Had Enough

No doubt. There’s not a discussion about whether we’re a great team. It’s about varying degrees of mediocrity. In reading the boards, it’s difficult for me to determine sincerity versus, let’s call it, passion. Every season is largely built on a best 2 of 3 series. You can view the CWS as such too. You can’t go 0-fer in the midweek games but the season is made on the weekends. As we finish out this season, I cannot see a top 3 finish in a top 3 conference getting left out no matter the RPI. Of course if we finish there, our RPI likely improves. I would assume Hurley is our #4 starter now, but there’s more value in him as weekend long relief yet we haven’t developed him as such. So we’ll get the “Hurley sucks” and “he should never pitch again” when these guys are yanked around rather than allowing them to settle into a role. They will fail. And likely more than once or twice. It’s happening all over the country.

In my view, he doesn’t tweak the lineup enough in the midweek games. Those 3 recent losses consisted largely of our primary lineup and didn’t produce. The season is made on the weekends. Then quit being so damn dramatic acting as though anyone is happy being down 16-1 to UTRGV. No one is. Every week there are posters shitting down their legs about midweek games. Not even realizing Tech loses to UNM 17-3. Or FSU giving up 13 and losing to Mercer. The truth is there are really no applicable historical comparisons yet that’s what happens here. With the main reason being DP is not up to Texas standards - cause history. Miami just lost 17-1 and is not good. Stanford was in the 200s in RPI. Louisville gave up 17 to Kentucky in a midweek game last week. There are multiple solid teams that get run ruled each week. It’s a different baseball world in so many ways. I’d be surprised if any Texas baseball fan likes a mediocre team. The goal is the CWS. Every year but the landscape of making it 50% of the time is not realistic. Because that’s incredible and built over time in a less competitive world.

I think the point is that good teams lose games they shouldn’t occasionally. Now, the good teams lose those less often. And the great teams rarely lose them. Youre likely to forget those losses when you’re sitting at the CWS. And no I’m not saying we’re going to the CWS. Losing to UTRGV in that manner was terrible and no one is pleased but losing to BYU was worse in the bigger picture. Maybe UW too. TAMUCC was a bad loss, but they won a series from Lamar. There is more depth of talent than ever so with that you’ll run into teams that can beat you if they’re on.

Very well could match that usage. In exposure/usage, Blue trails Gibbs by a year. Wasn’t Gibbs the top transfer RB when he went to Bama? I’d expect him to top 1,000 yards. The original point was Blue selected in the 1st. It certainly could happen. I’m merely betting against it even more so next year than if he were to come out the following year. RBs are valued less so we’re likely talking 1-2 taken in the 1st at most. Since 2020, you have CEH, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Bijan and Jahmyr as 1st round guys. Three of those guys had multiple big years in college. One that didn’t is the bust of the bunch and was beat out by a younger, 7th round guy. He was the guy and had around 1,900 yards from scrimmage his last year at LSU. Blue is a bit on the taller side and more slightly built than the rest. He hasn’t played extended snaps and hasn’t been a starter. We don’t know yet how good a pass catcher he is at this point. Merely speculation on my part, but two of those 5 picks wouldn’t be made again. Maybe even a third. The Steelers have gotten better value out of a free agent than Harris. Pacheco over CEH. Bijan didn’t have a great season for a top 10 pick (not saying it’s his fault). No doubt Gibbs is the best comp. He is the only comp of that bunch. When the Lions selected him, they had 3 of the first 34 picks as well. They signed a quality RB to share the load. And Dan Campbell is a wild card. Teams are trending away from spending resources on RBs. KC has won super bowls with low round picks, castoffs and low profile RBs leading the way. It may be the position with the shortest lifespan for quality players. All that said I applaud the projection. If it comes to be, he likely had a far better season than most would project.

Gibbs for Blue seems reasonable from a skill set standpoint so that’s a good path to follow for him. Maybe there are more NFL guys out there willing to draft an RB high and have them split time at least in the short term. I never thought Bijan was that guy, but he had to give up reps last year. I’m not to the point of believing others think like Dan Campbell.

Total numbers you’re probably in the ballpark. This year had a lot of picks from the high profile teams - final 4, Georgia. That may well continue so I’d put us as odds on favorite to be in that group again. I wouldn’t put money on Juan Davis getting drafted but just riding the wave of a positive report or two. I’d like Gbenda to get drafted since he’s hung in there. He plays hard and is physical. No idea actually how fast or agile he is though.

