Had Enough

Mack needed to go. We were closer to the 2010 5-7 team than we were to the 2008/09 teams. And those teams already had lesser talent offensively than 5 years prior. Mack left Swoopes for the QB room. He didn’t leave shit at the Oline. There was good talent on D, but much of it was upperclassmen that had 1 or maybe 2 years left. There was a certain purging that needed done. Whatever you want to say about Strong, he recruited Conner Williams. The first drafted olinemen since the 2004 recruiting class. That’s a problem. That was a Mack problem. Like Beuchele or not, he was good enough to hit the NFL. Sam too. While I like Swoopes, a 1-9 record leading his high school is not necessarily leaving the cupboard full. That was a Mack problem. There was a decent dose of talent that Strong left. So, no, the program was not worse. Yeah, I suppose Mack could have scrapped together some 7-5s. Yeah for us. I would suspect that Mack had he dragged out 3 more years would not have left NFL talent at as many positions for the next guy. That next guy may have stuck around longer had he not rubbed everyone the wrong way. In a sense, the evolution since that time has led us to our current position, which has considerable upside. Even in retrospect, you change that trajectory, and it’s likely Seven Win Steve is elsewhere and we have someone less suited for this current run.

Here are some of my favorite stats. The final two games of 2013. We scored 17 points. 7 of those on an 11 yard drive that took 7 plays. An 8 yard penalty on 4th allowed the drive to continue. In those two games, we had approximately 100 yards passing. In each of those two games, Baylor and Oregon had more interception return yards than we had passing yards. Go find me another time in history in which that has occurred. And, oh by the way, they had 2 pick sixes. So our offense if you attribute that 11 yard drive to them scored 17 and gave up 14 over those two games. And we had an NFL RB and a veteran Oline. I’d guess upward of 100 combined starts entering the season, which was significant back then. Mack wasn’t going to do shit. Think it was the very next year that in game 2 or 3 or whatever after Dominic Espinosa went down that we had fewer Oline starts than had the Oline simply gotten 5 each game up to that point. You were getting sketchy football no matter what.

There were some iffy moments in that game. Second play from scrimmage - just kinda blindly throws the screen. The 3rd down pass to Bond. Good throw, but he didn’t work the safety that great. The CB and S play was not good. From my view, his 3rd down run is when he got settled. Absolutely his best game at breaking pocket and getting the ball downfield after that. 2nd quarter there was a dangerous ball that easily could have been picked for potentially 6. Around midfield, in the middle of the field. Then later he threw one to the sideline when our guy ran upfield. Not real close to being picked, but it wasn’t a positive play either. That game is one that the near stuff went our way, allowed us to build confidence and create separation. Overall, we executed better.

Good job playing the long game here. Setting it up nicely for when we get a final 4 finish. Who knows maybe even a title. And I mean that legitimately. Here’s a nugget to help you sleep better at night. Quintrevion is top 5 in YPC in conference games in the S-E-C. Other top 5 dudes have much fewer carries and/or are now broken. We will win and lose first and foremost based on what happens upfront. You’d be hard pressed to find two teams better than us at those positions.

Was he worse in those games than when he led his offense to a whopping 13 points in each Super Bowl victory over the Rams?

Youre working in the theoretical rather than the actual. Cover 3 takes away the deep ball in theory. It does not take away the intermediate area too. We did not attack that area. If Michigan gets pressure like Georgia and actually hits the QB, it’s a different game. Instead Ewers breaks them down and makes several plays. They also missed a number of tackles. They ran 4, 5, 6 man fronts. Gave 2 high safeties several times. At least once the middle 3rd safety was 3 yards off the ball at the snap. That 20 yard pass to Golden was a bit out of rhythm, but he also was pressed at the snap. Several DBs blitzed too. They jumped two routes but fortunately there was no turnover. We played well.

