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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. Hahaha. It’s so bad that whenever either my wife and I say “identical”, in any social situation, we stop, look at each other, and go “I - (clap) DENTICAL!” It’s ridiculous.
  2. I’ve watched My Cousin Vinny 112 times.
  3. Interesting side note. Extensive research on men’s lives have shown that the 40’s is the second cockiest decade in a typical man’s life, behind the teens. It results from a high level of confidence built from success in relationships and career during their 20’s and 30’s. The decade of the 50’s is when most men became more aware and philosophical about their life and the world around them. However, some men get stuck and fly through their 50’s not progressing, leading to higher levels of frustration, unhappiness, closed thinking, and conflict in relationships. We’ve got all types on Surly, I’m sure.
  4. Today is Texas A&M National Football Day. 8-4.
  5. It’s a team with some talent, a lot of gaps, and a pretty easy schedule outside the top 4-5 teams they play. 8-4 seems certain.
  6. I love how this administration has rooms full of people scrambling around to look for any obscure statistics they can find and serve up to rubes like Chickensandwich for distribution so they can obscure the damage they are doing to the economy.
  7. I actually don't mind Taylor Swift. Listen to some of her stuff, and about every other genre. Sydney must be having a mid-life crisis. He's complaining about old people in multiple threads, despite the fact he's pretty old too. Methinks he doth protest too much.
  8. That’s good because if she was quite a bit younger than Taylor that would present a problem.
  9. You methodically built up tremendous credibility on Surly over many years. It’s been an impressive run. But you just completely destroyed it all in one post. You are now on the level of Rocko, TxTow, and Helobious.
  10. I just spent weeks building spreadsheets to analyze these scenarios. Roth conversions are the mechanism to deal with that, or saving more in after tax accounts rather than just IRA’s. However, there was an interesting article written about the “widow tax” that debunks some of the perceived cost of it. The guy does make a decent point. It’s a bit along the lines of what Imammac is saying https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/learning/publications/journal/DEC23-widow-tax-hit-debunked-OPEN?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwLh_ehleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHpKnpeidF9xh6NKlKm6oELFyhwwriQQx6E8LI7dbLLL91MCadhaAp7idd2kZ_aem_-ssQJ5Ve3SYMR9wW-42tKA
  11. I’m confused. How is it we are getting Astros announcers?
  12. There is light at the end of the tunnel for golfers who desire to improve but haven’t been able to do it. Here’s how. I’ve been playing golf for 50 years. My first lesson was with Harvey Penick and Ben Crenshaw at Mo Willie. However, over the years I only played a few times a year, went to the range a few times a year, and took a few lessons here and there sporadically. As a result I always struggled. In my 40’s I finally got down to a single digit handicap. However I had grooved a flawed swing. So I could never improve from that. Then, in 2015, I experienced a number of injuries that kept me out of the game until 2021. Once back, I still didn’t improve and had lost my single digit handicap. It was bad. Breaking 100 became a challenge. Finally, in 2024, about a year ago, I finally said “enough”. I was either going to fix my game once and for all, or quit. So I tore my swing down to the beginning, and began taking a few lessons from various folks in Austin. None of the instructors helped much at all. That was really frustrating. But in parallel I did two things. I joined an online golf service to finally really learn about the golf swing. And I joined an indoor golf simulator service to get feedback from a Trackman device on my swing. I also started playing more regularly, once or twice a week. Last week I finally broke 80 for the first time in a long time, and followed that up with a 39 on 9. My handicap has dropped from 20 to 12 and I’m on my way to an 8 or better. I’m confident I’ll get there. So what have been the keys so far? 1. Learn everything you can yourself about the golf swing. Amazingly over 50 years I never really understood what causes hooks, slices, etc. I didn’t understand how the wrists should move in the swing. I didn’t understand swing planes. I was an idiot. I relied on instructors, but most instructors aren’t very good. 2. Practice, obviously, but get feedback from a simulator. It will tell you things an instructor alone can’t. 3. Work on all four parts of the game, or one part will kill your rounds: putting, chipping, irons, woods. 4. Be patient. I still have WTF moments and completely lose my swing every few days. I’ll go to the range and hit like a beginner. While I understand the golf swing much better, I still can’t diagnose which of the 40 different swing factors has gone wrong to ruin my swing on any given day. I hope to have that figured out in the next few months, though. That’s the last key piece. Because when I’m on, I am on! I just can’t figure out how to get back on when I’m off. It’s 1.2 steps forward and one step back. Good Luck!
  13. The other thing that could keep the economy from crashing and rates somewhat escalated is the irresponsible spending bill. It will just keep the party going for a few more years until the next election.
