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DanRydell
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Everything posted by DanRydell
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Obviously we canât test that prediction as Texas and App State arenât even going to play once, let alone play the numerous times necessary to determine the correctness of that singular prediction, but S&P+ generally performs fairly well. Collectively over time, teams that are projected to win 36% of the time do win roughly 36% of the time. Of course, when examining a single result, that means it would appear the prediction was âwrongâ roughly 36% of the time.
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https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/university-of-kansas/article220042375.html
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Heâs a douche because you disagree with his rating system? His system doesnât say Appalachian State would beat Texas by 9 or more 100% of the time. Hell, it says Texas would straight up win 36% or the time. So even taking the Appalachian State moneyline, he would expect to lose his house over 1/3 of the time.
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It matters a great deal to who won that game but it has little, if any, predictive value as to how those teams will perform in the future.
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how do I vote for judges? I don't know shit about these candidates.
DanRydell replied to Gil Bang's topic in Cloak Room
I assume the judges have endorsements so I'd probably look to those absent better information -
As much as waiting on Harper/Machado to set the market on superstars, I would imagine heâs also waiting on Donaldson for another data point on what teams are willing to pay 30-something free agents.
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Sure. There's certainly a risk. But there's far more upside to go with that risk if it was 10 years for $200M versus 6 years for $200M.
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Itâs hard to really evaluate without knowing how many years the $200m would be for. The problem for Bryant with signing any extension is it pushes his free agency into his mid-30s and recent trends indicate heâs not going to get heavily paid at that point.
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Lawyers typically want you to apply yourself anyway because the lawyer can only get paid for getting you past benefits, which requires you getting denied first so they can appeal that determination.
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Saw it tonight while on the road for work. Holy shit it was phenomenal and it absolutely hit me like a ton of bricks. Called my wife and cried on the drive back to my hotel.
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What's the Shag (Surly) consensus on the HPV vaccination?
DanRydell replied to ROFL BOX's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
What are you and your wifeâs concerns exactly? -
The Challenge: Final Reckoning - Premieres July 10th
DanRydell replied to Goo Punch's topic in Movies and TV
I don't feel great about it but I've thought Amanda was sexy as fuck going back to her AYTO season. -
You care so little youâre going to continually post about it. Do you have some reason to believe her grandpa follows her on Instagram?
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Of course I guessed. But itâs an educated guess. Individual MLB games are generally near toss-ups with teams rarely having greater than a 60% chance of winning (or a greater than 40% chance of losing). I do think there is value to not playing an extra game, but I think that value is more than offset by the increased odds of actually making the NLDS by having two chances to win rather than letting it ride on one game.
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Those are insane numbers (for example, fangraphs gives the Brewers a 47% chance of winning tomorrow, theyâd probably give them a 55% chance or so against the Rockies and a 45% chance or so against the Dodgers) but thatâs fine, weâll work with them. Letâs say having to play tomorrow decreases the Brewers chance of winning by 10% and the Rockies/Dodgers having to play increases the Brewers chance of winning by 10% So the Brewers would have a 36.8% chance of beating the Cubs, a 57.9% chance of winning the wild card game because they have to play tomorrow, and a 70.73% chance of winning the wild card game if they just forfeited tomorrow. So under your strategy, the Brewers have a 70.73% chance of advancing to the NLDS. By playing tomorrow and then Tuesday if they lose, the Brewers have a 73.4% chance of advancing to the NLDS.
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What would you say are the following: 1. Percent chance Brewers beat Cubs tomorrow 2. If they lose to the Cubs, percent chance Brewers win wild card game 3. Percent chance Brewers would have had to win wild card game if they wouldnât have had to play tomorrow
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This is the stupidest idea Iâve ever read. Needing to win one game out of two is so exponentially better a position to be in than needing to win one game out of one.
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Her grandpa probably doesnât follow her on Instagram or go out with her in Vegas.
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And a $20m fine
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It definitely got tiresome. Fortunately they usually abandon the theme after a few weeks.
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No one is suggesting he go to prison.
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It could just be a coincidence (or a correlation rather than a causation) but the winner of the final HOH comp has won 9 of the last 11 seasons so I wonder if that comes into play in some of the juror's minds more than we may realize.
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Fessie went home because Kaycee beat him in a POV comp that could not have been more tailored to his skill set. It wouldnât surprise me if his vote was that simple. She also won the POV the next week when Scottie went home the second time but I wouldnât think thatâs what decided things for Scottie.
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Sam was also a perfect example of piss poor jury management and it singlehandedly cost him the game. He spent all season cultivating a personal relationship with her and then just lied to her face while sending her out the door.
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She didn't say anything to really help her position but she didn't actively make her position worse like Tyler did.
