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956 Worldwide

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Everything posted by 956 Worldwide

  1. No, I’m not. You’re disliking the math. A better way to look at this: its T+2. Do you want the worst case to be grabbing the 4th SEC slot or the 5th one? Because if Georgia loses and then you beat them, you can lose to A&M and you are still no worse than 4th in based on H2H. If Georgia wins, and you beat them but lose to A&M, then you are hoping that the committee elevates you at 9-3 over a 10-2 UGA. I am assuming the favorites win. That’s not going to happen, but that doesn’t mean it’s smart to bet against it happening in any given contest. I cannot emphasize enough that you want to pass teams that are currently in front of you in any way you can. You can do that by having UGA lose games. The committee ranks teams, not conferences.
  2. No, you want Georgia to lose. Georgia is ahead of you in the rankings, and you will play them. You have a path to eliminate a competitor. If they have another loss, you can knock them out from contention by winning. There are more paths available to you if they lose and that outweighs the bonus points you get if they are ranked above you if they win. You would get a quality win regardless and you’d pull ahead in a tiebreaker if you both end up 9-3. If they lose and then beat you, then it’s no difference than if they win and beat you: they will be considered before you for the CFP. Always look for the scenario that gives you the most pathways ahead. And don’t overvalue the “best possible” scenario (beating a highly ranked Georgia). That doesn’t outweigh the upside of just knocking them out of contention for a spot you want. This discussion is real time evidence for never gambling on sports if you have a rooting interest.
  3. Virginia is by far the best barometer to look at from the places that voted. My sole hesitation is how you measure the effect of mass layoffs, contractor job losses, and overall anger in the NCR and project that out to states less affected by federal government actions. Likely same trend but not as stark. I think it’s pretty axiomatic that Trump overperforms when he’s on the ballot and GOP underperforms when he’s not. Bodes well for 2028. They admitted as much with the gereymandering ploy.
  4. Anastasis getting upset because a poster came in with inscrutable, vaguely accusatory personal questions orthogonal to the discussions at hand.
  5. 25 years is pretty much the average for a cargo plane. Passenger airlines will offload before to a cargo company or overseas budget carrier not because the airplane isn’t safe— just that the needed maintenance, plus cabin overhaul to meet passenger standards, plus savings on more efficient newer models means that hanging on isn’t worth it. @Bobby_Batronic explained a lot about the stressors on critical components and the long life of turbines due to design. Airplanes don’t age like cars, the prescribed obsessive maintenance and the scheduled complete tear-down/rebuilds mean that for the most part you can safely fly an airplane for as long as you want to throw money at it. The USAF intends to keep B-52s in service for about a century of use. (Also a plane that flys lots of long hours as opposed to quick hops). The key here is “if the maintenance is done and money thrown at it.” Usually you can trust major carriers and developed countries to do that.
  6. I think the lesson not to schedule a good OOC opponent isn’t really reflecting in the committee’s work. That could change with 9 SEC games. Bama is the highest ranked one loss team, and they have arguably the worst loss. But their run against good opponents got rewarded. The committee explained as much. The committee was more than willing to put three two loss teams above multiple one loss teams. They aren’t harshly punishing ND or Texas or Bama for those early season losses. They rewarded the H2H vs OU. The deciding factor was likely the Florida-Kentucky-Miss State games vs Notre Dame. And on the flip side, winning those good early games brings rewards that aren’t being factored into the decision making. On balance, winning probably helps cement your place more than losing dings you. I also think the committee got a lot nerdier on stats that they’d have at their fingertips.
  7. Ok. Is the argument that Bama, Ole Miss, and UGA should be replaced with Utah, Georgia Tech, and Louisville?
  8. Figuratively and literally. If ND doesn’t ever lose, they are almost always gonna be the national champ. Also true for every team, literally, in the CFP era.
  9. Accurate, that is the post I clarified. Most of us on this forum have discussions, ask questions, clarify, and maybe find a meme or two. I realize that is less engaging than lurking at the bar long after colleagues have left the happy hour to look for openings to threadshit. You won your one person game, good job.