  14. Ha. As soon as CTJ posted about Evans I thought of my post on him. Terrible prediction. Not my finest moment.
  15. Libertarians are the dumbest of the dumb people. It literally only takes five minutes of thought to realize that the government plays a critical role in the survival of a society. I took classes at UT from a Nobel Prize winning economist. He put it perfectly. When I asked why government had to play a role, he correctly pointed out that without government, human suffering would be unimaginable and unbearable.
  16. Here are the changes and revisions for the last several years. It is not surprising that a slowing economy is going to be revised downward. Statistics have to catch up with reality. U.S. Nonfarm Payroll Employment Changes and Revisions January 2018 through June 2025 (Second Quarter 2025) Data in thousands, seasonally adjusted Month/Year Initial Report (1st) Second Estimate (2nd) Final Estimate (3rd) Revision (2nd - 1st) Revision (3rd - 2nd) Total Revision (3rd - 1st) 2018 Jan 2018 200 239 176 +39 -63 -24 Feb 2018 313 326 324 +13 -2 +11 Mar 2018 103 135 155 +32 +20 +52 Apr 2018 164 159 175 -5 +16 +11 May 2018 223 244 268 +21 +24 +45 Jun 2018 213 248 208 +35 -40 -5 Jul 2018 157 147 165 -10 +18 +8 Aug 2018 201 270 286 +69 +16 +85 Sep 2018 134 118 119 -16 +1 -15 Oct 2018 250 237 274 -13 +37 +24 Nov 2018 155 176 196 +21 +20 +41 Dec 2018 312 222 227 -90 +5 -85 2019 Jan 2019 304 311 312 +7 +1 +8 Feb 2019 20 33 56 +13 +23 +36 Mar 2019 196 189 153 -7 -36 -43 Apr 2019 263 224 216 -39 -8 -47 May 2019 75 72 62 -3 -10 -13 Jun 2019 224 193 178 -31 -15 -46 Jul 2019 164 159 166 -5 +7 +2 Aug 2019 130 168 219 +38 +51 +89 Sep 2019 136 180 193 +44 +13 +57 Oct 2019 128 156 152 +28 -4 +24 Nov 2019 266 256 261 -10 +5 -5 Dec 2019 145 147 184 +2 +37 +39 2020 Jan 2020 225 273 214 +48 -59 -11 Feb 2020 273 275 251 +2 -24 -22 Mar 2020 -701 -881 -1,373 -180 -492 -672 Apr 2020 -20,537 -20,687 -20,787 -150 -100 -250 May 2020 2,509 2,699 2,725 +190 +26 +216 Jun 2020 4,800 4,791 4,781 -9 -10 -19 Jul 2020 1,763 1,734 1,761 -29 +27 -2 Aug 2020 1,371 1,489 1,493 +118 +4 +122 Sep 2020 661 672 711 +11 +39 +50 Oct 2020 638 610 654 -28 +44 +16 Nov 2020 245 336 264 +91 -72 +19 Dec 2020 -140 -227 -306 -87 -79 -166 2021 Jan 2021 49 166 233 +117 +67 +184 Feb 2021 379 468 536 +89 +68 +157 Mar 2021 916 770 785 -146 +15 -131 Apr 2021 266 278 269 +12 -9 +3 May 2021 559 583 614 +24 +31 +55 Jun 2021 850 938 962 +88 +24 +112 Jul 2021 943 1,053 1,091 +110 +38 +148 Aug 2021 235 366 483 +131 +117 +248 Sep 2021 194 312 379 +118 +67 +185 Oct 2021 531 546 648 +15 +102 +117 Nov 2021 210 249 647 +39 +398 +437 Dec 2021 199 510 588 +311 +78 +389 2022 Jan 2022 467 481 504 +14 +23 +37 Feb 2022 678 750 714 +72 -36 +36 Mar 2022 431 428 398 -3 -30 -33 Apr 2022 428 436 368 +8 -68 -60 May 2022 390 384 386 -6 +2 -4 Jun 2022 372 398 293 +26 -105 -79 Jul 2022 528 526 537 -2 +11 +9 Aug 2022 315 315 292 0 -23 -23 Sep 2022 263 315 269 +52 -46 +6 Oct 2022 261 284 263 +23 -21 +2 Nov 2022 263 256 290 -7 +34 +27 Dec 2022 223 260 239 +37 -21 +16 2023 Jan 2023 517 504 472 -13 -32 -45 Feb 2023 311 326 248 +15 -78 -63 Mar 2023 236 165 217 -71 +52 -19 Apr 2023 253 294 217 +41 -77 -36 May 2023 339 306 281 -33 -25 -58 Jun 2023 209 185 105 -24 -80 -104 Jul 2023 187 157 236 -30 +79 +49 Aug 2023 187 227 165 +40 -62 -22 Sep 2023 336 297 262 -39 -34 -74 Oct 2023 150 150 105 0 -45 -45 Nov 2023 199 173 182 -26 +9 -17 Dec 2023 216 333 290 +117 -43 +74 2024 Jan 2024 353 229 256 -124 +27 -97 Feb 2024 275 270 236 -5 -34 -39 Mar 2024 303 315 310 +12 -5 +7 Apr 2024 175 165 108 -10 -57 -67 May 2024 272 218 216 -54 -2 -56 Jun 2024 206 179 118 -27 -61 -88 Jul 2024 114 89 144 -25 +55 +30 Aug 2024 142 159 78 +17 -81 -64 Sep 2024 254 223 255 -31 +32 +1 Oct 2024 12 36 43 +24 +7 +31 Nov 2024 227 212 261 -15 +49 +34 Dec 2024 256 307 323 +51 +16 +67 2025 Q1-Q2 Jan 2025 143 125 111 -18 -14 -32 Feb 2025 151 117 102 -34 -15 -49 Mar 2025 228 185 120 -43 -65 -108 Apr 2025 177 147 158 -30 +11 -19 May 2025 139 144 — +5 — — Jun 2025 147 — — — — — Key Notes: Initial Report (1st): First estimate released ~3 weeks after reference month Second Estimate (2nd): Revised