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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. McConaughey‘s orange leather blazer has more cracks than central Texas sidewalk.
  2. Fantastic humblebrag. Only mistake was not inviting me.
  3. Yes, ought to be able to prove it with a 10 second check of the log, unless the selling agent cheaped out with some lame box that isn’t internet connected. In which case the seller agent and seller are learning a valuable lesson about saving $100 and potentially losing thousands.
  4. Let’s be clear. Penn state sucks on offense. Defense? Not sure because Jennings is playing like a toddler.
  5. Half way there Nostradamus.
  6. Saban called this on GameDay.
  7. Speaking of enshittification, I received an email notice that my Amazon package had been delivered to my mailbox, which is one of those freestanding ones with boxes for about 15 homes. Of course, there was no package. Told the Amazon vendor and then went to the post office in person to let them know. Past experience told me the carrier probably put it in the wrong box. With me standing there, the post office guy conformed it had been delivered to the box and told the person on the route to go back and check. She never did. So then I filed an online form. Two days later, nothing. So I got fed up and the next day stalked the neighborhood until I found the postal truck, followed it to our common mailbox area, and then flagged the carrier when she got out of the truck. I told her the package was lost, and she said she’d already looked for it and didn’t find it. So I told her to specifically look in the box with the numerical address but one street over. Of course, there it is. So think about the number of instances of mistakes. Three at least, and I have to go find my own effing packages. Ridiculous.
  8. For a number 1 ranked team, Oregon sure is signing a lot of transfers. Something doesn’t smell right.
  9. Y’all are absolutely right. Anything can happen in 2025 and “definitely” is the wrong word. We all thought the internet bubble would pop by 1998 and it took another two years. With Trump in office he could easily just fiddle around like his first term, do nothing, and the market could keep popping up another 12 months while the debt and deficits get even more concerning. The eventual recession caused by dealing with the deficit could get delayed into later years. My only original point was responding to the post that said everyone is forecasting a good 2025. There are quite a few respected financial people that aren’t.
  10. I don’t know who you listen to for market forecasts, but the market is at one of the highest CAPE ratios in history. Buffet is sitting at high levels of cash, and a whole waft of investors, like myself, are bracing for the inevitable major market pullback that will definitely happen once the new administration comes in and starts dealing with the deficit, social security, and Medicare. Pain is coming my friends. And many investors know it. You can’t listen to pundits or investment advisors. They are all compronised. They make money regardless of the environment so they will often tout upside over down side.
  11. I don't write him off but I think a lot of people don't think much of him for the exact reason you highlight. If they haven't heard much about him it must mean he hasn't impressed people much, or otherwise we would have heard more about him. As someone else said, that whole thought process is wrong. Moore is a similar example of a guy who didn't get a lot of press who has shown big flashes, as compared to Wingo who you could tell was a star in the making as soon as he was on the field. It seems like there are 4-6 players every year on the depth chart at various positions who you don't hear much about and then all of the sudden when inserted into the starting lineup you immediately see their talent.
  12. I was thinking that given the salty freshman class coming in, the WR need wasn't super high, but have realized after going through the names that there are too many moving parts right now to count on the existing roster to address all the gaps: Freshmen: Lockett, French, McCutcheon, Terry; I would have thought 1-3 of these could get significant minutes. Is the offense really that difficult to master? Playing early in the NIL era is going to happen quite a bit I would think. Sophomores: Dubose (possibly portal), Livingstone (a superstar just patiently waiting for his chance ), Butler (meh?), Niblett (pot transfer but they want), Wingo (starter); 1-3 from here. Juniors: Moore - 1 from here. Seniors: Bond (gone?), Golden (gone?), Bolden (gone); 0-1 from here. So they've got somewhere between 3-8 in the mix for next year. Keys: Golden or Bond staying, Niblett staying, 1-2 freshmen balling out, Livingstone surpassing the lack of hype.
  13. FAA warning drones will be shot down. They obviously read Dbeasy’s demands.
  14. I’m amazed this thread is still going full speed ahead. Y’all have some serious stamina to beat a dead horse to a bloody pulp.
