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Everything posted by 956 Worldwide
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Could this be the craziest coaching carousel of all time?
956 Worldwide replied to GreenspointTexas's topic in Football
James Franklin currently has a top 25 class at VaTech and PSU signed one recruit. -
I mean this is kind of semantics though because the committee is pretty opaque about what metrics are most important. In the rankings as released Texas is located in the middle of a bunch of 10-2 and 11-1 teams so the refrain “only the loss column matters” is false: Texas is ranked higher than teams with fewer losses and so by definition there is more going on.
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None of this can be “proven or disproven” but there are a few pieces of evidence and facts. Hypothetical: Texas played and convincingly beat a middling G5 or bad P4 team in week one instead of losing to OSU. Let’s use . . . 7-5 CUSA LaTech as a stand-in. - FACT: Texas is the lone three loss team in the top 15 of these rankings. Functionally, they are being treated like a two loss team. - FACT: Bama, OU, ND, Miami, Vandy are all jostling as two loss teams for a spot. That’s Texas’ current competition as a three loss team. - FACT: A two loss team or three loss Texas needs to be ranked 10 or higher to get in. The last two slots are going to be G5/ACC champ or G5. - FACT: The committee has no issue looking beyond H2H for these rankings, although it’s not guaranteed they will. - Justified conjecture: The committee is not going to give the SEC 6/12 slots in the CFP absent an extremely odd and compelling circumstance. Texas is in a spot with UGA, OM, Bama, OU, A&M, and Vandy and two are getting left out. Less justified conjecture: think the committee looks barely considers OOO wins against inferior comp. A loss will hurt but winning certainly gives you no credit. So let’s presume an identical record and a 42-10 win over LaTech in place of the tOSU loss. In fact, some teams have pretty compelling cases to still be ahead of Texas right now. - Bama finished above Texas in the SEC standings. The record against common opponents is identical (2-1) and Bama’s win over UGA is the strongest. ‘Bama’s loss to FSU came week zero and not midseason. FSU slumped but they had a talented roster, and UT played LaTech that week. It is very easy to give them the nod based on conference standings. - OU has a weaker case but they still have one. They certainly get to point to an early W against Michigan as more valuable than a win against LaTech. They have no loss against an unranked team. They have a road win against Bama as strong as Texas’ versus A&M. Texas has the Vandy win and the H2H. This is a hypothetical, maybe the H2H carries the day, maybe it doesn’t. It’s in no way “proven” either way. - Vandy: Texas would for sure be above Vandy. But Texas is already above Vandy. Scheduling LaTech gets you nothing. -ND: You say a 10-2 Texas with a loss to Florida and win vs G5 is ranked above ND. I say: if it comes down to ND vs. a sixth SEC team, the smart money bets ND. The case is not near as clear-cut as people are making it out to be. It basically hinges on the committee choosing to reward H2H vs OU abd that is not at all a sure proposition.
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LOL, letting AI do this is basically giving the decision making power to message boards with an extra step involved.
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Yeah, that was totally my dumbness. But— tolerance for crazy and difficult in a woman plunges quickly as she approaches 40, especially if it’s not directed at a pre-existing partner with obligations. You can’t be 39 and bringing 27 year old drama to a man with options.
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This guy is heading into his 40s single, a partner at law firm, rich enough to fund destination weddings and expensive mental treatment, and public receipts of supporting a difficult ex. And he seems pretty tall. He is about to clean up if he wants to. She is flying into late 40s with a public history of abrasiveness, airing of mental illness in the NYT and a high-stress spotlight job that led to a breakdown and then blowing up her marriage. It’s about to get much worse for her. Lots of nerdy dudes sell themselves at the dip in their twenties cause they don’t have the patience to get into their 30s. This is a windfall, best-case scenario for him.
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She is not near hot enough for this level. Lulz at paying for inpatient mental health treatment so she can get well and realize she doesn’t like you.
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Thing$ $till not going well for Joe Rogan, I $ee.
956 Worldwide replied to Parliament's topic in Cloak Room
More and more medieval peasant brain energy. Many such cases. -
Could this be the craziest coaching carousel of all time?
956 Worldwide replied to GreenspointTexas's topic in Football
Lulz -
People are reinventing the PAC, WAC, SWC, Big 8, and Big East conferences from first principles and I gotta say I’m here for it.
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Could this be the craziest coaching carousel of all time?
956 Worldwide replied to GreenspointTexas's topic in Football
If we are talking an actual sane person it’s not, and by most accounts Chris Klieman is. People scrimp and hustle with the aim to enjoy good years in retirement and do so with much less in the bank. “I am 58 years old and made between 3-5 million each year over the past six. Realistically, I am not going to win a national championship. I can leave now with the goodwill of thousands of people. I will never run out of money, my kids and grandkids might never run out of money if I am smart. I’m healthy and I’m going to go enjoy myself and all this money. And never think about what 19 year old defensive backs are up to at all hours of the day and never again say “this loss was on me” at a press conference after my 20 year old QB threw into double coverage instead of the check down I drilled with him 200 times.” I will 100 percent die on a hill that this thought process is the sanest of anyone involved in CFB this year. And Klein is a great hire for them and I’ll be sad to see him leave. He is a bit of seasoning away from being a real genius. -
Texas fans, before going all in on “shitty OOC schedules are the way,” take a beat and note that a 10-2 SEC (Vandy) team is almost certain to miss the CFP this year, and a second one (Bama) still might. As of now, you’re ahead of Vandy to sneak in. There’s really no way around an unbalanced super league occasionally producing a jumble of teams with 1-2 losses in conference play and the SEC is simply not going to get half or more of the field. All you are doing is guaranteeing yourself a shitty slate of games in exchange for a perceived benefit that might not exist at all. There’s not a lot of hard evidence that the OSU loss is really hurting Texas here and quite a bit of counter evidence that it isn’t. And on the flip slide: winning that game would have placed you as the safest 2 loss team in the field.