If he were to come out next year, I’m going with the assumption that Baxter will get a 50% share and a stronger majority of short yardage/goalline reps. The first round RBs of late fit a bit different profile than Blue. And obviously there are not many in the first place. I view him more in the Pollard, CEH profile (but more upside) than McCaffrey, Saquan, Bijan, Breece Hall type. I am not one to limit the possibility of Blue being a 3 down guy so it’s as much about having the opportunities to prove he can do it for an extended period of time to warrant a 1st round pick. I do believe some at the NFL level do see that limitation and his opportunities next year won’t be as such to convince others differently.

That’s awfully aggressive. Holmes and Blackwell No. Blue won’t be considered a 3 down back so no round 1. Majors no round 3. Brooghton in 6. Juan Davis in 7. Do we get credit for Brooks?

Whittington I believe rates very highly in missed tackles force on pass receptions. That could mean several things. My vote is that he’s good with the ball in his hands.

Might have been man with a single high safety. Black was pretty tight to the LOS and didn’t give ground. I wouldn’t expect the S to get there as it was a long way to go and the WR had leverage pretty quickly.

So Collins gets into the backfield, knocks the TE off his path to kick out the end which allows the deflection and pick 6 and the Oline gets off clean on that play?

There’s some odd stuff in the RPI. I don’t think top-40 ish TCU is in over us or are they? Auburn and their 2-16 conference record is in the 40s. Notre Dame is 5-16 in conference is top 40. UCF and their bottom half of the Big 12 record is top 30 because of their non-conference east coast schedule. OU is 10-10 in non conference. Got swept by Lamar. The Lamar that just lost 2 of 3 to TAMUCC. Rutgers at 3-9 in conference is 12 spots ahead of us. Quite a few relatively high RPI teams with mediocre to bad conference records.

Yes, that was Mukuba tackling Baxter on the goalline. i will be interested to see if we run some version of that play that Blue scored on the pass. That’s a tough ask for the LB and difficult read for the S cause you don’t see it often. And of course Blue is an open field mismatch.

Here’s a bit of background on my philosophy. Had a former Big 12 skill guy work with some kids. He works with others maybe even some 4/5 star skill kids but didn’t ask specifically. He can throw the ball. So he threw it probably 65 yards. Kids couldn’t catch shit. 40 yards easier. He said others he worked with weren’t any good either. Can’t track it at 65 but much easier at 40. The more they run, the more the ball travels the more fatigue sets in and eye discipline fades. I’m also guessing none of these other kids have throwers that can replicate it. And it’s really not something an offense relies on. So the reps aren’t there. I’d say the same here. The Worthy catch has some similarities. Not just can anyone can make that throw. But they don’t rep it out that manner in practice. A bit like that other reference I made to the throw that traveled about 80 yards but went out of bounds. You’d be hard pressed to find 10 guys to throw it that far. It’s hard to replicate reps for that. And not an efficient use of time anyway. But I’ll bow out of commenting further on this one. You can have the board.

Fair enough.

Pull up the half dozen from Mitchell better. You made that initial claim. Then another claimed Mitchell’s from that same game was better. I never said the best of all time but it was a great catch. Mitchell’s versus TCU was great one too. I’d say that Mitchell one was more difficult than his Bama one.

I never said Card was better at deep balls. There were never complaints about Worthy’s tracking abilities on Cards throws. That’s what I was inferring. There were only complaints about Worthy tracking in 1 of 3 years. And in that year, only complaints when 1 of the 2 QBs was playing. Just odd that Worthy sucked at that component of his game for an isolated period of time.

Bullshit. since BO&W threw out Mitchell in Bama, let’s compare that one. Mitchell ran about 40 yards. Straight downfield for the most part without having to navigate any defender for at least 20 yards. Worthy ran probably at least 65 yards, up and slightly across field with the expectation to be led away from the defender not back into him. The ball traveled similar distances but probably further for Worthy’s throw by a bit. In these two alone, Worthy had to adjust his route more, his head/body more, had to deal with the defender more, likely had to maintain his speed more. The longer the route the more difficult to track the ball. 65 yards is not normal made more complicated with each body shift.

