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UTGrad98

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2450 Surly 10%

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  1. 10% a week for the next 10 weeks is probably the smartest. But for me, Im gonna try and time this sucker. Why live life if you dont try and time the market.
  2. Threads with no purpose.
  3. Let me be the voice of reason here. What if it is God and Jesus?
  4. If you never thought in a million years she would fall for something like this, there is a chance she is beginning to have dementia. Falling for things like this is a warning sign. And the bitcoin is gone. The money is lost.
  5. those trees look like they come alive at night
  6. I didn't even know season 3 was released yesterday. Books 4 and 6 were my favorites so I'm excited to see this season. I'm fine with most of the changes so far and enjoyed season 2 especially. I just want them to focus on rand and the main characters more and less on Moiraine and other side characters
  7. Let's say there is something to this. Since the institutions bought the technical bottom, then they would not want any tariff talk this weekend and at least until Wednesday afternoon. You could go a step further and say when Powell holds rates steady it gives perfect cover for trump to say Powell made a huge mistake by not cutting and that he doomed our economy with his stupidity. Then tariff escalation resumes and stocks start to fall again down to bear market levels. Seems pretty quick to do as a rebound like this typically lasts longer than 3 or 4 trading sessions but let's see what next week brings. And that's not even talking about the real possibility there is an actual recession which has already started even without all the tariff talks to amplify it over the past month.
  8. Another thing Im keeping track of is the 5 day moving average. We pushed up against it the past few days and then sold off immediately and couldnt hold it (It was at around 562-564 earlier in the week). Today seems much more manageable in terms of breaking through. Again this is the information Im filing away for the next 10% correction in say 2 or 3 years from now. I wont bet this type of money unless the benefits outweigh the risk. For me, its the 10% and 20% initial drops where I feel the benefit outweighs the risk. Im conservative by nature and wont mess with the good thing I have going with my semi-retirement etc etc. The rest of my money is having a good day today. My money market account I was a day late in holding. I bought Tues and held until Thursday mid morning. They really make the little guy sweat it out. Buying at the 10% mark and then having it go negative before it explodes upward really messes with your psyche.
  9. I think the selling is flushed out for now but what do I know. Ive only been really following market trends for 4 or 5 years now ( and really feeling their impact). Lets see if the gains hold into the close today like I hoped they would every day this week while I held, but didnt. I always figured we'd bounced back to the 200 DMA and then from there, the market would make a decision on where to go. Lets see if it goes to 572 ish over the next few days. Maybe even a bit higher before another major move in either direction. Again, this is only if the institutional money is all thinking and planning the same thing based off other corrections. Data be damned. My guess is we get back to around 572 area on Tues Wed next week and then make a move based on whatever the fed does Wednesday.
  10. I have seen this type of rally before. Back in 2022. Just a horrible consumer sentiment number today and the markets shrugged it off. Get rid of all the sellers, even the ones who sell right after a big resistance floor was overtaken, ie the 10% correction. Who is left after that but the buyers? Had great inflation numbers Wednesday and Thursday but it didn't matter. Had a horrible report today and it didn't matter. The plan was in place by the big institutions? Am I doing that right? Very interesting. Well, keep learning I guess.
  11. Well lets go to the next set of trading bounces. 15% drop is SPY 521. 20% drop is SPY 490. Here are the fibonacci retracements from the 350 SPY low in OCt 2022. Not sure if that low is what the pros use but seems as good as any. 52 week low = 52 Week Range 493.86 - 613.23 The 490-493 range "should" have a big bounce if/when we get that far.
  12. We are getting dangerously close to falling off a cliff. SPY 551 needs to hold. It's crazy with the good news the market has received the past 2 days coupled with the typical 10% correction technical bounce. Can't fight our own government. I got out with a smaller gain than I had anticipated. I'm sure the bounce will be today. Oh well. There will be other opportunities.
  13. 95% of the time, posts that try to come off like this fail and you kind of nod your head as you read it and say, yea haha, I know you were trying to be funny but its not even close. thanks for trying. This was not one of those posts.
  14. Can we not sell into the close during the last hour of trading like we have the past 3 weeks. That would be a nice change
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