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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. Agreed. The post retirement financial planning and projection tools don’t do a great job today assessing the risk between a portfolio with say, a 3% dividend rate that could be applied to expenses, vs a 2% dividend rate. It’s difficult to tell whether you could avoid some sequence of returns risk by having some lower return/higher dividend investments. Because while that extra dividend helps pay the bills and avoid stock sales in early years of retirement, if the overall stock returns don’t grow enough over the years to offset higher spending due to inflation, you’re stuck anyway. For me it became an academic exercise because I can cover expenses with just dividends from a standard retirement portfolio. But if I had that decision, I would probably make sure I covered a decent portion but not all of my expenses with dividend investments, and then the rest with total return investments. There might be some times here and there where I had to sell stocks, but not a ton.
  2. I went down the dividend yield path for a few years investing in, and carefully watching, their performance. I ended up dramatically rolling back my investments in higher dividend stocks because at the end of the day a company must generate earnings and grow those earnings in order for an investor to receive money in the form of dividends or stock price appreciation. I found that high dividend stocks might deliver great dividends, but over time their stock prices offset some of those distributed earnings, or the stock price didn’t grow enough to make their performance attractive as compared to other investments in terms of total return. However, I’m not saying there is no role for high dividend stocks in a portfolio. There is something to be said for locking in the returns from dividends, as opposed to having all your returns in price appreciation. As a result I do hold a few higher dividend ETF’s, VYM and VYMI. I stay away from higher yield stuff because there are real questions about the total return potential over the long term. There is some pretty big downside risk with a lot of it. Of course with the market valuations so high right now, having some money in higher dividend investments could end up being a somewhat savvy move.
  3. I watched games from the second row under Weltlich, and that’s definitely not where my seats were. As far as Tennessee, I watched regular season hockey instead. Wake me up once he’s fired.
  4. Performing my semi-annual review of TV options, cable versus streaming. Here are the cost results for January 2025. Bottom line is that switching off U-Verse in favor of YTTV or Hulu+Live TV will save $660-900 per year, but comes at the cost of either a) more ads, b) making channel changes/finding programs more difficult as you switch between streaming services, c) losing sports team coverage of Astros, and/or Rangers, and/or Spurs. It's probably worth changing, but if $660 per year isn't that important, then probably not worth changing.
  5. While I appreciate what Ewers has done at Texas, I don’t ever want to watch a completely immobile QB at Texas ever again.
  6. Sark’s eyes were severely bloodshot in his espn interview. I’m going to envision him pulling an all-nighter to create a masterpiece of a game plan.
  7. I’d be happy to give them away to someone who can fit into them if they want them.
  8. Today is the 10th, as in number 10, as in the greatest college quarterback in history who wore number 10. We gawt this. #fate.
  9. Troy Aikman on a radio show today had a really interesting comment about NIL. He was approached about providing NIL money to get a top QB to UCLA. He contributed money to get, I think, Dante Moore in 2023 (he didn’t say the players name). He was really pissed because the QB didn’t play much in his first year, then transferred. Aikman said he was done giving money for players to UCLA. I wonder if they gave this QB a ton of upfront money.
  10. only if she also wants someone with an 0 for 172 Surly prediction record.
  11. Craig Way on the ticket this morning said he doesn’t know if Saek has interest in the nfl but that he does love college football so much he watches it in his spare time.
  12. Same. I thought I’d have some sort of nostalgic interest in it, but nope, I couldn’t give a fuck about the entire conference or any of the teams.
  13. I finally put a poster on ignore after they spammed the recruiting thread with something like 5 straight posts before someone else posted. It was ridiculous. Ignoring a poster is a game changer. Now when I see the “you’ve chosen to ignore…”, and I see it A LOT, it has a very calming effect, like a nice indica. I highly recommend it.
  14. I have no idea what the real situation is with Sark. I've been trying to get a hint but no one is talking. The coaches salaries in the NFL can be significantly higher than what he makes at Texas right now. That has to be a factor. But there is also the asswhip of recruiting. I know a guy on staff and he said college recruiting is an absolute beatdown. He said it is literally 7/24/365 and very intense. edit: also would not be surprised to see Urban Meyor Texas talks, round II, with a much better chance of going through the second time because of the decline of the bag game and Urban's epic failure in the NFL. Not saying it's a good idea, only that some folks with money would be interested in that scenario.
  15. I have a 37 year old pair of brown Dan Post lizard boots in size 8.5 that are too small for me anymore, but still decent shape. My feet are size 9.5/10 these days. Any thoughts what to do with them?
  16. no, that's why i posted it. I looked up his profile and saw he was very highly rated but according to 247 didn't have great offers. So, why is he so high rated if he's getting smoked at camps and has a weak offer list?
  17. Adonyss Currie is a top 50 national prospect with "offers" from all the major programs, but a strange short-list of suitors. I wonder what the story is on him. https://247sports.com/player/adonyss-currie-46138579/
  18. This is a cool story, but I have to protest the use of too many annoying terms, including "braggadocio", "libations", "gent", "jocks", and "riff-raff". Please update the 19th century language to at least the 20th. thank you.
  19. After scrolling through a thread of completely regarded opinions, it was encouraging to finally see someone get the top four order right. All of the posts ignoring Street or Layne because they don’t know anything about them are stupid. Who gives a shit about a list that only considers a person’s own lifetime and experience. My three year old granddaughter’s list is 1. Ehlinger 2. Ewers. Does anyone give a shit? No. Quit wasting our time. Layne and Street were fantastic. If you don’t know that then crack open a book or type something into ChatGPT and pull your head out of your ass. This post nailed the order, except I’m not sure about Ewers at 5. I think that’s right but need to think about the fringe QB’s. The two most underrated in the discussion are James Brown and Carlisle.
  20. I don’t. The source is the Austin MLS data.
  21. This is only a month, but it looks like, for now, The Austin real estate market may have bottomed and is starting to recover. Look at the November cross-over. Other stats like days of inventory, etc. are still okay as well. Note that this is with 6-7% interest rates. If/when rates come down, that should help even more. A recession would obviously be a wild card that could torpedo real estate markets around the country. I've been telling potential homebuyers that buying now may be a good idea. The only downside is a recession, but that would actually be good news because rates would drop and they could refinance.
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