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This is a real tweet from the Miss Highway Patrol. College football fucking rules.
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Could this be the craziest coaching carousel of all time?
956 Worldwide replied to GreenspointTexas's topic in Football
lol, the way they describe it makes it seem like Heupel sat down and wrote a dickish email to the PSU AD after interviewing. In fact, he’s just offering some quotes to the UT faithful to sooth hurt feelings. He didn’t write Pat Kraft and say “I’ll pass cause your expectations are too low.” I can’t say enough how dumb sports journalism is, especially the closer you get to school-focused outlets like the On3 stringer. -
I’ll tell you with a straight face as an Aggie fan that I’d rather catch Bama than ND again. DeBoer teams plod at times, get unfocused, and are capable of just not showing up against lesser opponents. ND is slightly less talented but Freeman is simply better at getting them ready for high-stakes games. Those two teams are on opposite trajectories late in the season.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
956 Worldwide replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Counterpoint just bring back the BCS. This year the winner of tOSU-IU would most likely face either UGA or Tech. Or with real chaos maybe Ole Miss or Bama. Anyone could live with that even if not perfect. Everyone else has fun at their NY6 game. Much more satisfying than squabbling over which 10-15 ranked teams that almost certainly won’t win anyway need to be in a playoff. NY6 games were fun and prestigious and most times the BCS got the matchup or at least the eventual winner correct (LOL not you Auburn). -
There’s a lot of wriggle room in “won’t punish teams for playing in the CCG.” Under strictly legalistic terms, you’d say “no team should slide even one slot no matter the result of a CCG.” But that seems fairly stupid and by that reading Ohio State-Indiana has no meaning whatsoever save the conference trophy. A less legalistic reading might be “if you were in the field before the game, losing won’t make you drop out.” (Which explains more of Bama’s rise than the bullshit “we did it cuz we felt like it.”) But even that hardly seems sustainable long term.
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lol at this one. I mean yes, that’s clearly what the committee thought because that’s what they did. But it’s a long fucking way from an explanation. “We felt that was enough. Because….metric?”
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Lots of head scratchers here for me and questions. - I saw nothing on the field that would justify swapping Bama ahead of ND. Not that this is wrong, but last week ND was ahead and this week they are behind despite a tepid Bama game against Auburn and a typical ND blowout of Stanford. I have to think they are leaving some cushion to keep Bama in but drop them after a close CCG loss. - Moving Ole Miss up after losing their HC and some staff is a surprise. I almost think they just didn’t want to face the media firestorm if they dropped them. - How far realistically can IU fall if they get blown out by OSU. That’s entirely possible. It seems impossible to drop them past Oregon but….how do you not given their pretty weak SOS and SOR compared to SEC 1 loss teams. I think the committee really is hoping on a close game there. - How far can you drop Tech if they lose? I’d guess at least past the other one loss teams, but then does BYU vault all the way ahead? I think that BYU is out though. - Surprising to see two rematches in the first round. Of course one way or another Bama moves. But that could have been solved by simply keeping ND and Bama in the same order as last week. Goes back to my idea that they REALLY want a way to leave Bama in and now they have more cushion to drop them past ND and maybe even an ACC rep.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
956 Worldwide replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I admittedly don’t bet on this but I think it’s more likely it’s SOP to shut it down a set time before the rankings start getting released. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
956 Worldwide replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
I agree, and at the same time a 16 seed will never win March Madness or likely even get to a FF. But we really like the fun of giving them a shot and no one wíll argue their presence makes that tourney worse. We go nuts when they win just one. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
956 Worldwide replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Here is how to read it. And I caution you at using betting odds as a proxy for probability when it comes to something like the CFP committee decision. Remember: they want to balance books. A (-) implies favorite. A common very slight favorite is -110. You must bet 110 dollars to win 100. Your total payout would be 210: Your original 110 back plus 100. A slight dog would be +110. You bet 100 to win 110. Your payout is 210: Original 100 plus 110. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
956 Worldwide replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
A bookie wants the money to be even on both sides of a bet. They don’t make money by picking winners. They make money via the fee (vig) for placing a bet. Ideally, half of their customers bet one way and half another way and they collect their fees. They want long term income and not big payday. When too much money comes in on one outcome, they will lower the odds for the popular bet and increase the odds for the less popular to attract more money there and balance the books. Vegas wants more people betting on UT to miss the playoff, so it’s increasing the payout for betting that way. -
Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
956 Worldwide replied to Wulaw Horn's topic in Football
Boise/OU, Utah/Bama, NIU/ND…I mean this happens all the time and it’s great when it does. It is harder in the transfer/NIL era, and enforced G5 apartheid makes it worse. The transfer rule is another parity and excitement killing development.
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