
LCHorn
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This has been all over the leftist web and podcast-verse for the past couple of weeks. The idea is that even if Trump is too stupid to have a master plan, the people behind him do, or at least want some people to think that they do. I think the truth is closer to the Hegseth texts and whenever the Silicon Valley mafia have their texts leaked. It’s a lot of locker room talk and everyone is surprisingly dumb outside of their core area of expertise.
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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread
LCHorn replied to UTPhil2006's topic in Business and Markets
I can’t recall if I’ve repeated this story upthread, but I’ve heard from some of the community banks we work with that they are strapped for cash because small builders can’t move inventory (and payoff their construction loans). Judging by stock value, the big guys appear fine or their typical incentive shenanigans have obscured their current performance. -
One thing I’ll add is playing Smith over Dezenzo might be a good sign of talent management. This is more pre-Luhnow, but previous Astros leadership would have first tried to see what the more experienced player could do. We’d see Dezenzo get 400 slightly below replacement level AB’s in right and be mostly happy because Chas would be the alternative. Maybe we lose 4 WAR (over Tucker) and we’re wondering why we lose the division by a game or two and blame Myers or Altuve for not exceeding projections. Instead, Brown is being aggressive and playing the guy whose 50th percentile outcome might not exceed Dezenzo’s, but if he can better that we have a real shot of replacing Tucker’s offense.
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I think it’s more that our outfield is pretty uninspiring and they appear to prefer spending rookie at bats on developing Smith over Dezenzo. I’m in wait and see mode on Altuve, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Yordan is getting most of the LF starts by the all-star break and Altuve divides his time between 2nd and DH.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2026: They Can't Keep Getting Away With This
LCHorn replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
That’s my read on it. Turntine is a little wary of a three tackle class, particularly if one or two of the others are a little closer to their college play weight. -
That’s a part of it, but Harris lost Biden voters in pretty much all categories beside highly educated urbanites. I wouldn’t use the total impotence of the Texas Dems as emblematic of the national party. That said, there’s a sincere concern that the brand is so bad in places like Tyler or Midland that you’re going to lose even if you turn out any voters remotely willing to vote D. Anyway, back to hopium, the upside of the Biden-Trump swing voters is they already like a lot of what the Dems stand for, they just trust them to fix anything.
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And hence Beshear trying to stay right of the image AOC has cultivated.
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I know it’s somewhat mystifying to anyone posting here and who consumes a lot of political news, but there’s some good 2024 election autopsy work (for example, David Shor on Ezra Klein’s podcast last week) that an astute candidate would be wise to begin with. In short, if the Dems are smart, they’ll want a candidate that best positions himself as appealing to voters who switched. They didn’t switch because they are MAGA, they switched because Biden/Harris* either failed to deliver on improving their lives or couldn’t sell it. *To Harris’ credit, I think she knew this but couldn’t escape the Biden undertow and also, like everyone in DC, underestimated Trump‘s appeal to the poorly informed.
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I haven’t listened to it (I’m kind of checked on an Obama-esque interpretation of the world), but whoever the Dems run needs to be capable of pulling in the Biden voters who switched to Trump. I’m not sure that portraying oneself as a firebrand revolutionary 3 years early is strategically sound.
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Austin Fine Dining - Anniversary Dinner recs
LCHorn replied to Bevo in VA's topic in Food and Travel
Peche, with the great happy hour? I bet you can squeeze 100+ in there. -
I think (and this is for @UpperWestside), that a Dem party reliant on the AA vote for winning majorities is not in a position to run a homosexual in an election where those can’t be sacrificed. That particularly group, when surveyed, is very conservative when it comes to matters of gender rights. But who knows, in the future maybe Trump or his successor continues to carve out young AA, particularly males, and that becomes less of a core constituency for the Dems.
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Austin Fine Dining - Anniversary Dinner recs
LCHorn replied to Bevo in VA's topic in Food and Travel
Waiting for @HenryJames to point out that Hopfields has reservations for two available Saturday…. June‘s All Day looks like they have a 8 pm. It might be a little more casual than what you’re looking for but it’s fun and typically a little bit of a light party atmosphere. On Resy, Lenoir has 7 and 7:30 at the bar. -
The most likely support is with tax credits and I’m very skeptical there’s consensus support for that in the House. Reps like Massie and our very own Chip Roy also appear sufficiently ideological that the transactional give and take of lawmaking is going to be, best case, slow. It’s not that it can’t be done, it’s that it’s going to be subordinate to a tax cut, which will likely require wringing every bit of outstanding political capital before 2026 campaigning begins. Moreover, the tax cut it’s likely going to be unpopular (like the last one was). None of this is particularly hard for the investor to imagine. So what’s the magical thinking that supports 100+ price/earnings? Patents? The Mar-a-Lago accords? I’m a little surprised the whole market isn’t piling into shorts because narratively it just seems to follow the historical pattern of a founder/CEO thinking they are special and not lucky.
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Not to entirely change the subject, but what’s the argument against shorting TSLA? That investors have already baked in potential revenue loss from fleeing US/Euro buyers?
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I will happily take Lamar and 40 traffic lights to avoid 35.
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