I think most people have felt for awhile that the employment situation seemed worse than the reported numbers. Iāve certainly felt that way for about a year.
But with that said, you do realize that there are 160 million people employed in the US, right? The unemployment rate is still not high, and these number adjustments are still relatively small on a large denominator.
We havenāt even begun to see the types of job loss numbers you see in a recession. Those numbers are coming, though, because of the government policies being enacted. The economy is being driven into a ditch as we speak, and itās not due to Fed policy. Itās a President looking for someone to blame. The BLS numbers have become the latest politicized topic for people to try and bolster their āteamā.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
Rate cuts are definitely coming now, but too much too fast and the inflation problem that is already a problem (PPI 3%, etc) will become a serious problem. Oh, and the inconsistent tarriff policies, global foreign relations disasters, and other bad policies make it virtually impossible for the Fed to do their job. The problem is this President. Period.
There is a reason this administration has been begging for rate cuts. They donāt care about inflation, and especially donāt care about the fact inflation is an incredibly regressive tax on the lower income populations. They care only about business growth for their wealthy donors and their own business interests. And there is a real chance he wants a recession so the wealthy can buy up even more of the countryās wealth during it.
All this to say that the Fed has not been driving thru the rearview mirror, and I donāt think youāve fully realized who this President is really working for.