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Had Enough

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by Had Enough

  1. I want to dedicate this post to @Thatguy. In sheer number of balls batted at or near the LOS, PFF has Ewers tied with Shadeur Sanders and others at 8. That’s tied for 27th with 15 guys. Quick calculation shows that on a per pass basis Ewers is at 41st and Shedeur 42nd of those 42. I’d wager neither would be in the top 50 on a per pass basis. Dart, Gabriel, McCord all had more passes batted, all at a higher clip. Given our higher propensity for screens and the short game, It is below 2%. Drew Allan and Michael Hawkins had 0, if that moves the needed on wanting them. C Weigman and Alan Bowman are quite good too. There are somewhere in the vicinity of 25 guys that cut Ewers batted balls in half.
  2. I don’t think Flores was a late window guy. Rerick flipped from A&M to Texas, which makes his portal entry a bit surprising. But the unknown variables may be deciding factor. Volantis was the unique one that was more last minute. There are 11 pitchers signed/committed for next years team. 7 position players but that includes Jonah and 2 likely high draftees.
  3. Roster limits or not this is the likely outcome for a number of programs. It’s probably more NIL/portal than roster limits. It’s the Saban methodology. Sign and churn the roster with churn being even easier due to the portal. The Texas 2026 commit list shows 21 players. I can’t imagine there’s close to 21 of those guys on the roster come spring 27. There’s 17 for 2025. Yes, I’d expect the freshman numbers to dwindle at some point.
  4. Let’s not play both sides of the fence here. You want to implicate all of them rather just the 4. Who are the players you know? Yes, you’ve said that multiple times about Schloss. Most fans that care about that sort of thing are likely well informed and know that going back to TCU Schloss has found and/or developed talent. You could argue that once he got established at TCU there’s been better talent at TCU than Texas. If you were to use MLB as the measuring stick. If I’m interpreting 64 analytics properly, Tennessee has had 19 guys enter the portal. And I see a recent article from the Knoxville News that kicks it up to 22. LSU and UGa last year were at 14 and 15, respectively. These are amongst the best rosters in the country. I’d presume they are at or near the top of the NIL food chain. All these guys are not leaving due to the lack of natural ability. They also aren’t all leaving because they’re supremely talented. Teams are churning 25 to 33% of their roster. I’d wager even the best have similar guys to those you reference.
  5. Need to highlight it with excessive eye black.
  6. Speaking of QBs, what happened to @WinningIsHard?
  7. For many Heisman level QBs it’s about their surroundings more so than them. Numbers and team wins. Throw in the name Manning and a few splash highlights, and you have an immediate contender. Nevermind that Arch has an additional 8 months of practice reps, film study and maturity over last season. He’s a 3rd guy who should be hitting his prime college QB self. I’ll maintain my stance on Ewers over Manning. Sark thought he could win with both. So he stuck with the experienced guy. I believe even after the season Sark stated Ewers can “make all the throws” so there’s the theoretical prototype QB that he likes. Sark wouldn’t sacrifice the shot at the title just because. He liked Quinn, thought he could win and went with the incumbent.
  8. Probably true but Witt, Harrison and Mercer’s rehab were a little long. And Witt and Mercers were two years of no production.
  9. I’m well aware, but presumably balls that we can’t get to become hits, which may then become earned runs, right?
  10. I am bit curious about injuries. A Longhorn baseball savant sent me a podcast with Schloss. He mentioned Mercer hitting 97. That’s two years running he seemed slated for a big role but pitched very little. Then Spencer. Last year was worse. Curious if we have a higher, more longed injury rate than others.
  11. Damn. I wonder what our staff ERA would have been had our 2B, SS, and 3B been able to wipe their own asses defensively.
  12. In college baseball, there’s pretty much never a team that knows what it has to start the season. Not 1-9. Not the entire pitching staff. Odd that we are supposedly a program that is based on CWS or bust yet lose our shit on a midweek loss. Those games are available to find out what you have for that post season run. Cowan had pitched 3 innings Friday night. Let’s keep in mind he’s a Wofford transfer that throws about 90. You are correct they could have gone Evans and maybe that works out, buts it unlikely he finishes that game. In the end, LSU looks to have trusted about 4 pitchers. Highlighted that Cowan only started twice - both post season. Then Eysnson came in to finish Little Rock. Had they lost their Spencer, they’re likely worse off than us in spite of having all that talent on their team. They didn’t trust those fast ballers to throw strikes. The difference in LSUs final outcome as compared to ours is they got a weak regional. They didn’t lose Anderson or Jones. Then they stayed out of the losers bracket so their lack of trust in that staff didn’t impact the outcomes. Here are some numbers to chew on for Horns versus UTSA. Bing and Howard combined for 7 innings of no hit ball on the early season against them. Ruger gave up 1 run in 4 innings. I believe the discussion then was it very much mattered to UTSA. Now Burns. He gave up 4 hits and 1 earned run on that Tuesday night. He allowed all 3 inherited runs to score. So let’s advance the season a couple of months. You’re up 6-5. One out, 2 runners on. Who you going to out of the pen? Burns it is. He proceeds to give up 3 hits, 1 run of his own and allows both inherited runs to score. The only out recorded was a throw out at home. Teams don’t know what they have in the early season. The situation you highlighted is a bit of contrast with our end to the season. We had some data points for several guys but chose to ignore them. I haven’t heard the rationale for our regional pitching choices, but the choices were odd. And several were not good with signs indicating that potential outcome.
