None of us really know how to do COIN it turns out, despite however many gallons of ink we have spilled. These groups can’t be destroyed but can be eroded down to be less existential. The problem is that everyone has to do something they don’t want to do and have strong stomachs:
- Israel has to show a real commitment to a permanent solution that involves a state for Palestinians and an end to West Bank settlements.
- The “international community” needs to ruthlessly limit what they do for Gaza— nothing beyond the absolute minimum to avoid famine and plague— until at a minimum Hamas agrees to hold elections, disarm, and renounce aims to destroy Israel. At the same time, reward better actors in WB. The humanitarian complex is toxic where terror groups dominate, outsiders provide services and jobs and completely relieve any pressure on groups like Hamas or Hezbollah to govern beyond planning attacks.
- Some multinational force with the authority to disarm and destroy hold-out cells has to be created to maintain security in Gaza and maybe Southern Lebanon. Peacekeepers won’t do, it has to be seek and destroy for terrorists and security for locals.
- The U.S. and Arab nations have to be wiling to bite hard when malign actors like Iran look to arm proxies, preventing weapons shipments up to and including kinetic actions on ships and airplanes. And there has to be a complete strangulation on anyone financing these groups. And there needs to be real political costs to Israel if they refuse to play along on point one.
None of this will happen because there is significant inertia to just keep having war or punting the ball as opposed to taking any of these difficult actions.