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UTGrad98

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Everything posted by UTGrad98

  1. Wtf on the WV 4th down and the review. Crazy they gave it to them.
  2. Oh just wait until our first mistake today. The over reaction will be felt around the world.
  3. Clemson qb and especially wr are sucking something fierce. Those plays are there. And some crushing penalties as well.
  4. This is one of my favorite days of the year. 13 hours of nothing but college football. What a great slate of games
  5. The randomness and timing of this thread starting is eerie as fuck. I mean seriously, how is this even possible.
  6. 103/114 in dallas right now.
  7. That was always one of the questions I had in terms of how COLA is applied. Let's assume COLA is 2% a year. Now let's assume you take your ss at 62. Is the COLA percent applied fully to the amount or does it go into that PIA formula? I'm at work so I can't post how they calculate it right now but you basically get 90% of the first $900 of your monthly total gross over your lifetime earnings then only 32% of the next $2000 monthly gross total earnings. Doesn't it make a difference WHERE the 2% COLA is applied. Is it before or after ? That would also make a huge difference as you want want to take your ss asap if the cola is applied fully after that pia calculation.
  8. I would be grateful if you could post that spreadsheet. Excel is not a strong suit of mine and I'd be afraid I'd fuck up the numbers somehow trying to input the variables and formulas. I assume cola doesn't make a difference here? It's applied the same whether or not you take the money.
  9. This is what I'm leaning towards now, taking my benefits at 62. The checks will go right into my vanguard account where I'll put into VOO or something similar. Like imma said this strategy works if you aren't going to work after turning 62 and if you don't need the money to live on. It's a small hedge against dying early as well. Plus as you age, and especially after hitting 80 you don't spend nearly as much on travel, going out etc. Seems like quite a few pros to taking it as early as possible if your situation warrants that.
  10. Yes but it takes about 19 years, if you took benefits at 62, before you recoup the loss of missing out a full year (or 8 ) of reduced benefits. And that's without investing it.
  11. Fuck this shit. 107 right now in dfw. AC hasn't stopped all day and can't keep the house temp below 77 no matter what we set it on. This better be it. The models are telling me this is it. This is the last day of shitty ass 105+ temps for the year....probably.
  12. I wonder if she'll say the D word
  13. For as long as I can remember, I assumed the "smart" people always waited to take their social security at 67 or 70. Basically to wait as long as you can before starting to take it. That only suckers and the poors took social security at age 62. So many articles I have read over the years say as much. But now Im starting to question that. So first let's look at the break even age, not factoring in reinvesting the money. Generally, the break even age is in between age 80 and 81. Here is an excerpt from an article showing that: https://money.usnews.com/money/retirement/social-security/articles/how-to-calculate-your-social-security-break-even-age Calculating Your Social Security Break-Even Age You can find your break-even age by doing some calculations based on your age and benefit. If you wait to claim Social Security benefits until after your full retirement age, your full retirement age benefit would increase by approximately 8% per year for each year that you delay claiming (up to age 70). If you decide to claim early, you can expect to receive less than the full benefit amount. By claiming at age 62, for instance, the reduction will be about 30%. Perhaps your full retirement age is 67, at which time you qualify for a benefit of $2,000 a month. You decide to wait until age 68 to apply for benefits. This will increase your benefit by approximately 8%, which comes to $160 more ($2,000 x 0.08) each month, or $1,920 more each year ($160 x 12). By starting at age 67, you’ll have an annual benefit of $24,000 every year (not counting cost of living adjustments). If you start at age 68, you’ll have an annual benefit of about $25,920. “In general, the break-even point using different claiming ages is approximately age 80 or 81,” said Drew Parker, founder of The Complete Retirement Planner in the Seattle area, in an email. If you claim at age 67 with a benefit of $24,000 a year, you’ll have $336,000 by age 80 (after 14 years). If you claim at age 68 for $25,920, you’ll receive $336,000 by age 80 and 10 months (12.97 years). Note that these calculations are all estimated, as “the Social Security Administration calculates a reduced or increased benefit using your claiming age and the number of months before or after your full retirement age to determine a specific benefit,” Parker said. Say your full retirement age is 67, and you decide to take benefits at age 62. Your monthly benefit at full retirement age is $2,000, and it will be reduced by approximately 30%. You will receive $600 less each month (2,000 x 0.30), which means each check will be $1,400 ($2,000 - $600). You’ll receive $16,800 a year. By the time you reach age 81, you’ll receive $336,000 (20 years). These estimated calculations are available at The Complete Retirement Planner using its free Social Security calculator, or with more detailed information using the planning tool. Other factors I see here are family history, the persons current health, and the average life expectancy. Here is the most recent data on life expectancy in the US once you reach age 65. https://www.statista.com/statistics/266657/us-life-expectancy-for-men-aat-the-age-of-65-years-since-1960/ The life expectancy for men aged 65 years in the U.S. has gradually increased since the 1960s. Now men in the United States aged 65 can expect to live 17 more years on average. Women aged 65 years can expect to live around 19.7 more years on average. So the big take away here is how healthy are you and what does your family longevity history look like. Just going by the data, taking social security at 62 vs 67 vs 70 breaks even right around the life expectancy of a man once he reaches age 65 ( 82 years old). Now though let's say you actually wont need your social security and can just reinvest it. Now that break even number goes even higher. Here is an example of someone taking their social security at 66 vs 70 but reinvesting it at a 5% return. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/should-you-start-social-security-early-and-invest-your-benefit/ For my situation, there is a good chance my wife and I wont "need" all of our social security and so reinvesting it is a possibility for us. Im curious what others are doing as Im not as sure as I was when to start taking my social security.
  14. I'm going to neg you and I'm going to neg you as hard as I can. You have 1 day.
  15. I understand june and July were great so let's get that out of the way. What have you done for me lately. The 7 and 10 day keep getting worse and worse and now it's getting into my, fuck this bullshit, temp range. This morning is a sauna and I'm seeing mid 100s later this week with no relief in the 10 day to make me feel better. Fuck August.
  16. His campaign should say he had a cold.
  17. Someone please explain. What Im not understanding is how the VIX could get to 65 today and close at 38, something it hasnt done since 2020 pandemic and before that times like the dot com bust and great recession. It doesnt make any sense. Another thing that doesnt make much sense is how Japan's stock market can lose 17% in 2 days including 12% in 1 day. Is it all because of this "carry trade" and the BOJ raising rates 25 basis points? Or the fact that the Fed chose NOT to lower interest rates by a quarter point 4 days ago? Those take 9-12 months to take effect anyway. These dont seem like fear inducing catalysts to me. What am I missing here? The global markets were frothy and we are getting rid of some of that froth. Seems pretty standard. Why so much fear? Ill hang up and listen.
  18. For today. It looks like we've bottomed for today
  19. Yea 508 was the -10% from all.time high resistance level and I think it hit that in premarket trading. Damn premarket, always gets the cool stuff.
  20. Pretty good bounce off of spy 510 so far.
  21. I think we bounce off the 200 day moving average. Stocks don't just fall straight down. And Japan has been following our moves from the day before the last 2 sessions.
  22. 200 day moving average for SPY is right at 500. Did not think we would get here so fast. If it goes below 500 and closes below 500 in the next few days, look out below. 450 and 440 are in play
  23. Not a great Monday opening overseas. And that after their 5% selloff Friday
  24. Same. I looked in 2022 at my 401k and saw my bond fund was down 10%. Never been so furious in my life in terms of managing my money. You can throw a rock and you will see 60% stock 40% bond portfolio advice so I never put in the work to understand that a bond fund trades just like a stock does and can absolutely lose principal. Huge lesson. Never again. Bond funds can suck my dick.
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