None of this can be “proven or disproven” but there are a few pieces of evidence and facts.
Hypothetical: Texas played and convincingly beat a middling G5 or bad P4 team in week one instead of losing to OSU. Let’s use . . . 7-5 CUSA LaTech as a stand-in.
- FACT: Texas is the lone three loss team in the top 15 of these rankings. Functionally, they are being treated like a two loss team.
- FACT: Bama, OU, ND, Miami, Vandy are all jostling as two loss teams for a spot. That’s Texas’ current competition as a three loss team.
- FACT: A two loss team or three loss Texas needs to be ranked 10 or higher to get in. The last two slots are going to be G5/ACC champ or G5.
- FACT: The committee has no issue looking beyond H2H for these rankings, although it’s not guaranteed they will.
- Justified conjecture: The committee is not going to give the SEC 6/12 slots in the CFP absent an extremely odd and compelling circumstance. Texas is in a spot with UGA, OM, Bama, OU, A&M, and Vandy and two are getting left out.
Less justified conjecture: think the committee looks barely considers OOO wins against inferior comp. A loss will hurt but winning certainly gives you no credit.
So let’s presume an identical record and a 42-10 win over LaTech in place of the tOSU loss. In fact, some teams have pretty compelling cases to still be ahead of Texas right now.
- Bama finished above Texas in the SEC standings. The record against common opponents is identical (2-1) and Bama’s win over UGA is the strongest. ‘Bama’s loss to FSU came week zero and not midseason. FSU slumped but they had a talented roster, and UT played LaTech that week. It is very easy to give them the nod based on conference standings.
- OU has a weaker case but they still have one. They certainly get to point to an early W against Michigan as more valuable than a win against LaTech. They have no loss against an unranked team. They have a road win against Bama as strong as Texas’ versus A&M. Texas has the Vandy win and the H2H. This is a hypothetical, maybe the H2H carries the day, maybe it doesn’t. It’s in no way “proven” either way.
- Vandy: Texas would for sure be above Vandy. But Texas is already above Vandy. Scheduling LaTech gets you nothing.
-ND: You say a 10-2 Texas with a loss to Florida and win vs G5 is ranked above ND. I say: if it comes down to ND vs. a sixth SEC team, the smart money bets ND.
The case is not near as clear-cut as people are making it out to be. It basically hinges on the committee choosing to reward H2H vs OU abd that is not at all a sure proposition.