  15. I’ve said the following many times before on shaggy. You can reasonably predict the behavior of people and the outcome of situations by knowing the single most important life motivator for a person. With Trump it’s become pretty clear. He strives for as much money and stature as possible, that he can then demonstrate to the world, because he believes that will make up for his father’s enormous disappointment in him. So he can be easily manipulated as long as it results in the maximum amount of money to him and strong stature. But with Elon I’m still not quite 100% sure. Is it to be massively richer than anyone on the planet, and he will go to any extreme to do it? Is it to be the most famous person in the world? Or is it something else? If Elon’s goals don’t align with Trump’s desire for massive wealth and stature, I could see Trump actually just pushing him out of the way at the appropriate time, with Elon left holding his dick in his hands. But most likely this is a massive play by both to grift massive amounts of money via privatization and other actions.
  16. Here is my wag under Trump. We all know Trump will do anything and everything to juice the economy for the next four years, so that he can take credit for it. But, there are conflicting policies right now that would significantly hurt the economy. He will definitely extend the tax cuts. That’s a given. But letting Elon loose to reduce spending by any significant amount? The only thing they will do is make sure the spending cuts take effect four to five years from now, so that it doesn’t torpedo the economy in the next four years. He will then make a bunch of speeches about getting government spending and deficits under control while not actually delivering anything. At this point Elon will realize he’s been snookered. Elon actually believes he will accomplish something. To be fair, they will fix social security and medicare by extending the retirement age, reducing benefits, and modestly increasing the SS cutoff point. Then, he will implement some lame tariffs with a bunch of loopholes to make it seem like he did something when he won’t have. Same with immigration. Same with every policy. Just like his first term, he will talk a big game but actually not deliver any real impact. So then inflation will creep up because he’s really done nothing. He will blame Biden and let inflation run a little hot, which it needs to do in order for debt as a percentage of gdp to get under control. By year 3-4 of his administration, the inflation effects will put the economy in danger, finally slowing inflation and forcing rates cuts. The rate cuts will get him through the end of his presidency. He will have served another four years and really not done anything other than benefit from the current government overspending that is partially responsible for driving the economy. Our debt level will be scary large for the next administration.
  17. I love what the OTF guys are doing, but my focus in life is to shit on Finebaum whenever the opportunity presents itself. It's a vow I took when Texas to the SEC was announced.
  18. Finebaum is an SEC dick licking sycophant. Who gives a shit what that ass has to say about anything. Every word out of his mouth is based on an agenda.
  19. Ya more accurately, spending growth will potentially be lower than its otherwise might be, maybe. Or maybe not.
  20. This should be no surprise. I’ve been hinting at this for months. The yield curve was inverted and it MUST un-invert, which it finally did this week. I’ve personally felt that this switch in Fed thinking about 2025 was definitely going to happen because inflation data is still a bit high and the economy is still relatively strong. But things will likely change next year, and create new Fed views. If you dig deeper into the inflation data from the most recent report, it’s actually very good. Most categories are down into the 2% range. That leaves the incoming administration as the main influence for the economy and inflation. There is a ton of uncertainty over that. Trump has been throwing out all sorts of policies. My personal opinion is that excess government spending is the main inflationary item, so even if Trump uses tariffs and other inflationary policies, it will be offset by significant cuts in government spending, leading to a slowing of the economy and less inflation pressure. But because his policies are so radical, it could have very unintended effects, such as re-ignition of inflation. If I were a home buyer I would buy now. Why? Because not owning a home in a higher inflation environment is a financially very bad decision. Two, rates could end up higher to fight unintended inflation. Three, even if you lock in higher rates now, you can refinance later. This unidirectional option is a powerful financial tool for borrowers. In the tech company discussion above, tariffs aren’t the main influence on employment. All tech companies keep excess employment during good economic times. Why? They are hitting their numbers and want to spend money on various less critical projects and products to drive future growth. When times get tough, they all cut. It’s a formula used by every single tech company out there. For those companies that are growing spectacularly, obviously they don’t reduce headcount, but they do slow hiring of planned growth. That could be the scenario with Apple. Austin has priced in the opening of the Apple campus and a certain number of employees. That growth plan may change.
  21. Thank goodness I moved everything I owned to United healthcare yesterday.
  22. We’ve just been very unlucky with the previous coaches: 1. Barnes had personal problems that led to on-court lack of success which led to his firing. He’s got those issues under control and back to winning again. 2. Smart had personal problems that led to on-court lack of success which led to his firing. He’s got those issues under control and back to winning again. 3. Beard had personal problems that led to his firing. His new destination doesn’t care if they are under control or not because they are winning.
  23. Same. First he had a lazy post dripping with what could be interpreted as sarcasm because of his laziness, then whined. Negged.
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