  13. Sounds like some of you need to pull some strings and get us Wisconsin.
  14. Well damn your math is correct. Maybe I was just rounding for ease. All those schools you mentioned would be good on the schedule with a mix of variation, newness and historical opponents. Not exactly sure my reasoning but I’d like a Northwestern. Maybe paired with historical mid-tier P4.
  15. Who are your big time marquee teams? There are two parts to this scheduling equation. There’s a good chance you see some programs willing to risk a loss and some that are not. For many of those teams, they may be better off playing a mid tier SEC team as their win probability goes up. I’m not sure other SEC teams are willing to schedule 50/50 games. Outside of the Ohio States, Bamas, Georgias, Oregons, and Texas, the more realistic goal for most teams is make the playoffs and build from there. And that early season loss accompanied by a championship game loss may leave little wiggle room for all those teams. I don’t think OSU will be afraid to schedule. I don’t think Texas will be afraid. UGa and Bama are SEC so that doesn’t matter. Who else will be willing? A 3 loss team is certainly a possibility to win it. A game 1 loss and a championship game loss only leaves 1 more out of 10. If you consider that a virtual impossibility, why are we expanding? I would mark my calendar today to watch us play at Oregon. Also, don’t care if we get left out with 3 losses. Don’t take my speculation here as me advocating for weaker scheduling. I’m not.
  16. The 4 team playoff era versus more teams than that is not comparable. Plus a non-conference SEC road win is likely worth more than any other road win - maybe an OSU road win is comparable. Now, if you win the SEC, you’re likely to get the highest SEC spot even if #2 has the better non-conference win. An extra loss is likely as detrimental as a win can be a positive. That extra loss puts you one loss closer to exclusion but also drops you down in priority seeding. When talking a long season, an extra, physical game makes that more difficult. I am in favor of the extra tough game. I am quite certain a number of programs will not favor the additional risk.
  17. That was about the time when Bill Walsh became known, but the rules you reference were less impactful to his offense than the traditional passing offenses of that time. Obviously there’s been a continual evolution of the rules to make it an offensive oriented game. But Walsh (maybe it was someone else that started, but he was the guy to my knowledge) was the one that made the passing game an extension of the run game, which would have made the head slap and more use of hands less impactful as the ball was out quicker and often shorter. As for Texas high schools, in my experience and knowledge, it was the 90s that passing offenses became prevalent. Prior to that it was pretty limited except for the Detmers and a few others. Not really dual threat QBs yet. Looks like 7 on 7 began in 1994 or so. It’s not coincidental that there were few NFL QBs from Texas in the 70s, 80s and into the 90s.
  18. It was a bit more than the rule changes. The west coast offenses came around. And at the high school level in Texas, things changed significantly. Pre-1990, there were few NFL QBs from Texas but now it’s a high percentage, maybe more than any other state. It wasn’t because there weren’t athletes at QB in Texas. It was the offensive systems, the coaching, the coaching mentality, limitations on summer programs, 7 on 7, etc. People realized 3 yards and a cloud of dust was asinine.
  19. That’s fair. Winfield can likely be a contributor given time - just not sure patience is available. I missed watching many early season games, but he didn’t look comfortable on defense so putting in the work on both sides is pretty difficult. You know more than I do about the inner workings of the program, but, I’d be a bit surprised if he’s back too. I don’t know a damn thing about NIL allocations with respect to baseball, but I’d imagine it’s more difficult than other sports particularly given we’ve got draftable high school guys and current players. And none of that is known today.
  20. From what I recall (certainly may be way off), Winfield was a top 10-ish portal guy last year. If so, it raises questions about those rankings. I do not believe he was highly thought of out of high school. That’s fine and not an end all, be all but then only had 1 season at the college level. Slash lines are posted, but it’s very easy to drill down into the numbers. I wouldn’t expect most fans to do so, but it takes 5 minutes to drill down. His numbers last year were built largely on lesser teams. The same can be questioned for the Butler guy. He has two years of production though and his slash line was higher. Look at his numbers versus Louisville, Notre Dame, Xavier, Creighton, UConn. Those are more indicative of what you might see. He doesn’t walk a ton. He doesn’t steal bases. Their team is horrible. Statistically , you cannot garner much from a 2-3 with a double and a homer performance when you lose 31-5. No, he didn’t have much protection around him but at the same time I’m not sure there was a reason to pitch around him what with a team ERA above 10 and 15 wins. There likely weren’t tons of close games. Around 6-7 losses were 3 runs or less. Obviously he has some skills, but he’ll be far from what has become his comfort zone. He likely needs a good start to boost that confidence.
  21. Even so, do you think you could tackle him?
  22. One thing with DBs is that if they play early they get exposed decently often. Jahdae was great as a soph then struggled late as a junior once he got dinged up then was outstanding to cap his career as a senior. He had limited action as a frosh so you didn’t see his lack of maturity exposed that year. He was the most important and likely most impactful player we had on defense this year. He was incredibly versatile.
  23. Home field advantage decided in a somewhat subjective manner is enough. They could have easily flipped UNC-AZ with UM-UL. It is a small thing but an advantage nonetheless.
  24. I have a long but distorted memory. Still pisses me off whenever we were playing UC Something Something in game 3 at what was 1 am our time. Bs to have a team travel then give them odd, avoidable start times in complete conflict with when they normally play.
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