The skilesare plan: Divisional Pod Structure for determining a Champion in a 16 team football conference. - Reviving this from the Pac 16 discussion years ago and find/replacing.
Too Long, Didn't Read:
1. Allow teams to play the schools in their 4 school region every year.
2. Allow teams to visit the other three regions once a year and have a team from the other 3 regions visit them once a year.
3. Codify the unstated law that 'the season is the playoff'.
4a. Reduce the chance of a championship rematch to below 20%.
4b. Eliminate the possibility of a rematch in a fair way.
4c. Create a fun, exciting new paradigm for conference post season that eliminates the possibility of a rematch in a fair and lucrative way.
I'm a nerd. A big nerd. I really like to think about the best way to crown champions in sports. So when I say that this Pac 16 thing not happening hurts my soul. It was like an entire imaginative side of my self was enticed by Lucy and then the ball was pulled away at the last second. And then beat with a club.
I'm putting this out anyway in the hopes that one day the 16 team super conference will become a reality(Hello 2021) and the head of the competition committee will stumble upon this doing a google search. Also to see if anyone is as crazy as me.
When doing something like this the media message is very important. The 16 team WAC failed at this and their Quadrant system failed miserably and was confusing to fans. The media message is this:
Win your division. Win your pod. Play for the championship.
Here is how it works. When each team is put in a pod and a divsion:
The Pods:
There are 4 regional pods. This allows for the maintaining of long standing rivalries.
West:
Texas
Arkansas
OU
A&M
Gulf:
LSU
Missouri
Ole Miss
Miss St.
Central:
Alabama
Auburn
Tenn
Vanderbilt
East:
South Carolina
Kentucky
Florida
Georgia
The Divisions:
The two divisions will be rebalanced every two years to allow for both even competition and road trip diversity. Each pod sends two teams to each division:
Cotton Division:
Texas
A&M
Missouri
Miss St.
Alabama
Vanderbilt
Kentucky
Florida
Sugar Division:
OU
Arkansas
LSU
Ole Miss
Tenn
Auburn
South Carolina
Georgia
A team plays every team in its pod and every team in its division. Texas' schedule would look like this:
Arkansas
@OU
A&M
Missouri
@Miss St.
Alabama
@Vanderbilt
Kentucky
@Florida
In this structure Texas gets a road trip to each region every year. This great for fans as well as for recruiting exposure.
The following three scenarios can be used for determining a champion in the league:
A. Traditional Divisional Champions:
After running this model 50,000 times through my computer, a rematch only occurs 19.94% of the time. This is a 20% improvement over a straight-up 8 team division, play everyone in your division + 2 cross divisional games. This is a pretty big deal as rematches are against the very core of college footballness.
B. Alt-Championship:
In this model, the way to guarantee you get a spot in the championship game is to 'Win your Division and win your Pod.' 80% of the time your championship will not need to employ the alt championship rule. In an alt-championship scenario, the traditional championship game would be a rematch. The only way this can happen is if the team that won the other division was in the same pod as you.
Say that Texas and OU both finished 8-1 in their division and there were no other 8-1 teams in the divisions. Texas and OU compete in the East Pod. Who won? Was it a 3 way tie? If so, only two teams are represented here so use the head to head tie breaker. Say Texas won their pod. They stay in the championship game and OU is booted out for the next highest place finisher in the the Sugar Division that has not played Texas. 85% of the time this will be the 2nd place team. This equates to about 3% of the seasons that a 3rd place finisher would end up in the title game.
C. A new Paradigm. The Championship weekend.
In this system you do not have one championship game. You have 2. The season can end in one of 5 ways. 3 of them are crown a conference champion very cleanly and make up occur in 97.6% of model seasons simulated
Type 1: 61.7%
The 2 divisional winners have not played each other and the 2 second-place winners have not played each other. In this scenario, you play a Championship game and 3rd/4th place game.
Type 2: 15.6%
The 2 divisional winners have played already but neither has played the 2nd place team from the other league. The 2 games consist of the Cotton Champ vs. Sugar 2nd and Sugar Champ vs. Cotton 2nd. The team with the best record against the league after these games is the champion. The extra 2 games give you the head-to-head ammo you need to break any ties.
Take the following example:
Cotton
---------
1. Missouri (6-3) Division Record.
2. Florida (6-3) Division Record. Defeated Miss St.
3. Miss St. (6-3) Division Record. Lost To Florida
4. Kentucky (5-4) Overall Record. Defeated Alabama
5. Alabama (5-4) Overall Record. Lost To Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt (4-5) Division Record. Defeated Texas
7. Texas (4-5) Division Record. Lost To Vanderbilt
8. A&M (4-5) Division Record.
Sugar
---------
1. LSU (6-3) Record.
2. South Carolina (5-4) Overall Record. Defeated Ole Miss
3. Ole Miss (5-4) Overall Record. Lost To South Carolina
4. Auburn (4-5) Record.
5. Florida State (3-6) Division Record. Defeated Tenn
6. Tenn (3-6) Division Record. Lost To Florida State
7. Oklahoma (3-6) Division Record. Defeated Arkansas
8. Arkansas (3-6) Division Record. Lost To Oklahoma
Gulf
---------
1. LSU (2-1) Alone in the Division.
1. Missouri (2-1) Defeated Miss St.
2. Miss St. (2-1) Lost To Missouri
3. Ole Miss (0-3) Record.
Missouri would play South Carolina. and Florida would Play LSU. If both LSU teams won, leaving two teams at 7-3, LSU would get the trophy because they beat Missouri during their pod play.
In this system, you can never take a week off because you never know when that game may end up being a de facto 'Championship' game.
Type 3: 20.36%
The top two teams haven't played so they play a championship game. The second two teams have played so we have to break the tie between them and then go get a second team that the tie-winning team hasn't played.
Type 4: 2.02%
In this scenario, the top two teams have played and one of the divisional champs has played the 2nd place team in the other division. We have to go down a rank and get a different team. You then decide the champ like in Type 2.
Type 5: 0.2%
In this scenario, All of the 1st and 2nd place teams come from the same pod. For example, Texas, OU finish 1st in their divisions, and A&M and Arkansas finish 2nd. Here we just go down to the 3rd place teams to find a match for the Divisional champions.
I love the championship weekend. I think it is lucrative for TV and really fun for fans. It also removes the annoyance of rematches that have ruined a number of college football seasons. Plus, more quality football.
This could be so beautiful. Three great road trips a year. Three exotic home games a year. Still getting together with our old friend. Actually using on-the-field performance to determine a champion.