  10. The thing that needs ryto to be taken into account is that SEC and BIG teams this year aren’t playing for top 12. They’re playing for top 10.
  11. This is what I posted on the DT on this topic: You’re not interesting or clever. You spoil every thread you post on outside the Food Forum. You’re so contrarian and broken that you can’t begin to have a coherent discussion, it’s just endlessly playing the same shit that you think is somehow enlightening.
  12. There’s a chance but it’s not at all a good one.A 9-3 Texas is likely around 11-12 in the rankings. If the ACC and best G5 champ are behind you, Texas gets bumped. Put it this way: You have, right now, a bit better than even odds to make the CFP. Those odds factor in 10-2 pathways. If you take away the 10-2 pathways, the odds slump well below .500.
  13. *Anastasis* why did they do that, are they not getting paid or something. I’m posting in a shut down thread and know things *anastasis*
  14. Is this bit or are you just this dumb? Every civilian in the federal government except for some LEOs have missed at least one paycheck. The NTSB team that will be deployed hasn’t been paid since the first week of October.
  15. It’s healthy for the sport. If you functionally exclude more than half the teams from hoping to get in the CFP you harm its viability long term. You also aren’t really impacting the final outcome integrity. The 5th SEC or BIG team is very unlikely to win it all, there’s usually a clear gap. This is entirely predictable and not unique; every year some good MBB teams aren’t in March Madness in favor of some hapless midmajors.
  16. Let’s see what the NTSB investigation says, I wonder if several missed checks might have any impact on the people doing it.
  17. That’s the rules.
  18. Initial bracket
  19. This is the key. If there isn’t an ACC and G5 team in the top ten: then ten and eleven are out.
  20. Posting this here too. Directly relevant to rankings and where teams should be relative to rankings. Really like this graph: wins above expectation based on post-game probability. Probably as close as can be to “are you as good as your record.” Ideally you want to be dead-center and undefeated. That means you are winning because you’re consistently playing winning football. The further away you get, you begin seeing the impact of bad/good luck and opponents blowing games, and maybe coaching idiocy. A few interesting things: voters are right to be cautious of GT and UVa, but add BYU in there too. Not to say luck can never last (it does) but they’ve already had a lot. Likewise, the belief that Tenn is better than their record is somewhat justified. Mizzou and Miami too, for that matter. UT and A&M are slightly above expectation but not tremendously so. Most years, some good bounces separate great from good from average seasons. Scary for everyone: OSU’s great record appears entirely earned and justified.
  21. Really like this graph: wins above expectation based on post-game probability. Probably as close as can be to “are you as good as your record.” Ideally you want to be dead-center and undefeated. That means you are winning because you’re consistently playing winning football. The further away you get, you begin seeing the impact of bad/good luck and opponents blowing games, and maybe coaching idiocy. A few interesting things: voters are right to be cautious of GT and UVa, but add BYU in there too. Not to say luck can never last (it does) but they’ve already had a lot. Likewise, the belief that Tenn is better than their record is somewhat justified. Mizzou and Miami too, for that matter. UT and A&M are slightly above expectation but not tremendously so. Most years, some good bounces separate great from good from average seasons. Scary for everyone: OSU’s great record appears entirely earned and justified.
  22. This is legitimately radicalizing to me. It’s just delivering bad governance so that buddies can profit off the failure. And it’s directed at anyone who pays taxes, just a “fuck you, we want to make money off you coming and going.” You can’t even pretend about the national interest or constituents here. And on the flip side, there were four years to direct— with no excuses— the IRS to roll out direct file. For everyone, everywhere. No years long pilots and phases and shit. Truly emblematic of the collapse of American governance into right-wing grifting and effete, process-centric consensus building exercises.
  23. To clarify— I don’t think it’s an ATC problem. The fallout will be general jitters, demands to do crazy things like pay the NTSB that responds, etc. It’s a little jolt of “the government does things you need.”
  24. I’ve told some people in person that it might take a plane crash to reopen government. Tracking the fallout from this.
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