Had Enough

The ESPN rebroadcast cut out our first drive and also the back-to-back holding penalties on us. No way in hell their DL outplayed our OL. Trice was good, but he was neutralized a fair amount too. Great call on 3rd and 5 to rush him up the middle in half 1. It shouldn’t have fooled us but did. His 2nd half sack was as much QB movement as blocking. The Blue fumble was bs. They were blowing the hell out of the whistle before Trice showed up. Not an immediate recovery at all. Blue is an upper level talent though. But the fumbles were huge. There were opportunities to overcome them though. Generally speaking, I feel like we played decently well. There wasn’t really anything good about the last 4 plays. The disappointing matchup was their DBs versus our WRs. Their staff did a good job creating opportunities for their WRs, better than we did.

Watching the replay. So far we are outcoached. And it’s certainly more common to attempt to run for a 1st to end the game than take a knee and leave time on the clock. Hard to fault one coach for a call the majority would make.

Did Washington’s DL outplay our Ol? Two sacks given up. 6 plus yards per rush but only 26 of them. Several of you have harped on defenses playing pass D over run D. I think UW certainly did that. In spite of the grousing of the stat PFF had UW with 14 pressures on about 45 dropbacks. We had 20 on about 40. I don’t think the UW DL outplayed our OL. But we did not emphasize what was working best.

Damn people. The threat was always against our corners. Set aside Houston and there was not much attacking the safeties. The offense had one isolation versus Bama on a safety. One versus KU (game was essentially over at that point). Against Houston, I believe one TD was the corner, one was in a 4/5 wide in which the QB escaped the pocket, rolling to the same side, then one S isolation with a damn good throw. TCU, KSU didn’t attack the safeties. Tech, OSU. Nope. OU only got 1 deep against a guy that wasn’t playing late in the season. BU got 2 deep, one against a guy not playing late, and the other debatable as to whether that was even safety play. Rice, Wyoming, BYU didn’t accomplish much. The biggest risk to safeties in pass coverage is 4/5 WR sets and isolated 1 v 1 down the field. That’s every team in America, every year. Our personnel sets are 5 DBs. Always. So straight up man from the safeties would be the 4th/5th guy with one of those likely being a TE or an RB. That’s not a major disadvantage for our safeties. It wasn’t all year. We emphasize taking away the run. With that there will opportunities to isolate a WR on the corners. They have 3 very capable wideouts that they’d happily go to against our corners. Barron is great, but he’s best around the LOS. There’s limited value in working against safeties when you can more easily get those matchups versus corners.

I don’t know exactly, but I don’t think it’s pressure per play in that you can have multiple pressures per play. If Penix were to avoid 3 rushers on one play, all 3 get a pressure, which could be accurate. The measurement criteria is probably well defined but would still have subjectivity. Just like any stat it needs to be taken into context. You’d hope that the method of measurement is consistent.

This is the question I have. And I’d lean towards the defense playing less aggressive and towards the pass.

In retrospect, I’m not totally surprised by the number of pressures. We had 2/3 real good shots at sacks. He had several very quick reads in which there’s virtually no way to get there. On the season we averaged around 21 per game so our pressure was on par with our average. Penix was great. Mobile, decisive, accurate.

Isolate Mitchell and pre-snap read perhaps? That 4th down play was only going one place.

All those are good descriptors of Hill. I remember a body slam tackle that was inspiring. He does attack very strong when he has a clear path. It’s probably just experience. I was hopeful that we’d get after Penix better. We didn’t and when we did, he escaped.

I think is partly right. I’m not sure arm angle is a big deal. On short routes, you need passing lanes. I think that was a concerted effort to combat our RPO game. Might be a reason we had success running. Less aggression on attacking the run but stay home and get hands up.

Yes, pressure was the reason it was early. The throw to Worthy had some air on it. He was looking but just never saw it. Reminds me of the end of last year’s baseball season. Sanders looked to have seen it but saw it late.

Obviously, this has kept me up. No doubt Hill has much time left and tons of improvement will occur. But there’s not tons of statistical support to say that he’d be a factor versus UW. Half his sacks were in game 2 in which he was playing a different role. And he was going against 8th year Covid seniors versus UW. In retrospect, we might have been better off letting him work the pass rush specialist role rather than work on being a full time LB. But at this point, we’re better off the next two years because of all the reps he got.