estimate released the following month Final Estimate (3rd): Final sample-based estimate released 2 months after initial Data shows employment changes in thousands of jobs (seasonally adjusted) Most recent data shows June 2025 with 147,000 jobs added initially, with April and May 2025 revisions showing combined upward revision of 16,000 The preliminary 2025 benchmark revision will be released on September 9, 2025 Revision Patterns: 2018-2019: Generally small revisions with mixed directions 2020: Large pandemic-related revisions, especially in March-April 2020 2021: Significant upward revisions as economic recovery estimates were refined 2022-2023: Mixed revisions with some substantial downward adjustments 2024: Continued pattern of mixed revisions, with several months showing significant downward adjustments in final estimates 2025: Early months showing predominantly downward revisions
  17. I say this with all due respect. The reason job reports always have to be revised is because the calculations are based on very minimal information. If you actually walk thru the process of how the numbers are estimated, you quickly realize the level of accuracy desired is impossible to reach quickly. It’s not incompetence. It’s simply math. Think of mm of accuracy on a football field. I continue to be amazed by people who are obviously educated that get conned by the subterfuge being created by this administration. The reality is really not that complicated. The administration is pursuing trade policies that have the potential to raise the rates of goods and services for Americans and potentially ignite inflation again, creating a financial disaster. The Fed can’t cut rates until there is clear data that inflation won’t take off again, because that’s the thing about inflation. Once it starts it’s painful to stop it. Do you have no knowledge of what happened in the 1970’s and early 1980’s? I sure do and it wasn’t pleasant. 110% of this problem is on the back of the guy in the Oval Office, but because people fall for his bullshit, they think the blame lies elsewhere. He just fired the BLS guy not because he’s incompetent, but so he can create fake statistics and lie to everyone. Amazingly, people still just don’t get it yet. With all that said, a cut is coming soon. Why? Because he’s purposely driving the country into the ditch so that he and his billionaire buddies can go buy up assets at reduced prices, using funds that he’s gotten as bribes from countries, pardoned criminals, crypto rubes, and a thousand other schemes. Of you don’t believe it, just listen to his own words on a Netflix show where he states his desire to have crashes so he can buy cheap. This country is getting conned like it never has before.
  18. If HIPAA is such a critical law with huge legal liability for healthcare companies, then why am I able to always hear every word being spoken between a doctor and their patient in the room next door?
  19. The science is settled. They are among us.
  20. The waters of high yield investments can be very difficult to navigate. At the end of the day any investment must have a decent total return in order to be successful. Many high yield investments just end up eroding the principal, so the yields give a misleading view of the investment’s return. And to make it worse, they constantly turn unrealized gains into realized gains that are taxed. Not saying there’s not a place for higher yielding investments. Just really must understand how they get those yields.
  21. I know there’s a lot of skepticism about DeAndre Moore, but I personally believe he’s going to have a big year. He flashed at times and I think his hands are better than he’s shown.
  22. One of the biggest urban legends ever. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/rod-stewart-addresses-stomach-pump-story-never-thought-182403429.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAjepV_AAAJxb7-VVSgaGwFHwNsT3SREZJgpKNKhdmuOd34mIThZ3ChDrMav7oDGwOXSpZHobG6U04nkeKL-XeyVvk5luFnGOWggP5mM12XreXGrciZAs7i2FE50qKeL4XPm2ZmugYUbtx4MLK3PFb2xUA1RXLzpN6iaKB38ggka
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