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DanRydell

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Everything posted by DanRydell

  1. It was mostly enjoyable for the music and Malek did a good job but as a film, it was pretty bad.
  2. I don’t get it either. It’s certainly a notable news event but it’s hard to see what it could have to do with this thread.
  3. Success rate isn't a measure of explosiveness. It's actually the opposite. It's a measure of the percentage of time a team gained at least 50% of yards to go on 1st down, at least 70% of yards to go on 2nd down, and at least 100% of yards to go on 3rd and 4th downs. So a team that gains 5 yards on 1st, 4 yards on 2nd, and 1 yard on 3rd will have a higher success rate than a team who throws incomplete on 1st and 2nd and then for 20 yards on 3rd.
  4. So for the Texas Tech game for example, Texas had an expected turnover margin of 1.5, with the other 1.5 attributed to luck.
  5. His system doesn't say that turnovers are luck. His system says that creating turnover opportunities is skill (as measured by fumbles forced and passes defensed) but whether you actually turn those opportunities into turnovers is largely luck. According to his numbers, teams will generally revert to the mean of recovering 50% of fumbles forced and 22% of passes defensed. So a team who has 4 forced fumbles and 18 passes defensed is treated the same (as an expected 6 turnovers), whether those opportunities actually resulted in zero turnovers or 22 turnovers.
  6. The shit stains at Empower Texans tried to primary Bonnen (recruited a primary opponent and sank six figures into his campaign) so I'm cautiously optimistic Bonnen won't be terrible.
  7. All the more reason to get rid of the Senate. And I'm all for increasing the size of the house significantly.
  8. I wouldn’t say nearly everything or even necessarily most things but certainly many things.
  9. How about we let property use issues be decided at the level of government closest to those affected by them?
  10. Either get rid of the Senate or establish a maximum population size for states. At the 1790 Census, Virginia had 12.5 times many people as Delaware. As of the 2010 Census, California was 66 times larger than Wyoming.
  11. It'll be interesting to see what happens with school vouchers. Government funding of parochial schools is Patrick's wet dream. It's an issue that puts rural state reps in a tough spot because the school districts in their districts strongly oppose it but their evangelical constituents strongly support it. Straus protected rural House R's from having to vote on it last time around. It was mainly being pushed for by suburban Republicans but they got pretty wiped out last week.
  12. I think looking at week to week movement is silly in computer rankings. One of their major benefits relative to human polls is they don’t simply move teams up and down based on the prior week’s games. For example, a human poll gives LSU a major boost for beating #8 Miami and #7 Auburn over the first three weeks of the season and then just moves LSU up or down based on their performance week to week, without ever really looking back and reconsidering the value of those wins over what turned out to be fairly mediocre teams.
  13. This. Perhaps it will suck but Toy Story has earned the benefit of the doubt.
  14. What the fuck was that?
  15. Theo simply said nobody is untouchable, including him. Which is of course true. If the Indians called up and offered Lindor, Ramirez, and Kluber for Bryant, Theo couldn’t say yes fast enough.
  16. It’s not just because of the propaganda. There’s a significant (and incredibly sexist) bias against “shrill” older women.
  17. He’s 10th in the AL in fWAR and 9th in bWAR.
  18. What’s the benefit of announcing you’re firing the guy in three weeks? Either fire him now or just announce it after the Texas game.
  19. DanRydell replied to Helobious's topic in Football
    I don't think it should be a penalty but I'm also in favor of taunting and over the top celebrations.
  20. Hence why I said, "at least from a purely financial standpoint."
  21. It's hard to understand why Kershaw would take that deal, at least from a purely financial standpoint. $28m might be about right for his age 33 season but it's going to be even tougher for him to get a longer-term deal going into his age 34 season.
  22. DanRydell replied to Netzer's topic in Baseball
    Maybe. But if he’s on a decline and continues to have issues staying healthy, his prospects as a free agent in two years might not be so great so his overall earnings could benefit from grabbing more guaranteed money now. He should be able to get something like 7/$200m right now. So it’s a question of whether he and his agent think he could get at least 5/$130m two years from now.
  23. I know others who advocate for open borders but none of them are dems. Even if you’re a Reagan conservative who only cares about the bottom line and not the human rights aspect of it, there are reasons to favor open borders. Removing barriers to the migration of labor would increase world GDP by between 50-150%. https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/jep.25.3.83 Immigrants in the US receive 39% less welfare than native-born citizens per capita. https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/dont-blame-immigrants-bloated-welfare-state In EU countries, there is an inverse relationship between the size of a country’s welfare state and immigrant population. http://www.ia-forum.org/Files/ForumReport%20Fall%202010%20Migration3.pdf
  24. Arby’s seasoned curly fries are great
  25. They'll certainly know the difference when they grow up and don't have the opportunity to live and work in the United States. I support open borders so I would welcome the world regardless of whether they gave birth. The right to live and work and to flee oppression, be it physical or economic, is a fundamental human right.
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