Dbeasy

One of the better and more credible resources on the internet for retirement analysis is earlyretirementnow.com. He looks at bucket strategies (ie having cash), and SoRR in many of his blog posts. The thing about these retirement plans is that they are all based on assumptions. His analysis breaks thru the clutter to provide a realistic assessment of risk. The problem with most financial planners is that they want you to feel good about your plan. That way you keep using them. They do this by assuming pretty rosy scenarios for returns. And for the last 10-20 years that has worked out fine for most people. If you asked retirees whether they have more money today than they expected, most say yes. That’s because the stock market returns over the last several years have been very very good. But to do a thorough analysis on the true risks you need to backtest in history, and there have been periods where the returns were such that you ran out of money if you spent too much. There are many scenarios where someone can spend more than 4% of their funds and be just fine. But no one can just make a blanket statement that three years of cash solves all problems without provide very specific context of assumptions. As to being able to moderate spending during down years, yes that can absolutely help. However, on that blog you’ll see a very enlightening article that shows how even moderating spending can be unlikely to fix the problem if the future looks like some periods in the past.

Edit. NM.

I just saw a mock 2025 draft. Ethan Burke was 13th in the first round 👀

I know you are a financial planner so I won’t argue with you but a three year cash buffer absolutely does not address sequence of returns risk when backtested over history anywhere near 98%. That’s just flat wrong, and pretty much you can find mountains of studies that prove that. And your life insurance comment doesn’t even make sense. And no one anywhere talked about an 80% bond profile.

The wording of your statement and dismissive tone of what I wrote is pretty misleading to the folks on this thread. You are comparing apples and oranges. The use of life insurance as an investment strategy has a number of conditions that would need to be satisfied in order for it to be an attractive strategy for most folks in retirement. One condition, for many folks, is whether additional life insurance is even needed. And most people don't fall into the category of very high net worth, where life insurance might play an important role as part of a strategy. Whether you use life insurance or not as part of your investment strategy, nothing I wrote above is incorrect. And quite frankly, a pretty big portion of the financial world recognizes that pushing cash value life insurance as part of a retirement strategy in many/most cases is just a way for financial advisors to make a bunch of money, rather than it being the best investment strategy for retirement.

I did look at it. I also worked in venture capital for awhile and am invested in other VC funds. Investing in VC is really tricky. If you are in a few of the top VC funds you can make good returns, but it’s really a coin flip for many VC funds on whether you make money or not.

Ah, got it. I was wondering. edit - what’s with all the hoodies? PGA golfers wearing hoodies is weird.

So is the PGA Tour purposely trying to go out of business? They show a few hours in the afternoon on NBC, but the leaders haven't even teed off. Then, the program ends. You have to go to Peacock to watch it, which no one is going to do. Or, I guess the Golf channel will also have it live, but that doesn't start for an hour and it isn't clear to me that it's llive. Meanwhile, Liv tour is playing two channels down.

Isnt the Bama recruiting class still relatively intact? That is a strong class in spots (DB).

You are learning what every retiree learns, that a small change in assumptions is the difference between caviar and being destitute. I spent the first year of my semi-retirement running numbers through every calculator, spreadsheet and program there is anywhere and everywhere to try and better understand the sensitivity of different parameters. I particularly liked portfolio visualizer. It was worth $250 per year. Here are a few of the conclusions: 1. Inflation - I settled on 3% for a conservative number and 2% for optimistic. I figured that if it runs 4%, other asset returns will eventually return higher rates leaving the same real returns as inflation running 3% or less. That might not be a good assumption but it’s the only way to sleep at night. 2. Returns - think simple. First decide on your tolerance for risk, which will give you a stock bond asset allocation percentage. For example, 60/40 is the typical in retirement ratio. Then take some conservative and optimistic return rates for each and calculate the mixed value. Say conservatively 4% for bonds and 7% for stocks for a combined 5.8% return. Optimistically 4.5% for bonds and 9% for stocks, for a 7.2% rerun. Plug those numbers into the calculators and see if it works. 3. Simulations - In Monte Carlo simulations, which are critical, a financial planner will often say you need an 80% or better probability for success. I prefer 90% + . 4. Income - to reduce sequence of returns risk, look at how much cash the portfolio generates each year on average and compare it to your expenses. I prefer to have enough income to cover most of my expenses so that I don’t have to sell stocks in a down period when prices are depressed. However I am always total return cognizant. I don’t want a lot of high dividend yield investments with poor overall returns. Unfortunately right now I do have some investments that fall into that category. If and when rates drop I will jettison some of that.

Well you can’t ignore the first round draft rights that have been lost through this whole process. That would be an incorrect comparison. And while you may not think much of first round draft picks, anything in the top 15 can be game changing for a franchise.

This thread is incredible. I love it. I made the Carne Guisada tonight with a few tweaks. I basically merged this recipe with the Robb Walsh Tex Mex version. I added chili powder, red potatoes, Serrano peppers with seeds, diced tomatoes, garlic cloves and powder. It came out really good. I have the cooking skills of an eleven year old. Pics aren’t great but the meal came out really well.

Still haven’t seen a lot of the contenders 2023 Oppenheimer 2022 Top Gun Maverick 2021 Don’t Look Up 2020 Greyhound (terrible year) 2019 OUTH 2018 Vice 2017 Baby Driver 2016 La La Land 2015 The Big Short 2014 Whiplash 2013 American hustle

Yup, because our government will completely ignore this move by an oligopoly.

My college roommate quit ACC because he couldn’t find a parking spot. Because he lived at home, he drove away from the house every morning so his mom wouldn’t find out. He passed away several years ago. We finally told his mom last year when it came up during a conversation.

What I don’t get is how Glasscock gets a GM job elsewhere but the guy who replaces him as GM probably doesn’t have as strong overall skills. I get that Harris is important for a lot of recruiting, but the GM job is so much more. Why not just make Glasscock the GM?

4 Non Blondes What’s Up 1.7 billion YouTube views. 825 million Spotify plays.

bingo

I've been on Surly since the beginning and have noticed that when I create a new paragraph, it sometimes leaves too much space. I end up going back to the previous paragraph and deleting to get the spacing right. Also, sometimes lines that are supposed to be close together are far apart, like they are separate paragraphs. What dumbass thing am I doing wrong?

I never understand people who make strong proclamations that some certain music is trash or sucks. So, you don’t like it. Fine. Who the fuck are you to decide for the world what’s trash music and what’s not? There’s a lot of music I don’t like, but if other people like it, that’s the whole point, isn’t it? So fuck off you “pretend” music critics.

I am a Toby Keith fan. Even though he was an okie. Solid music. A lot of people didn’t like his “shallowness”, but I remember seeing him in concert once and he fully understood the “bit” his career was built around. He embraced it.

I would enjoy this thread more if posts included approximate prices for the wine displayed.

Well this is interesting. I believe that is an F-84E, which is the jet my dad flew in Korea. Who would have thought that I’d see that scrolling an NIL thread.