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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. I’ve posted multiple times in the past few months that the assumptions of rates just dropping down into the 5% range is not a slam dunk because of the threat of inflation. That is still true. I also said I personally felt rates would drop, but that it’s not guaranteed. It’s all about inflation. The reason is massive government spending deficits. Now we have two new data points suggesting a recession: CMBS and credit card soaring default rates. A recession would very likely drop mortgage rates, but it might be a short temporary timeframe or not go all the way down into the fives. Why? The damn scary future facing us now is potential stagflation. The recession hits, deficits get even worse, the government cuts interest rates, Trump policies are inflationary, and that causes inflation to get worse. In this situation mortgage rates could do anything. If we have a nice normal shallow recession, with minimal rates cuts, sane Trump policies, or the government somehow manages a soft landing, and inflation rates stay low, then mortgage rates could settle into the fives. My WAG for 2025 lowest 30 year mortgage rates are: <5% 10% chance 5-6% 65% chance 6%+ 25% chance Just my opinion .
  2. Those three data points would certainly imply that.
  3. I see that you don’t even realize several of the people you are arguing with, myself included, are ex or current software developers. At some point you’ll need to look in the mirror to finally see who’s full of shit on this thread.
  4. That was the point fuckface.
  5. Ok I’ve been waiting for three things, and all three have happened. The yield curve uninverted, the commercial real estate defaults are soaring, and credit card defaults are soaring. This will result in major spending pullbacks to offset the current government overspending. Signs of a recession, job cuts, and more rate cuts ought to happen this year, dampening inflation fears. Finally! Now hopefully we don’t go into a deep recession. https://www.newsweek.com/credit-card-defaults-skyrocket-americans-unable-pay-their-debts-2007843 https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1874574095104295155
  6. Jesus Christ just stick with the browser for a few weeks and you’ll realize Tapa brings nothing of value to the table. It’s just getting used to the browser. I should know, I was on tapa forever. Immamac, I think you should just stop supporting tapa. It brings little to no value. The complainers are still wishing they had Microsoft DOS.
  7. ESPN did a breakdown of the 4th and 13 play. Quinn at the line of scrimmage with the clock running down, changed the blocking scheme and receiver routes so that golden would be open. Motherfucker had ice in his veins! That is why Sark sticks with Ewers.
  8. Hundreds of posts complaining about the corrupt lack of targeting call, and yet not one Aggie poster actually looked up and posted the rule, which clearly explains why it wasn’t called on Texas, or ASU earlier. These rubes are amazing in their stupidity and jealousy.
  9. Holy crap a bunch of crap predictions.
  10. We saw yet another game where Quinn had moments of greatness and moments of wtf, combined with his offensive coordinator making it very difficult on him, with shit rushing plans/execution and strange play calling at times and a few great play calls. It’s dizzying and I can’t deal with it.
  11. The best thing about this game is that ASU doesn’t have any other games, because it would be embarrassing watching them lose by 28 to any other of the playoff teams.
  12. 60 year old in the 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter, 4th quarter, and overtime -“I hate this game and this team.” No no no no no no no. That’s part of our problem.
  13. He had a lot of stats today, like most weeks. His coach relies on him heavily in all situations, producing those gaudy stats. He clearly gives it all, unlike many players. So, from that standpoint he deserves some accolades. But he’s also a bit of a jerk and seems to play up the limelight a lot, so I don’t find him likable at all.
  14. Our running game problems are not one player. It’s the entire mindset that is lacking.
  15. Jesus Christ they show that fuckhead’s face every thirty seconds.
  16. The stupidity with which this coaching staff and team has played has got to be an all-time embarrassment.
  17. Have had enough of seeing and hearing from Skattebo.
  18. I buy new cars every 8-10 years. It’s just the way I’m wired. I don’t like buying new cars every few years. I feel like it’s a waste of money, even though I could easily afford to buy more often. Also, I feel like it takes that long to really get the full experience from a new model. My Lexus hit 10 years old today, but it has only 53k miles on it. Work from home and retirement really dropped the mileage. But I still don’t feel like buying another car, especially given the low mileage. Here’s a tip for others. Every year you delay a $65-80k car purchase, you can make $3k+ in interest or financing cost savings, and save probably another $1k or more in higher insurance costs, for a total savings of $4k that you could then spend on hookers and blow throughout the year.
  19. What I would give to be a middle aged dipshit instead of an aging one.
  20. I just want to point out how difficult it is to build a sustainable successful nil organization. This story reiterates that. Please think about that the next time you are watching a Longhorn game, perusing recruiting lists, or attending a game. What the Texas NIL guys have accomplished thus far is phenomenal. It’s very difficult to run an nil organization lean and in compliance. These guys have done it.
  21. Mack couldn’t coach his way out of a paper bag, but he did come up with two good ideas. First, he unified most of the factions at Texas. Second, he came up with the marketing strategy of Texas being a second “family” for urban athletes craving a family-like atmosphere. These days every program tries to pitch that, but back in the 90’s that positioning was pretty effective for recruiting. Mack is a politician with a lot of personal failings who will hurt Texas if it helps him. We should erect a wall at the city limits.
  22. Troy Aikman on the Ticket said that, in his opinion, 75% of the failed QB’s in the NFL could have been successful had they received coaching from someone who knew how to use their talents best. It immediately caused me to think about Fisher/Young. He said that without Norv Turner Aikman would have busted out of the league within a few years. It truly is terrible how Fisher mismanaged a QB who could have had a career like Lamar Jackson. It pisses me off every time I think about it.
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