Jump to content

UTGrad98

Full Members
  • Posts

    1429
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by UTGrad98

  1. ] 4.3% in a vanguard mm account seems pretty good right now. The question is, will you be able to get back in when rates go down to 0.5%, all hell is breaking loose and every article you read says it's going to keep going lower. Because that shit turns on a dime and doesn't come back once it starts going back up. There are no do overs. No retests of that low.
  2. https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Q1 GDP est down to -2.8 from -1.8 previous estimate. I still don't understand this gold adjustment bs (-0.5). But admittedly I havent tried to. I assume it's still not good.
  3. Of course. Notice how he got quiet after we hit and moved up from the 10% correction a couple weeks ago. Now that we hit where we were supposed to which was just above the 200 day moving average, the rhetoric started back up. I will be shocked if we don't see at least a 20% drop from our January highs. Shocked. Next week is going to be absolutely nuts one way or another. My guess is we hit SPY 520 in the next 2 weeks. Then another bounce while the rhetoric dies off. Then back down to 20% bear market. And that's not even counting if we are already in a recession. If the actual numbers start to look bad, hold on to your butts.
  4. Well shit, what's 613 x 0.9 again... I may have to do a quick day trade if it gets that low today. I think it wont hold at all though. We most likely are going down to the 520s with this next leg down.
  5. Books 4, 5 and 6 are really the strength of the story. Hopefully it will be picked up for season 4 and 5 where they can finish through book 6. Then condense books 7,8,9 into 1 season. Then condense the remaining books into the final season. Jordan was on the money grab after book 6 anyway. Besides the ending of book 9 which was awesome, I struggle to remember much of anything from book 7 on.
  6. This feels like the start of the next leg down if the tariffs start getting signed today. Of course with trump he can manipulate however he wants so it's basically a coin flip from one day to the next. Let's see if we close below the 5 day moving average.
  7. 10% a week for the next 10 weeks is probably the smartest. But for me, Im gonna try and time this sucker. Why live life if you dont try and time the market.
  8. Threads with no purpose.
  9. Let me be the voice of reason here. What if it is God and Jesus?
  10. If you never thought in a million years she would fall for something like this, there is a chance she is beginning to have dementia. Falling for things like this is a warning sign. And the bitcoin is gone. The money is lost.
  11. those trees look like they come alive at night
  12. I didn't even know season 3 was released yesterday. Books 4 and 6 were my favorites so I'm excited to see this season. I'm fine with most of the changes so far and enjoyed season 2 especially. I just want them to focus on rand and the main characters more and less on Moiraine and other side characters
  13. Let's say there is something to this. Since the institutions bought the technical bottom, then they would not want any tariff talk this weekend and at least until Wednesday afternoon. You could go a step further and say when Powell holds rates steady it gives perfect cover for trump to say Powell made a huge mistake by not cutting and that he doomed our economy with his stupidity. Then tariff escalation resumes and stocks start to fall again down to bear market levels. Seems pretty quick to do as a rebound like this typically lasts longer than 3 or 4 trading sessions but let's see what next week brings. And that's not even talking about the real possibility there is an actual recession which has already started even without all the tariff talks to amplify it over the past month.
  14. Another thing Im keeping track of is the 5 day moving average. We pushed up against it the past few days and then sold off immediately and couldnt hold it (It was at around 562-564 earlier in the week). Today seems much more manageable in terms of breaking through. Again this is the information Im filing away for the next 10% correction in say 2 or 3 years from now. I wont bet this type of money unless the benefits outweigh the risk. For me, its the 10% and 20% initial drops where I feel the benefit outweighs the risk. Im conservative by nature and wont mess with the good thing I have going with my semi-retirement etc etc. The rest of my money is having a good day today. My money market account I was a day late in holding. I bought Tues and held until Thursday mid morning. They really make the little guy sweat it out. Buying at the 10% mark and then having it go negative before it explodes upward really messes with your psyche.
  15. I think the selling is flushed out for now but what do I know. Ive only been really following market trends for 4 or 5 years now ( and really feeling their impact). Lets see if the gains hold into the close today like I hoped they would every day this week while I held, but didnt. I always figured we'd bounced back to the 200 DMA and then from there, the market would make a decision on where to go. Lets see if it goes to 572 ish over the next few days. Maybe even a bit higher before another major move in either direction. Again, this is only if the institutional money is all thinking and planning the same thing based off other corrections. Data be damned. My guess is we get back to around 572 area on Tues Wed next week and then make a move based on whatever the fed does Wednesday.
  16. I have seen this type of rally before. Back in 2022. Just a horrible consumer sentiment number today and the markets shrugged it off. Get rid of all the sellers, even the ones who sell right after a big resistance floor was overtaken, ie the 10% correction. Who is left after that but the buyers? Had great inflation numbers Wednesday and Thursday but it didn't matter. Had a horrible report today and it didn't matter. The plan was in place by the big institutions? Am I doing that right? Very interesting. Well, keep learning I guess.
  17. Well lets go to the next set of trading bounces. 15% drop is SPY 521. 20% drop is SPY 490. Here are the fibonacci retracements from the 350 SPY low in OCt 2022. Not sure if that low is what the pros use but seems as good as any. 52 week low = 52 Week Range 493.86 - 613.23 The 490-493 range "should" have a big bounce if/when we get that far.
  18. We are getting dangerously close to falling off a cliff. SPY 551 needs to hold. It's crazy with the good news the market has received the past 2 days coupled with the typical 10% correction technical bounce. Can't fight our own government. I got out with a smaller gain than I had anticipated. I'm sure the bounce will be today. Oh well. There will be other opportunities.
  19. 95% of the time, posts that try to come off like this fail and you kind of nod your head as you read it and say, yea haha, I know you were trying to be funny but its not even close. thanks for trying. This was not one of those posts.
  20. Can we not sell into the close during the last hour of trading like we have the past 3 weeks. That would be a nice change
  21. Never in a million years would I have thought the market would be down 1 hour after the opening bell after todays CPI report, but here we are. I decided to hold my position overnight and Im just flipping off the market right now. I wont lose any money but I never thought it would be negative 1 hour into trading. I know nothing.....
  22. Just got my renewal. Up another 33%.
  23. I can do it. This time will be different.
  24. I've got a pretty big chunk of my money ready to go in the SPY552 -553 range. I will sell within a day or 2 of the order hitting, most likely, as long as the order hits on the initial 10% correction bounce. After that who knows what is going to happen. If I can make 2-3% on the trade I'll be a happy man.
×
×
  • Create New...