Worthy caught 26% of deep balls in 2023. 21% in 2022. 33% in 2021. Really that’s just a broke hand missed ball or two from 2022. Average depth of target probably mid 30s. Mitchell was 36% in 2023. JT was 60% in 2022 and 27% in 2023. 21 combined targets at an average depth of target in the mid 20s. JW caught 7 of 9 over the two years. Average depth of target mid 20s. QE deep completion % was 34% in 2023 and 30% in 2022. HC was 36% in 2022 and 23% in 2021. CT was 33% in 2021. That’s all over the board. But the original question was surrounding the sack rate. QE not only got rid of it quicker in 2022 he threw it 25% deeper. At one time I set some parameters of all QBs for the 2022 season and it was top 5%in getting rid of the ball but also top 5% in deepest average depth of target. That 2022 note is the anomaly, which coincides with the season in which Worthy effort and tracking are in question but weren’t on Cards plays. Throwing and catching are timing. If you throw at 5 yards when you’ve worked all season at 10 yards, then you will have more awkward looking plays. And probably some that the receiver either never sees the ball or sees it way too late. There were a number of these with other pass catchers too. Worthy plays hard. It makes no sense for him to not attack at the ball on certain plays. This is an alternate consideration.

Good thing for you his worst struggles come on Thursdays.

Well first off I was responding to another post that was referencing 2022 not portions of 2023. It was within the context of referencing why QEs sack rate was lower in 2022 than 2023. Here’s something else to ponder. Why in the fuck is it that Worthy’s tracking skills were an issue in only 1 of the 3 seasons and 1 of 3 QBs? And that 1 QB it wasn’t even all the time. I’d even wager that you’ll never see a better ball tracking example than Worthy on that Bama TD. He ran a long way, the ball traveled a long way, and caught it damn near with his turned from the point at which it originated. Another example was this year, maybe Rice, when the ball traveled 80 yards in the air, and he caught it a yard out of bounds (not his fault it was oob). In a subsequent post, I even referenced other players being surprised or caught guard off at the arrival of a pass. In that season of 22, not 23. One hit Roschon in the damn head. Yes, that’s all part of timing/route running. I’ve referenced it previously that QE is often anticipatory thrower. It looks great when it works but less so when not. As an inexperienced dude, he was a little anxious but that improved in 23 and will likely in 24. Probably anxious to avoid hits. A little too excited at times perhaps. I gave numbers to support the theory. A theory as to why his sack per pressure was high relative to his peers in 23 but was far less so in 22. I made no declaration as to his overall abilities. Sorry, I don’t know if you’re Joel Klatt, Joe Montana, Todd Dodge and Bobby Burton rolled into one. I’m glad he throws the most catchable ball you’ve seen but not sure how that’s supposed to wow me. But there are numbers to say that his ball in actuality to date , at this level, is around 65-70% catchable. The catchable rate in 22 was probably not as high as in 23. I look forward to your next bolded post. Perhaps throw in some italics, underlines so I can tell if you really mean it.

Gasparino hurt or just pulled?

Their exact definition of how it’s recorded is not known to my knowledge but should have some consistency across all games/teams. I know there have been pressure rates quoted from elsewhere that vary. They’re just working under different methods. From what I gather, multiple players can have a pressure on one play in PFF whereas as others may look at it as only one per play. So if Murphy and Burke both whiff on a QB on the same play, each gets credit for a pressure. No idea what constitutes a pressure though. The value would be in its relation to the rest of its own database with data created under the same methodology.

That stuff I quoted was PFF. They have the sack per pressure info.

It was probably part caution but part just throwing it and hoping for the best. In 2022 his average time to throw was 2.44 with an average depth of target of 10.5 yards. In 2023, those were 2.57 and 8.4. He threw screens 18.2% of the time in 2022 versus 18.1% in 2023. So you wouldn’t think that would significantly adjust the average time to throw or depth of target. In 2022 he got rid of it quicker and threw it deeper. Part of that Worthy tracking issue likely goes hand in hand with this. QE was too rushed and threw the ball before his pass catcher was ready. In just the OSU game, you saw Bijan, Roschon, Whitt, Sanders all had instances of the same. It wasn’t just Worthy. I don’t recall the breakdown but essentially no one got rid of the ball that quickly and threw it so far downfield than QE in 2022. His pressure rate in 2022 was 22.6% (23.7% in 2023). His sack rate per pressure was 13.9% in 2022 (25.2% in 2023 - not sure why it’s different than what I quoted in previous post). He likes to decide and throw quickly. His average time to throw when kept clean was very similar each year. So the real difference was he was more patient in trying to make something when pressured in 2023. And that resulted in more frequent sacks but more first down scrambles too.