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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. I say this with all due respect. The reason job reports always have to be revised is because the calculations are based on very minimal information. If you actually walk thru the process of how the numbers are estimated, you quickly realize the level of accuracy desired is impossible to reach quickly. It’s not incompetence. It’s simply math. Think of mm of accuracy on a football field. I continue to be amazed by people who are obviously educated that get conned by the subterfuge being created by this administration. The reality is really not that complicated. The administration is pursuing trade policies that have the potential to raise the rates of goods and services for Americans and potentially ignite inflation again, creating a financial disaster. The Fed can’t cut rates until there is clear data that inflation won’t take off again, because that’s the thing about inflation. Once it starts it’s painful to stop it. Do you have no knowledge of what happened in the 1970’s and early 1980’s? I sure do and it wasn’t pleasant. 110% of this problem is on the back of the guy in the Oval Office, but because people fall for his bullshit, they think the blame lies elsewhere. He just fired the BLS guy not because he’s incompetent, but so he can create fake statistics and lie to everyone. Amazingly, people still just don’t get it yet. With all that said, a cut is coming soon. Why? Because he’s purposely driving the country into the ditch so that he and his billionaire buddies can go buy up assets at reduced prices, using funds that he’s gotten as bribes from countries, pardoned criminals, crypto rubes, and a thousand other schemes. Of you don’t believe it, just listen to his own words on a Netflix show where he states his desire to have crashes so he can buy cheap. This country is getting conned like it never has before.
  2. If HIPAA is such a critical law with huge legal liability for healthcare companies, then why am I able to always hear every word being spoken between a doctor and their patient in the room next door?
  3. The science is settled. They are among us.
  4. The waters of high yield investments can be very difficult to navigate. At the end of the day any investment must have a decent total return in order to be successful. Many high yield investments just end up eroding the principal, so the yields give a misleading view of the investment’s return. And to make it worse, they constantly turn unrealized gains into realized gains that are taxed. Not saying there’s not a place for higher yielding investments. Just really must understand how they get those yields.
  5. I know there’s a lot of skepticism about DeAndre Moore, but I personally believe he’s going to have a big year. He flashed at times and I think his hands are better than he’s shown.
  6. One of the biggest urban legends ever. https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/rod-stewart-addresses-stomach-pump-story-never-thought-182403429.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAjepV_AAAJxb7-VVSgaGwFHwNsT3SREZJgpKNKhdmuOd34mIThZ3ChDrMav7oDGwOXSpZHobG6U04nkeKL-XeyVvk5luFnGOWggP5mM12XreXGrciZAs7i2FE50qKeL4XPm2ZmugYUbtx4MLK3PFb2xUA1RXLzpN6iaKB38ggka
  7. Why do they call it OvalTine? The jar’s round. The glass is round. They should call it RoundTine.
  8. Did no one else go to the Union theater at lunchtime to watch All My Children, ie Greg and Jenny? No? Uh, me neither.
  9. Nope. The real story of Kennedy is nowhere near the fan fiction his press machine put out over the years. He was an idiot in the Pacific. Yup.
  10. The picture is blurry. I think it’s a cottonmouth but there’s a slight chance it’s a water snake.
  11. This video really got me excited. I’ve been a Texas football fan since 1970, when my dad came back from Vietnam and decided we were going to finally settle down in Austin Texas. Almost immediately I was obsessed with the team. Nixon giving them the trophy. Roosevelt Leaks. Earl Campbell. There were a lot of highs and lows, of course culminating with 2006 in the Rose Bowl. I was there and it was glorious. For the first time since 2006 it feels like this program is at a place where it could have tremendous success again. The thing about Texas football history is that the program always peaks its head up for some glory from time to time, but rarely made a consistent run at the top over a long period of time. It’s hard to do. We have a chance to stay at the top as one of the truly elite programs year after year, and that’s an awesome opportunity. Go Arch. Go Horns. Let’s finally get one this year.
  12. One thing about a stock security or ETF with outsized returns is the fact there must be inherent risks in that pricing. The financial markets are wayyyyy too efficient to allow for such a large discrepancy to exist for more than a very short period of time. The risk is just probably not easily discernible.
  13. That is exactly the same thought I had. There are some interesting perspectives but the overall approach is going to fail miserably.
  14. I am most interested in seeing how the secondary performs. After years of being frustrated with our secondary, such as not turning their heads to look for the ball, etc. last year they finally broke thru and played really well. Up until that point I kept jokingly asking for a return of Akina, never believing that would actually happen, given not only his age but his struggles with zone coverage schemes. And now here we are with Akina. We are either going to be pleasantly surprised or cursing this hire for years. And I’m not sure at this point which way it’s going to go.
  15. Ya I’m on early retirement and there’s some good input in there.
  16. As a side note, I’m amazed at how everyone is ok with asset under management fees from .5-1%+ annually, forever. This creates huge drags on a portfolio, and the work financial planners do is relatively “fixed”. It’s one of the biggest rackets out there, along with 6% real estate commissions on $2M+ homes.
  17. Thanks for the inputs. We are already in retirement and are at the point of deciding whether to convert and how much. Our particular situation is such that the decision to convert is not obvious for multiple reasons. I’ve built complex spreadsheets to contemplate scenarios. Because it is complex, I’m unsure whether I’ve built them correctly. The reason I need a competent advisor is for them to run the scenarios on their tools to see how it compares to what I’ve done. I need a check on the math. I also don’t want just a basic CFP because many of them don’t understand all of the complexities of Roth. They just run the scenarios through their tool and give that to clients. Those tools have a lot of assumptions that may be right or wrong for the future. I want someone to talk with about assumptions in more detail.
  18. wtf are you talking about. I haven’t inherited shit. Whatever we have we made.
  19. Ok. So how are they getting 80%+ yields? Where is the return coming from? If underlying assets go up, it obviously enables payouts. But what is going up that much? And if things drop, which they will, then the crash will be significant too. Maybe not the full nav drop, but still significant. What am I not understanding?
  20. Can you explain this? I can’t quite follow what you are saying.
  21. Ok now I’m completely confused. After loving Tires, I watched his 2023 standup on Netflix. Absolute, worthless racist, stereotypical, lame comedy. Terrible.
  22. Dbeasy

    The Wire

    Wow. I just finished the whole thing. I wanted to watch The Wire because I’ve maintained Breaking Bad is the best series ever and some people would argue that The Wire is the best. i need to sleep on it a few days, but overall the show is incredibly good. Sopranos, Breaking Bad, The Wire. Legendary programs.
  23. You had no idea because you are dumber than any of the students at the schools you criticize. It’s completely obvious to anyone that for many families some sort of proximity to their home state is an important criteria. The fact you don’t even understand that basic fact further highlights you are a dim bulb. Given that I sat on the Advisory Board of UTD for several years, I had the opportunity to see a comprehensive competitive analysis of not only all the schools in Texas, but also border state schools, and the California college system. The real story here is that a college education in the state of Texas has many challenges as compared to a state like California, which literally has more than a dozen high quality schools for students who couldn’t get into UCLA or USC. As a result, quality Texas students who want a typical college experience have to look outside the borders of the State. Now run along Junior now that you’ve been completely embarrassed. And fuck off
  24. So basically you’re full of shit. Neither of those schools has any proximity to the state of Texas, and even if you ignore that the best you could come up with was USF and FSU? Bawwwaaaa!! The UTD recommendation mentioned earlier wasn’t bad, but they have limited quality degree options. You’re living in the 1990’s dude. Wake up.
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