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DanRydell

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Everything posted by DanRydell

  1. The Secret Service is a left wing conspiracy?
  2. I really wanted to love this but holy hell that was a boring 2.5 hours
  3. I don’t think regular S&P+ even knows whether you won or lost a game, let alone by how much. It simply knows how you played within that game. And it ignores all data while the game is in garbage time. So for your Bama-Ole Miss example, it would never even know the second half of that game occurred.
  4. The reason seems pretty straightforward...
  5. Jontay Porter tore his ACL in a scrimmage today. That family is snake bit.
  6. Saw this today. It was excellent. And his girlfriend is gorgeous.
  7. Is this really more uncomfortable than when they ask you to sign a receipt with a tip line on it?
  8. It went 63% ATS this week.
  9. Who are you arguing with? Nobody is advocating for requiring coverage of pre-existing conditions without requiring everyone to be insured except for Republicans who are lying and have no actual intention of protecting people with pre-existing conditions.
  10. S&P+ actually projects 7-2 as the most likely Big 12 record for Texas (34% probability) with 6-3 second most likely (31% probability). https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml# The author of that tweet simply gave each team a win or loss based on the projected winner of each game, which ignores that having a 5% chance to win and a 48% chance to win are extremely different.
  11. Dead people don’t write letters
  12. Yeah, that’s how representative democracy works. There are 149 Texas House members, 30 Texas State Senators, 434 US House members and 98 US Senators who have no reason to care what I want. Them’s the breaks.
  13. To be clear, while S&P+ has Texas as underdogs in the next 3 games (42.5% vs. OSU, 41.8% vs. WVU, 48.6% vs. Tech), it is not predicting Texas losing 3 in a row as the most likely result. In fact, it has Texas going 2-1 or 3-0 as being more than twice as likely as Texas going 0-3. For the next 3 games, it gives the following probabilities for Texas: 0-3 - 17.2% 1-2 - 41.3% 2-1 - 32.8% 3-0 - 8.6%
  14. The model is not intended to measure which team has had the better season. It's intended to measure which team will be better next week.
  15. Obviously we can’t test that prediction as Texas and App State aren’t even going to play once, let alone play the numerous times necessary to determine the correctness of that singular prediction, but S&P+ generally performs fairly well. Collectively over time, teams that are projected to win 36% of the time do win roughly 36% of the time. Of course, when examining a single result, that means it would appear the prediction was “wrong” roughly 36% of the time.
  16. https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/university-of-kansas/article220042375.html
  17. He’s a douche because you disagree with his rating system? His system doesn’t say Appalachian State would beat Texas by 9 or more 100% of the time. Hell, it says Texas would straight up win 36% or the time. So even taking the Appalachian State moneyline, he would expect to lose his house over 1/3 of the time.
  18. It matters a great deal to who won that game but it has little, if any, predictive value as to how those teams will perform in the future.
  19. I assume the judges have endorsements so I'd probably look to those absent better information
  20. As much as waiting on Harper/Machado to set the market on superstars, I would imagine he’s also waiting on Donaldson for another data point on what teams are willing to pay 30-something free agents.
  21. Sure. There's certainly a risk. But there's far more upside to go with that risk if it was 10 years for $200M versus 6 years for $200M.
  22. It’s hard to really evaluate without knowing how many years the $200m would be for. The problem for Bryant with signing any extension is it pushes his free agency into his mid-30s and recent trends indicate he’s not going to get heavily paid at that point.
  23. Lawyers typically want you to apply yourself anyway because the lawyer can only get paid for getting you past benefits, which requires you getting denied first so they can appeal that determination.
  24. Saw it tonight while on the road for work. Holy shit it was phenomenal and it absolutely hit me like a ton of bricks. Called my wife and cried on the drive back to my hotel.
  25. What are you and your wife’s concerns exactly?
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