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Had Enough

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Posts posted by Had Enough

  1. You go with the chart. You just don’t call the dumbest play ever. 
    You can hit on 18 in blackjack and win.  But if you don’t play optimal strategy you will lose, unless you have a significant talent advantage. That happens in college baseball. It doesn’t really exist in pro baseball. 
    I’m not arguing pro baseball is a better game. I like them both. I’m just saying if you think the pros are not engaged in optimal strategy you are incorrect. 

    I’m not anti-chart btw but I think even though there is ton of data, I’m not convinced it always drills down enough. At the same time, I don’t know exactly what they have access to. For instance, I don’t think the chart knows whether the opposition has their top dlinemen out for the game. Things like that should play in to the equation. In football you still see decisions to kick 50 yard field goals rather than going for it on 4th and 2 when your conversion rate is 50+ versus 40% in converting the field goal.

    In the Carpenter example, if he does the bunt five times and gets 3 singles and 2 doubles, the numbers change and maybe the shift goes away. I realize if hitters hit into the shift continually, then it confirms that necessity. It did be interesting to see how a Tony Gwynn or Wade Boggs are played.

    The analytics are good tools, but I feel judgement calls are still needed more often. If you’re relying on analytics in baseball, you better have the data available to evaluate game situation including inning, outs, count, runners on, the pitcher, speed of the guys on base, etc. baseball does not seem great at breaking tendencies though which again would reaffirming usage of the data.
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  2. Do you go by Tom Herman’s 4th down chart every time or do you go with the flow of the game?

    What if the pitcher implodes with runners on? What about getting a runner on 2nd with no outs and a left hander up next? What if it’s 0-0 and you win 85% of the time when scoring first?

  3. If I’m on defense and I’ve reduced Barry Bonds into bunting for an easy single every time, that’s a gigantic win for me. So the prudent offensive strategy is to just try and hit the ball over everyone’s head everytime.
    Also, when the shift is on pitchers are going to pitch you in so that it’d be almost impossible to lay down a bunt towards 3rd even if you wanted to.

    But Joey Gallo is no Barry Bonds. He needs to learn to hit and maybe take a little off the swing with two strikes. I’m pretty sure you could put every defender on the right side ad he’d still pull it. But with Gallo on 1st after burning himself on, the next guy gets to hit without the shift due to the runner.

    I do think in the past hitters were more intellectual about it and could drive it to the opposite gap better. Hard to imagine a Tony Gwynn saying to hell with it and just saying I just want to hit it as hard as I can no matter what.
  4. Learn me the crazy shifting now - saw it some this week, seeing in an MLB game now - what the hell is that all about? 

    MLB is all about the shift. Partly because analytics say screw small ball. Partly because the players won’t take the easy single. But also a ton of data.

    College isn’t that way. But the shifts aren’t as extreme.

    A SS has a better chance up the middle to either get the guy at 2nd or 1st than in the hole. Partly due to glove side but also gets more on the throw. The big lefty should have been a relatively easy groundout.
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  5. And there it is!!!! Wondered when someone would bring up Kubicheck. Yeah no. Hansen, madden then Stevens. Let’s go 

    3.86 era in 12 starts. He’s a solid pitcher.

    Stevens has been poor two starts in a row. One was against poor hitting USF.

    We will have to manufacture a pitching performance out of the next 3. Feel good about Hanson and Madden.

    You feel good about Stevens versus MSU relative to Hanson?

    Or Kubuchek versus a less talented UVA that just had their hearts ripped out? If he struggles you can pull him for Hanson early. Only need about 5 then Cole and Nixon can finish it.

    All that said we’re going Hanson.
  6. And there it is!!!! Wondered when someone would bring up Kubicheck. Yeah no. Hansen, madden then Stevens. Let’s go 

    3.86 era in 12 starts. He’s a solid pitcher.

    Stevens has been poor two starts in a row. One was against poor hitting USF.

    We will have to manufacture a pitching performance out of the next 3. Feel good about Hanson and Madden.

    You feel good about Stevens versus MSU relative to Hanson?

    Or Kubuchek versus a less talented UVA that just had their hearts ripped out? If he struggles you can pull him for Hanson early. Only need about 5 then Cole and Nixon can finish it.

    All that said we’re going Hanson.
  7. If I remember right, when they announced the structure with the top six champs and all that, they said it completely assed 8, but in 12 only 4 teams in the top 12 over 7 years would have been knocked out.   Can't imagine many are going to cry about that.

    Somewhat irrelevant because the powers were jockeying for the top 4 spots now it’ll be 12.

    Home games and byes are very significant advantages not only in winning game 1 but subsequent games.

    The SEC and Big 10 still will jockey for every advantage.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if more discussion happened with regards to seeding versus who made it in/got left out.
  8. Kennedy had:
    - A badass fucking single that only a handful of guys in the country reach on 
    - A 10 pitch AB against their starter that he almost homered to end
    - A walkoff RBI double (ig they scored it a double but he probably would have gotten 3 there)
    And this dude was hitting like .235 most of the season. 

    I think you’re forgetting a sac fly for a team that can’t score Jack from 3rd with less than two outs. If the other team is throwing a righty I’m putting him in 2 hole with Daly 3.
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  9. Mike Scott. Perhaps my least favorite player of all-time. I guess I should just consider he was better and more accomplished in his efforts than others.

    Tacky shit, greenies, roids. All in the same category in my opinion. Dudes would have taken whatever was available or used whatever to enhance their game.

    Same pricks with their dumbass unwritten rules.

    I do view the Astros as MLB Aggie.

    I don’t think everybody cheats. Generally speaking MLB has looked the other way far too often. I prefer my favorite players to do things the right way yet Barry Bonds is probably my favorite player. A punk off the field. Go figure. So if I were an Astros fan, I’d probably take the route of making an exception to doing it the right way.

    With that said, I’m way more religious about Horns baseball so don’t tell me they’re like the SEC.

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