Had Enough

The ACC has been weak for years. Lots of poor QB play too. Top to bottom it’s a poor conference. All the teams in are from major conferences. It’s sorta bad luck on FSUs part. The selling point isn’t even that we’re better. It’s we won against our crappy schedule. Never mind Georgia you got Bama; we got Louisville.

If you ignore their schedule, then sure. FSUs toughest opponent = LSU. That’s Bamas 4th toughest. FSU did not play any of the top 4 ACC finishers in the regular season. Their top finisher? Va Tech. The same Va Tech that lost to Rutgers (6-6), Purdue (4-8) and Marshall (3-5 in the Sun Belt). Southern Miss won 3 games and lost to ACU and Tarleton by combined 38. North Alabama won 3 and lost to Mercer (Ole Miss maybe beat Mercer 73-7). Travis or not, FSU has done nothing to prove they’re more deserving other than beating the crappy teams on their schedule. Georgia, Ohio State, Bama, Texas, Washington, Michigan, Oregon. Yeah. I’d put money that at least 4 go undefeated against that schedule.

I know. But their conference schedule is atrocious. Played the bottom 6 finishers. People give the SEC hell about their scrimmages but FSU had two - Southern Miss and North Alabama. 5 wins against team with winning records. Two of those had backups playing.

I haven’t read all this but just wanted to say as of right now FSUs best conference win is a home game against a team that lost to Purdue, Marshall and Rutgers.

I did not know until now that FSU played the 6 worst teams in the conference. Did not play any of the top 4 until tonight. And their highest finishing conference foe lost to Purdue, Marshall and Rutgers. Their non conference foes lost to ACU, Tarleton and Mercer amongst others. Duke was winning until their QB went out. Miami started a backup. UF played a backup QB. They beat LSU.

So you want it be comparable? The NFL has fewer teams with more balanced schedules. Seeding will matter a ton. Who gets a bye, who gets a home game. That will matter more in college and will get scrutiny beyond what the NFL gets due to imbalanced schedules. So we’ll try harder to make it right.

That should be easily correctable on Red. That’s a negative on Sark. That was a generally effective set that we’ve seemingly thrown away. I don’t think he’s a full time RB but more situational. Baxter will probably be the best short yardage guy longer term.

I watch too much live football to know who’s the best. There probably are a number of teams better in short yardage though. I think Red would be fine in wildcat if we’d run anywhere but left seemingly every time. I’d like to see Red in at RB with QE at QB. Baxter has been a little slow going. Our strength is versatility and explosiveness in our depth.

Well room doesn’t imply just two. I’d be surprised if anyone else has a 4th/5th guy like Keilan, who has made big plays in non garbage time. Or a 4th/5th guy like Red that has run/thrown wildcat with some success. Blue has some skill. Baxter was a top recruit. And Brooks. They can run. They can catch. Some can block a bit. No idea where they rank but that’s a good group.

Majors. Just for the letdown factor for many.

1. I get you but view it differently. Rice and Wyoming are not coin flips. Houston really wasn’t but damned if they didn’t almost get us. I’d agree that no win is 100% guaranteed, but in my mind, there were few that were close to 50-50. 2. You are referencing our history. Nothing 3 years ago matters. That’s the battered fan syndrome. You are correct that more talented teams lose every year. But the Bamas, Georgias, Ohio States of the past 5 years are doing quite well in that regard. That’s in part because their talent disparity over their opponent has grown. I believe in our talent. The talent in the Big 12 is down too in my opinion. I believe in our growth trend from an individual and team perspective. We may not have the talent of those 3 teams above, but we are not far off. And a big part of this equation is that our Big 12 opponents are not in a great talent/experience situation.

I’m happy and I’ve never said otherwise. Overachievement would be beating teams more experienced and talented than us and not losing to those less talented. Bama may be more talented than us, but it’s marginal at best. They had an inexperienced QB and a frosh LT. Ours may not be supremely experienced, but they’re similarly talented with more experience. Their Oline has not been particularly good in several years either. Who exactly on our schedule can say they have better talent and experience than us? TCU wasn’t going to replicate their season. ISU has a frosh QB. KSU lost arguably their best offensive and defensive players. OU was coming off a terrible season, has minimal depth. Bu, OSU, Tech? So it was one coin flip, maybe two. You’d expect to hit one. Throw in a slip up game and you’re at 10 wins. Anything less than is absolutely battered fan syndrome. 10-11 wins was reasonable and what talent and experience indicated as a reasonable expectation.

I’d agree on that ceiling for most people. I just said not all of us had 10 wins as the ceiling. Maybe that was less than 1%, I don’t know that answer.

Not all of us. 10 wins was the minimum. This season is not an over achievement. Maybe it could be. But it’s not thus far. People ignore history and ignore roster turnover of all other teams. They shit themselves over perceived team and individual failings while again ignoring history and other teams issues. They also overinflate their own teams and individuals that wow them. The talent, experience and balance of this team was no doubt top 10 and borderline top 5 from the get go. When I say borderline top 5, I am being conservative. Really the surprising elements are how well Sweat and Auburn have performed. No one else really surprised.

Tech is not a big play passing offense that was missing Price. Morton goes deep 14% of the time and completes 34%. 24% of passes behind the LOS. 60% at 9 yards or less. His yard per attempt is 6. Brooks has 24 catches for 72 yards. None of those reflect positively for an explosive offense. We just attack differently based on opponent. They don’t pose much of a passing threat. Our pass rush was decent and they couldn’t break us down escaping the pocket. And from an unprovable standpoint, it was just going to be our night. Brooks wasn’t going to beat us himself.

….

Catalon was in on 2 drives at least. There’s a lot of concern about pass D here. He’s not an answer for that. He’s not going to be.

Im on the opposite side so maybe that impacts my perspective.

From an outside perspective, he has the structure of the program in great shape. I’m not sure there’s anyone out there that is better suited for long term success.

It was the oddest injury I’ve ever seen. Not a big hit. He tried to drag/pull himself up but it just wouldn’t work. He was down for a long time then walked straight to the locker room without any help. But his walk didn’t give the impression that he’d return.

I don’t recall the Hellraisers either. The replays were better. Some more Longhorn band and you’re getting close to having right.

Pff shows him as having 1 defensive snap. I never saw him back in there but easily could have missed it.

Well it was tied, they had momentum, and the dude had no prior reps.

Now look up the offense.

I’m not hating on him. QB is no doubt important. We did beat the 2nd/3rd best team on our schedule without him though. He played great versus Bama. He had a poor start versus OU. He finished well. I’m not ready to say he’s better than Sam. I know Sam will have played with less talent and that more was on his shoulders. Probably considerably so. His best is yet to come, particularly if he returns next year. He’s improved since last year. I’ve certainly never said our opponents don’t respect our passing game. I’ve merely questioned the assertion that they’re willing to concede bunches of rushing yards to do that. I’ve watched a few plays from 2022 and 2023. KSU moves around on D presnap quite a bit. It’s not like ksu was playing press man versus Murphy. The numbers say he’s excellent in the intermediate range but considerably less so in the deep and short passing areas. His numbers are top tier behind the LOS. Our Oline metrics show that we’re good at pass blocking - pressure rate is top 5 or so best. He gets sacked at a high rate per pressure because he’s trying to make things happen. But he’s made some runs because of it. He’s missed a few opportunities for big plays when escaping the pocket. We have as good of skill talent as anyone in the country on that side of the ball. This will be the last post here but…… Make no mistake, if he wins, I win.