That may be, but their issue was not cover 3. It was losing contain several times. Yes, I saw the Brooks grind the tape. Our first drive - 3rd and long. Cover 3. CB attacks upfield and allows Bond behind. Not a play call issue. The TD called back. Coverage broke down because of failing on pass rush integrity. Was this also the drive that Ewers converted a 3rd down with his legs and a pump fake? Yes, it was. Not a coverage issue. The Helm TD. Pass rush integrity. Seems like Goldens big play had a little QB movement and was a really nice throw. Not really a play call failure. Our 2nd TD drive we had 40 yards rushing and a 20 yard pass to Wisner. That’s a cover 3 issue? We made plays and they didn’t. They elected to keep things in front of them. If they execute better, they have better outcomes. We scored 10 points off short fields. There is critical information that we don’t have great information on. First is what do these defenses typically do? Then what is the actual breakdown of coverages. We have no idea whether any of these teams broke tendencies. At the same time, I never thought they blitzed that much. I am confident in saying it wasn’t the same blitz so whether you have that shell there is variation in the coverage. 22% of our passes were 10+ air yards. Half of those were referenced in this post. That’s a low number.

Michigan blitzed 45% of pass plays, Georgia 33%. Vandy was above 50%. OU 31%. For Vandy, Rinaldi and Fontenelle both rush the passer quite a bit but numbers look as though that was in overdrive versus us. I suspect they felt as they had to be the aggressor because we had the talent advantage. The success in the UM game versus the others is Ewers broke the pocket several times and made them pay. Unfortunately, two were called back. It was not us necessarily executing as the play was intended. We did have the big pass on the opening drive. But that should have never worked against cover 3. That was poor defensive execution rather than a poor call.

I just looked at it and Campbell was last by a comfortable margin. Banks is #1 in run blocking and overall. But no the masses don’t agree because Conner was #2 overall. Thing about the grades is they finalize at odd times and I’m not sure how many iterations they go through before it’s finalized.

Are you talking the same Mac Jones that hit almost 60% of his deep balls for 17 TDs? The one who had an average depth of target of 8.8 yards? Ewers probably just throws his screens much further behind the LOS to bring that average depth of target down. Sark does have stellar screen/short passing game. He’s had occasions here when the O is struggling a bit and hasn’t used it enough.

I’d probably give him a little more credit than most, but there’s a lotta dudes out there that were unfortunate as to their timing in life and when it was their time to be a Horn. Coaching matters. A lot. As a player, I’m not sure there’s ever been a better time to be a Horn than now. They just need a championship to make that a no doubter.

Was Diggs S in 2013? Thompson was solid. Phillips was pretty heavily criticized. 2017 had Brandon Jones and D. Elliott. That’s probably the duo right there.

That was overblown based on uninformed, biased opinions and unrealistic expectations. Last year, we played a high value slate of QBs that had a great deal of experience. And some very solid Olinemen. Solid skill position guys. This year, it’s hammered dogshit. I mean Dillon Gabriel whipped our ass, right? He had 7 games with more passing yards, and it was his lowest QBR or rating or so on the season. The pass rush was largely ineffective. Team game. For 3 years now, we’re top 10 in DFEI with improvement each year. You can’t get there with a unit that doesn’t contribute. Each year the player fit, the cohesion and the consistency should improve. That’s where we are now. We also have a front that makes those QBs uncomfortable. All 3 picks were effectively caused by those guys upfront to this past weekend.

Better at what exactly? Mukuba was MIA versus OU. Didn’t play versus Vandy. Taaffe is a pretty impactful player.

Retard, pussy, whatever. I’ve heard it before. Ive enjoyed his critique of Ewers to point. It has gone past that point however.

You mean like when the UGa CB make the big play in the game? Mostly bring a smartass on this comment. More wideouts, likely more unidentified blitzers however. I don’t have the breakdown but I’m not sure 2 TEs hasn’t been more successful scoring points than more WRs. I do question a bit whether all the transfers have great chemistry with Ewers, could introduce some hesitation.

A bit curious as to why Mukuba got on the Lott list over Taaffe.

Versus MSU our top 2 RBs were at 6+ YPC. Same for OU. Vandy was at 4.7. Wisner at 3.5 versus UGa. The mighty SEC defenses. Imagine how great we’d be versus Big 12. We are winning the next 4. Georgia is anomaly in talent and circumstance. Vandy was a recovery and one game.

I too know what it’s like to wanna whip BurntOrange&Whites ass.

I don’t know the specifics here, but this comp is potentially bogus. Players take themselves out all the time, particularly RBs. So if that was because he was effectively performing that role, it’s a little different than a drop back passer. I wouldn’t expect the Qb to come out for such a reason but context is important. And I can tell you as one who once played QB and ran the ball, shit happens that makes talking in the huddle more difficult.

