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UTGrad98

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Everything posted by UTGrad98

  1. I wonder how they would call the play in the huddle.
  2. In the past 10 years ( I didnt go past that) we have had only 1 day in April that will be as hot as today (95-96) and that was back in April 2020. No other days were hotter than 92. Consequently, in the past 10 years only April 2020 had more than 1 day in the 90s in DFW. And that year was 2 days total for the month. I am not gruntled for this upcoming year. The only good news I have seen is that La Nina is over now officially.
  3. Figurative asshole or literal asshole because your post leaves some ambiguity
  4. Just saw yesterday April 9th this thread had more posts in 24 hours (177) than any other day in this thread's history, even beating out March 16th 2020 which was the previous high for posts.
  5. Let me ask a question. If I buy 30 year treasuries, do I get them at the rate I buy them at for 30 years no matter what they are at or do I buy them and if the rate fluctuates my interest payments also fluctuate.
  6. Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?
  7. I was outside doing yard work for the past 2 hours jokingly thinking to myself, it would be funny if circuit breakers hit today. Id definitely put something in as we got close to 7%. But I needed to reseed part of my lawn so I missed it....
  8. Eh just a 3% drop so far. Wake me up when we get closer to 6.
  9. I have to give him some credit. He did tell us to buy 30 minutes or so before he announced the 90 day reprieve.
  10. I remember the government begging us to buy in 2008 too.
  11. I just realized. China is the Michael Scott Paper Company.
  12. I think we retest the lows tomorrow.
  13. The Vix above 40 for 3 days in a row is fucking ridiculous
  14. Looking more like how the 10% drop played out. If we bounce at 480 today or tomorrow it will try (again) for the 5 day average which will be decidedly lower after another 500 ish close. Then if we dont retake the 5 day tomorrow, Thursday may be the 1987 type day where we capitulate, albeit with much more magnitude than what happened at 10%. If it repeats like that, then buying into the close on Thursday will be the play. Sadly I work that day so I wont be as keen on movement. These swings are fucking crazy. The question is are they following a pattern. There arent that many 20% drops in the past 50 years. Do they all follow the same playbook? We would need the 5 day to be in a more manageable range for the market to overtake it. Today it was just too high to sustain. Thursday and Friday should be much more attainable. But I work at a Wendy's so what do I know.
  15. So I was watching the 5 day moving average which is around spy 524 and we bounced off like we did when we bounced there a couple times at the 10% drop. Interested if we climb there again to 524 today or if we keep moving back down. If we retake the 5 day that is a good sign we move up. If we don't we may retest.
  16. China just said it will fight to the end on trumps latest tariff threat. Premarket up an additional 0.5% after hearing the news. As we were heading down to the 20% drop this news would have sent the market reeling. Now that we are rebounding, the market will "shake off" the news or "take it in stride". Don't fight the money and the algorithms. We are supposed to bounce at 20% because we always have. Bad news and fundamentals be damned. Only good news moves the market for a while now.
  17. Notice how trumps 50% China tariff announcement today didn't move the markets much. It wasn't time for them to go down anymore.
  18. Is the last hour of trading going to look like the first hour? Things are starting to get interesting again.
  19. This sell off is following the same pattern as other sell offs and yes the BIG technicals like the 10% and 20% drops tend to have bounces that last at least a week or 2 if not longer. I remember COVID analysts were saying the selling in Feb-Mar 2020 was nothing like how their models had predicted and everyone was getting run over left and right and technicals didnt matter. Lets see what happens here. Trump can put out tweets that move markets 5% in either direction. It wont be a straight line but I think we can bounce around here and test the 480 low a couple more times maybe even going lower a couple % later in the week. Trumps 50% escalating tariffs to China will be a market mover if it goes into effect Wednesday and the response from Europe will be a market mover too. I think we know some of how the market will move if we sell into the close today or if we hold around the 500 SPY level. If we sell into the close I think there is a chance we follow the 10% bounce from a few weeks ago where we test it 2 or 3 times then fall below 480 for capitulation and then slowly climb back into the summer. The thing is the VIX is so fucking high right now, today just may be the day we bottom for now and we climb back up to the 5 day and possibly the 200 day moving average. Which puts us back in the 570s say by June.
  20. I'm still in awe of the 30 seconds after the rumor came out that we went from 490 to 522. The amount of money to be able to do that in 30 seconds is humbling and scary.
  21. What a fucking day and its only been 1 hour since the market opened.
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