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Dbeasy

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Dbeasy

  1. I’m thinking prices down a little, but transactions up significantly, for the same reasons as y’all have posted.
  2. This is a really awesome story. Thanks for sharing.
  3. A proper answer would be something like below you stupid fuck.
  4. I’d be interested to hear long time agents and mortgage people to comment on the following scenario. Assume the economy goes into a recession in the next six months, with significant job losses. Not as bad as 2002 but close. Also assume Fed rates drop from 4.3 percent to 3 percent in six months, leading to significantly lower mortgage rates. What happens to home prices starting at the beginning of the job losses for the next 24 months? Up? Down? A lot? A little?
  5. What does he bring of value? That’s the question.
  6. I really don’t get it. He spews a bunch of garbage but then can’t answer simple direct questions. What a rube.
  7. Go ahead and give us the cliff notes of how Putin was justified in invading a sovereign territory. I’m willing to listen.
  8. In junior high, I went to band camp in Lubbock at Texas Tech. They made a huge deal about not fraternizing with the opposite sex. Well, I got caught one night making out with a girl outside between buildings. The punishment? I was called up on stage in front of 5,000 fellow campers, and forced to make out with the girl. It was a brutal embarrassment. Interesting side note though. The girl ended up six years later becoming Miss Lubbock in the State of Texas beauty pageant. So I’ve got that going for me.
  9. I don’t even understand what point you are trying to make in this word salad mess. Russia invaded Ukraine and tried to take the whole country by force. What exactly should the world have done in that scenario?
  10. Because BIL holds only max 3 month treasuries, any short term fall off in value due to higher interest rates would recover in a few weeks or months. So there is very little interest rate risk, and no credit risk because it’s US gov treasuries. Unless Trump decided to default on US debt. That would be Armageddon.
  11. Given your age I would not hold any individual stocks. Just my opinion. Of course, I still own 2 individual stocks. As far as “safe” investments, I would look at a U.S. Treasury ETF with short duration, at or under 2 years. BIL, etc. Stock prices are overvalued, corporate bond spreads wrt treasuries are too narrow, CD’s, HYSA yield below treasuries slightly but don’t really give you much if any more protection than treasuries. edit: you can’t get 5% without taking more risk. With short term treasuries you get 4.3%
  12. FYI I had a complication yesterday from a Dr visit and can’t go to Spurs game in Austin tonight. Listing on Ticketmaster is here. It’s below other ticket prices. https://my.ticketmaster.com/ds/vQGAAnkG1e/event/3A006101A74384D7
  13. Dammit. I have tickets to the Friday game and the whole point was to see Wemby.
  14. A coach with Chad! We got two coaches!
  15. If Corby on the Ticket last week wasn’t blowing smoke, Jalen Rose, of Fab Five fame, was the first Jalen…ever. By the year 2000, the name Jalen went from 0 to the top 100 baby names….by 2025 Jalen is the most popular NBA name…it’s also the most popular NBA name in history…it’s also the most popular NFL name…it’s also the most popular NCAA basketball name…it’s also the most popular NCAA football name.
  16. Read the Twitter responses to Pence’s tweet. There were an avalanche of responses admonishing him for not knowing the history where the Ukraine provoked Russia repeatedly by breaking a treaty and moving towards nato membership, and doing other things to provoke them. There were even posts about Biden inviting Russia to invade.
  17. A more consistent power running game is the missing piece to a title. If this dude can help them get there, it would be an intriguing hire.
  18. When I first started reading your posts many years ago I thought you were nuts. And yes, we’ve seen things happen I never would have believed. I’m not clear where this ends. How far does this go?