This is some good stuff. An element of most everybody correct except a little over the top about it. It’s the YouTube effect. Everybody’s an expert now. The truth when watching live you don’t see all the action. People go off that feel, which generally most people are terrible. Then they’re terrible after they’ve reviewed the film when talking relative terms. What is reasonable and what is expected. At the disgust of Hank Hill and @HenryJames, bless his soul, I am going to reference PFF. Pressure rates on QBs vary from a bit under 20% to over 40%. You may have a few outliers on the extremes. So the very best over the course of the season are allowing pressure quite often whether that’s a missed assignment, getting beat, maybe the QB missing the read. That Willisms play Id guess doesn’t even register as a pressure. There’s no clear path to the QB. That happens all day, every day. When talking bigger picture, we are now talking that Ewers can light a defense up but needs protection. That’s true for any QB that ever played. Play makers matter. Same for any QB that ever played. For me, I’m not a traits guy. Many of you are. That’s what Ewers often is. He can sling it and he threw that no look pass once. But it’s consistency of effort that he needs. He led us to wins, a Big 12 championship. All those other bums couldn’t. To compare those environments to this one is not comparable. To compare the talent is not comparable. The experience is not comparable. Sark as OC to his predecessors. Ok. Things like OFEI/DFEI and PFF are doing work for you. They are imperfect, but they tell you things too. And in relative terms for you to compare. Here is what those things have said. Our DFEI ranks higher than OFEI in 2022, 2023, and 2024. Yet the critique of the overall defense last year is less than positive, but you can argue from that metric that our defense was every bit the reason that we won a championship. As to Ewers himself, his grades and metrics relative to his peers shows that he was barely top 20 last year, lowest of the final 4 participants. Below all the first round draft picks. This year he ranks poorly including several horrid grades. The offense last year was absolutely loaded with talent. Like never before at Texas. The NFL draft told you that. Their recruiting profiles told you that. Their combine results showed you some uniqueness. The offensive line may not have been spectacular last year or this, but it’s a very solid unit. The negativity is over the top. We’re right in the thick of it. We’ve seen the most talented team, and we know there are opportunities. But Ewers also gotten too much credit given all of the above. It doesn’t mean he hasn’t had some great throws or games. At a minimum he’s inconsistent and he hasn’t carried the team on his back at the end of games like Vince or Colt or Sam. Even Case pulled the rabbit out of the hat twice.

Yes, the focus on the long ball is only part of the equation. That’s 20 + air yards. We’re not attacking that 10-19 yard range either. Every pass coverage you run has weaknesses and none of them completely shut off 10 yards and beyond. The closest would be man, and it sounds as though Vandy didn’t do that. Not to mention no one has that many good cover guys. Cover 2 sure isn’t taking everything away. Neither is Cover 3. 4/6 whatever. Good play callers know how to work them all. The long pass to Moore versus OU, the TD to Helm versus UM were off schedule plays so a portion of our big plays were not even play calls. If Sark is protecting his QB, that’s fine. I don’t blame him for trying the short stuff versus Vandy, but let’s not act as though 17 straight completions is some amazing feat versus that defense given the nature of those throws. Many a college QB is completing 80-90% of those. We scored so there’s no complaint. The numbers can be parsed however but Wisner has a higher YPC than Baxter did last year. After Brooks went down, it was Baxter/Blue versus Wisner/Blue this year. From a sheer rushing standpoint, that shouldn’t be a significant decrease in production or ability. And for the record, that average depth of target is not low because of Georgia or Vandy, it was sub-7 yards before that game. Think it was 9.4 last year. Pass pro can impact that but again no one was touching Ewers early in the season, and it was down 25%+ from the prior year. All the offense can do better. The defense is good enough. The schedule is favorable enough. Man for man do better.

I’m not attempting to get in a big argument. I’m not advocating for Arch. Everything is front of this team. Ewers can be the QB for a team that wins it all. But this is an example of what he needs to do better. He’s done better. He can do better. He doesn’t need to climb the pocket. Anticipate, stand and deliver. Bolden is open out of the break. Maybe we need less play action. Maybe we need more reps together. We aren’t making enough of these plays whomever is at fault.

Quick search using 20% of snaps as a qualifier, 9 QBs have a 90+ grade. 1 Olineman. So five times as many linemen on any given play.

I use it for context. Context says grade QBs against QBs not relative to other positions. For example Gunnar often has poor scores likely because of his blocking which may often be against DEs. QBs don’t have to run the play correctly and beat their man like other positions.