What if I told you Hills pressure rate is the lowest of any LB (top 3 each year) since PK arrived? What about if he had the fewest tackles per play over the past 3 years? The numbers inside the numbers can be quite interesting. The truth is that Hills season is based more on hype/recruiting profile than production. Gbenda had a higher pressure rate, higher sack per pass rush rate, higher tackle rate on run plays, higher tackle rate overall per play, and his tackles in the run game were made closer to the line of scrimmage on average. Completion % in coverage is basically the same. Gbenda has 1 forced incompletion and 1 pass defensed. Hill has one dropped interception. The average yards per completion favor Hill. Both gave up 1 TD. Hill had more targets and played more coverage snaps. You can reconcile that however you like.

Dome stadium with lights and shit for one. The ball was released while he still in his route before getting his eyes on it. He never saw it for those reasons. We saw it a lot last year. Sanders had one last night too although probably not a potential lights issue.

There’s no doubt they’ll take the matchups with anyone if you choose to blitz. My hope was to create some pressure and play coverage behind it. We didn’t really do either. I would have been ok with us attempting to make them take what the defense is giving, but you cant really do that with 5 DBs when they have 3 above average WRs and a good pass catching TE. A good play caller is going to find 1v1 matchups. We needed Murphy to create interior pressure and that Sorrel and Burke could collapse the pocket some. Burke did get some pressure but the others rush lanes were broken when that did occur. Any press coverage was asking for trouble. Muhammad and Holmes might have been fine there but Holmes hardly played. We’re a run first defense and until that changes we’re vulnerable to the pass game. Great pass rushers and cover corners are difficult to find

Yeah, I wouldn’t say they are really that close. But Penix was great last night.

Two things. Those probably aren’t final grades. And QBs on good teams typically grade high relative to other positions.

Those questioning the Blue fumble being an immediate recovery are correct. If either Worthy or Helm heard a whistle, then that’s a dead ball. That’s the important of the clear recovery. That other players could have no impact on the ultimate recovery. My guess is there is a disconnect between the field and upstairs on such a play. The only guy that knows for certain is the guy that blew the whistle, and he has no direct communication with the replay official.

So you’re saying as a team we are not there yet. They obviously pass block well, but of those 27 games, they’ve only played 1 playoff participant to my knowledge. You cannot realistically expect the back-end to hold up if the QB is not made uncomfortable. At any level.

Yep. And as for why we can’t find a monster pass rusher, beats me. But we also need to remember those are a bit rare. I’d speculate that part of that starts with taking away either the pass or run game. We elect to take away the run game. That’s easier than taking away the pass game. So you take a raw Ant Hill and make him an every down player. So he’s really got to work on his entire game and the run game. I’d speculate that his pregame prep leans more heavily towards a non-pass rush focus. Now, let’s think about his most effective pass rush game. I’d go Bama. And from what I recall, he was a situational 3rd down guy. The QB is yours. Go get him. You never know early season, but in the end, we might have had a better chance versus UW had they let Gbenda continue getting many reps throughout the season and allowing Hill to predominantly focus on getting after the QB. I’m not sure how it worked scheme-wise but think Collin Oliver as a frosh versus now.

Pass defense starts upfront. 40 dropbacks and no sacks. In spite of what happened on the back-end, the pass rush had little positive impact. Not only no negative plays, but limited hits, throwaways, throw before he was ready type plays.

At that point, there’s limited benefit to releasing your back. You basically have 4 total plays. Leave him to help pass pro. Whatever it was, that was as poor an attempt as you’ll see in that situation. Awful.

It’s stupid to say we’re having bowls and playoffs as the same thing. So you get to play 2-3 bowl games a year? Dumb. Obviously, you’ll rotate thru those same venues. As always, there have been entertaining bowl games this year. For those that don’t enjoy those even with a limited rooting interest just need to stay out of the discussion. There are plenty of teams, players and fans that do a shit. It’s a bit shitty to say they’re meaningless. Even had FSU had all their guys, I’m not sure we get a competitive game. Now, imagine a world in which that FSU team got a 1st round bye then a home game. It’s quite possible this years seeding go differently because the thought process is different.

I believe Sark made a handful of decisions last year for this year. You could include last years bowl game as part of that. Not playing to lose but preparation to an extent for next year (2023). It’s the reason he rode Ewers thru ISU, TCU last year. Sark is all in for this year. I agree with your post. Both teams should and will likely be confident. In my opinion we’re a balanced team - offensively and defensively. That includes our staff. Our playbook is open. We are no longer inexperienced anywhere on offense. We’re experienced on defense. The wildcard is our pass rush. If we play our game offensively, we will score points. Then it comes down to how many stops will we get.

Of all the shit they call and they let that asshole hit him upside the head.