  19. Every day there is another red flag that pops up in the press about some action taken by Trump that is either alarming or meant to take away attention from elsewhere. We've talked in this thread and elsewhere about Project 2025, the fact he's doing what he said he would, facism, etc. I wonder whether a specific thread should be created to look much more at the really big picture of what is happening with our current government. This thread gets bogged down in daily shock theater, and I worry that there is a much broader and more concerning plan being implemented than some or most people realize. It may not make sense to separate out the conversation, but here is where my thoughts are headed. It had been years since I studied Hitler's rise to power. I went back and looked at via some readings and documentaries, not because I believe this administration is truly trying to implement a dictatorship or facism in the classical sense. We could all debate that. I wanted to understand how Hitler got into power with such tight control for over ten years, so that I could view this current extraordinary government situation through the eyes of a historical reference. What's really concerning is how the Republican party and Trump have implemented over many years what I would term a "modern day version" of violence and actions to gain greater control over our country and government. We are all familiar with what they've done, but when you look at it in it's totality (Something About Mary reference), it makes you really wonder where this is headed. I feel like there is a massive surprise coming that is far bigger than Project 2025. A few of the parallels between Trump and Hitler's rise to power: 1. Propaganda, misinformation - both have used it extensively to dumb down the public. Some forget that the people voted Hitler into office. Trump's modern equivalent is Fox News and other conservative media, Elon taking over Twitter, his deal with Facebook, etc. 2. Violence and Convenient Partnerships - Hitler used the SA, SS, and SD organizations, which over time became more violent, to exert control and intimidate. He also partnered closely with the Conservative party to gain control. Trump uses MAGA and his technique of deny, deny, deny, double down, triple down, quaduple down, combined with misinformation and propaganda to quiet opposition. He also partners with the Conservatives, Proud Boys and other fringe organizations, just as Hitler did. 3. Consolidation of Power - Once in power, Hitler immediately took actions to consolidate power in the government, eliminating freedom of the press, and other actions. The banning of AP, one of the few true news organizations, from the White House is one tiny example of Trump trying to consolidate power. Trump's executive orders and public communications also are geared toward consolidation of power. We see something new every day. 4. Elimination of Rivals - This is where the conversation really gets interesting and why I think a standalone thread might have some value. In the Night of the Long Knives, Hitler eliminated and assassinated any and all opposition. The Army could have stopped Hitler, but he made them complicit in cutting down SA and his rivals. He then eliminated the conservatives. The only person left standing was Hitler, and he forced the military to vow allegiance to him and not the Constituion. Similarly, yesterday we saw Trump start making references to the President making all decisions for the Executive branch. And he put highly loyal morons in charge of critical government functions. Elon Musk and his billions are the modern day equivalent of the violent muscle. Trump doesn't have to assasinate anyone. He just uses Elon's muscle to silence all opposition, with politicians getting primaried. Note that once Hitler got what he needed from the SA and its leader Rohm, his close friend, he assasinated him, so that Rohm could not seize power from him. 5. Radical Agenda - The SA wanted a revolution. Hitler wanted to exterminate races and invade countries. He used the SS, the reformed SA after the assassinations, and the military as his protection. Trump wants to get people out of the country and take over Greenland, Canada, Gaza, and the Panama canal. He also wants to grift as mch money as possible. What else is he really aiming for? So the grand master questions in all this are the following: 1. What is the end game for Trump in all this? Is he a useful idiot and someone else has a much more sinister and hidden agenda? 2. Does Trump eliminate Elon, or vice versa? Because it will happen. 3. Are the radical right billionaires trying to implement something even more sinister than Project 2025? 4. What really are we headed for? I'm starting to believe there is something much bigger at play than we've even seen to date. I know many people will say "duh" and shout about facism and dictatorship. I've considered that alarmist talk premature. However, is there some sort of plan to eliminate freedoms and opportunity for the people in a much more opaque way so that by the time people wake up it's too far along to stop? Will the third term conversation start to become real? Will a Supreme Court rubber stamp all of these illegal actions? The same happened with Hitler. The legal community justified his murdering of his opposition on the basis of it being a national emergency. Their Congress then passed laws to make it all legal, a Congress that had been intimidated into compliance. Sound familiar?
  20. Meh. I’ll reserve judgement until @Enemy07 consults his college astronomy class book.
  21. I don’t follow this thread because he’s too infuriating. However I noticed Bannon is fighting with him. That’s a nice turn of events. Also, someone mentioned that Musk’s parents joined the Nazi party. That’s fake, right? Right?
  22. Getting Rosenrosen would be fantastic.
  23. Headed to Seattle in the middle of March to visit my son, who moved there a few months ago. I've been to Seattle many times but have done very little touristy stuff. We are staying at the Mayflower Park hotel and won't have a car. I read through the thread to get a feel for restaurants and activities. Appreciate people posting their recommendations and experiences. We will probably be visiting the area often and will do the national parks, Victoria, San Juan islands, etc on future trips. This one is pretty much focused on just Seattle. We are there for about 3-4 days.
  24. When you think about performance vs expectations, it really leans toward QB or RB. Given that, Simms and Gray are the two biggest disappointments.
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