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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. Guessing the direction of the market is extremely difficult, and historically a loser's game. Time in the market always beats timing the market. With that said, we are seeing one of the first major events in a long time that has the potential to greatly shape the economic future of the US for the next decade or two. That shaping could be hugely negative, or positive, or somewhere in between. So, given the huge range of potential outcomes, and the fact that the stock market is at a historical high in valuation, moderating on the equity side is perhaps not a bad idea, if you are of an advanced age (5 years or less from retirement, or in retirement), and can afford to live with lower returns for awhile. Retirees often shoot for 60% equity and 40% fixed income in their portfolios. This provides a moderate return over time without taking on too much equity risk. Early in retirement, many people (myself included) established a bond "tent", shifting more to bonds to reduce the potentially bad scenario of major equity crashes early in retirement, raising the chance of running out of money during retirement. I moved to more bonds because bond rates aren't bad and equity is heavily over-valued right now. A typical bond tent would be 50% equity 50% fixed income, or 55/45. I'm actually down to 45% equity 55% fixed because I can afford to be that conservative and still fund retirement expenses, and because there is a decent chance Trump is destroying the economy and it may take a lot of time to recover. While Trump's objective of reducing government spending is good for America (get it from 6% of GDP to 3%), the way he and Musk are doing it (rapid, indescriminate, tariffs, disinformation, etc) will likely throw the country and the world into a recession, if he hasn't already. The Atlant GDP forecast report for 1Q 2025 already has gone negative. If I were under the age of 40, I'd just hold like the Texans at the Alamo, and would even accelerate investments if the market drops 25%+. Buckle up.
  2. I have a relative looking at it.
  3. Get a Decipher test done to determine the aggressiveness of the cancer. Is it 4+3 or 3+4? How many cores? Percent of cores with cancer? Research research research prostate cancer like crazy. There are many different treatment options, each with pros and cons.
  4. Can anyone give me a give as to what the future looks like for DataBricks? Good? bad? Why? Why not?
  5. @Im_smarter_then_you changed their name from another user name. I used to know who they were but forgot. Who is he/she?
  6. When you see players making dumb mistakes at critical times, it’s typically lack of preparation and in the moment coaching.
  7. I’ve tuned out on this team long long ago, but happened to run across this game and stopped to watch the last five minutes. Holy shit what an incredibly poorly coached team, with the team making dumbass mistakes over and over. Get him the fuck out of this program.
  8. Just to follow on to other’s comments, it’s important to understand what fees you are saving vs not saving when doing fsbo. Most people think they are saving 6%, or 5% if it’s a high price home market. But the reality is you often don’t save that much. The buyer often comes with an agent and that agent has to get compensated, either by the seller agent paying them, the seller paying them, or the seller lowering the price to pay them. If the buyer has no agent, then they look for an even better deal because there is no buyers agent fee to pay. They want to partially pocket some of the savings. Despite the recent change in the compensation rules, all of these scenarios still apply. So really, with fsbo you are saving 2.5-3% typically. But then you have the issues of setting the right price so it’s not off by 2.5-3% or more. And you have to deal with the complexity that some deals have. But, maybe it’s worth saving that 2.5-3% minus expenses (video, pics, marketing, etc) What I often suggest is to see if you can get someone to do it for 1.5-2% on the seller side. And make sure to have language in the contract that says they can’t pocket funds set aside for buyers agents if there isn’t one. Beware of Redfin and others charging 1%. Why? The agent who will work for that low a fee will make mistakes. I’ve seen it a 100 times. They aren’t the brightest tools in the shed. Why try to negotiate 1.5-2%? Because at that price you are getting someone of higher quality who, after splitting with their brokerage, makes enough money to make it worth their time. Hence you get a high quality person. I’ve done several deals for friends at significant discounts and was happy to do it.
  9. We have kids and grandkids here. Otherwise we’d already be living in either Europe or Costa Rica.
  10. Poor, starving children in Africa who read Surly are going to learn improper capitalization because of you.
  11. How are yall watching this?
  12. This is exactly how Ewers looked on the day.
  13. Calm down. You spend all day every day in the cloak room. You ain’t that busy. Life’s too short and immamac is good people.
  14. Quinn looked good.
  15. I just went to the PlayFly website, and I still don’t understand what they do.
  16. That was the point you stupid fuck.
  17. Get that field to grass asap.
  18. I don’t understand how you don’t understand why people are offended. An athlete makes more money in a few years than 90%+ of the population will ever see in their entire lifetime. It’s enough money to never have to worry about paying the bills ever again. But instead of doing that, the athlete blows all the money and then asks others to give them money. That isn’t a story that makes most people feel like giving. It’s just like Mary Lou Retton. And it’s pretty frustrating for most people who scrape by to make a living.
  19. I posted a view that was wildly inconsistent with my past views on the secondary and Akina. In the past, I constantly harped on the need to play more man to man because I believe it’s critical to stop high powered offenses. I do remember Saban saying that during the playoffs. I also lamented not having a DB coach who would properly teach the technique we got used to watching when Akina was in charge of the secondary. It was precise and fantastic. Third, I also made many references in the past at how age discrimination is wrong, not only morally and ethically, but also it’s often a bad business decision. So why did I react poorly to Akina being the hire? Several reasons. The defense last year was terrific, so I figured they had a scheme they were comfortable with and didn’t need a ‘man’ oriented coach. Maybe they do. Second, I simply age discriminated against Akina. Whoops. He seemed pretty old the last time I saw and heard him. I don’t know that we are getting Fangio. Maybe he’s fine. I also remember him not being able to deal with a scheme that mixed man and zone. Also, a 68 year old guy is going to turn off some recruits. I guess the rest of the staff can pick up the slack. So I don’t love the hire, but it probably won’t be a disaster either.
  20. Do you happen to remember the name of the surgeon at Mayo?
  21. Jeez, the guy is 68. This is a ridiculous hire. Texas is going to lose recruits over this.
  22. This is shocking, and not in a good way.
  23. Man this team gives up goals right after scoring, all the time.
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