this year. They are obviously very good.
  8. I don’t know if this has been posted already, but if you weren’t already a bit concerned about OSU, going into yesterday’s Oregon game OSU had not given up a passing TD in any game since the first Oregon game. Holy cow.
  9. There have been at least half a dozen posts showing the four additional criteria that must be met for targeting. The hit did not meet any of those four criteria. While at the time I thought it was targeting, I also didn’t know the full rule, nor did anyone else. It’s the same reason the hit on Bond wasn’t called targeting. I don’t know why you aren’t aware of this given how much it’s been discussed on Surly and elsewhere.
  10. I’ve posted multiple times in the past few months that the assumptions of rates just dropping down into the 5% range is not a slam dunk because of the threat of inflation. That is still true. I also said I personally felt rates would drop, but that it’s not guaranteed. It’s all about inflation. The reason is massive government spending deficits. Now we have two new data points suggesting a recession: CMBS and credit card soaring default rates. A recession would very likely drop mortgage rates, but it might be a short temporary timeframe or not go all the way down into the fives. Why? The damn scary future facing us now is potential stagflation. The recession hits, deficits get even worse, the government cuts interest rates, Trump policies are inflationary, and that causes inflation to get worse. In this situation mortgage rates could do anything. If we have a nice normal shallow recession, with minimal rates cuts, sane Trump policies, or the government somehow manages a soft landing, and inflation rates stay low, then mortgage rates could settle into the fives. My WAG for 2025 lowest 30 year mortgage rates are: <5% 10% chance 5-6% 65% chance 6%+ 25% chance Just my opinion .
  11. I see that you don’t even realize several of the people you are arguing with, myself included, are ex or current software developers. At some point you’ll need to look in the mirror to finally see who’s full of shit on this thread.
  12. Ok I’ve been waiting for three things, and all three have happened. The yield curve uninverted, the commercial real estate defaults are soaring, and credit card defaults are soaring. This will result in major spending pullbacks to offset the current government overspending. Signs of a recession, job cuts, and more rate cuts ought to happen this year, dampening inflation fears. Finally! Now hopefully we don’t go into a deep recession. https://www.newsweek.com/credit-card-defaults-skyrocket-americans-unable-pay-their-debts-2007843 https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1874574095104295155
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