LCHorn

Also on the Pod Save America ep from this am, they discussed the Times/Sienna poll and mentioned that 85% of those polled believed that a Trump victory would be better for men. Obviously that’s a majority of respondents from both genders.

I actually was thinking about both of those scenes when I trying to articulate what didn’t work. I see what they were trying to do-those are the bridge to the fantastical elements in the third act. I think there’s something about the way they were shot, particularly the fight club, that was too just too much. Maybe it’s over saturation of colors, maybe it’s CGI, I just know it didn’t work for me. It’s like two different movies between the first half and the second. If I was script doctoring I’d say “start with a scene that shows off the fantastical elements so that the audience is prepared for it later.”, which obviously they did and it still doesn’t work for me.

I was just listening to the Pod Save America guys from this morning and one of them made the point that that Trump’s ceiling is his floor. Kamala has energized 9/10 of the Biden 2020 voters-the debate is chance for the last tenth. I’m hopeful that’s an oversimplification because I would think new voters replacing olds would have resulted in a stronger starting advantage for a Dem.

Hot take-the best part of Shang Chi was Simu and Awkwafina being stupid at the beginning. Everything after grew more and more untethered from the real world, which deprived the climax from there being any real stakes.

James Earl Jones

I swear I’ve heard that voice before…

I thought this NY Times comment was remarkably spot on:

Lina Hidalgo is going to whup his ass in 2030, mark it down.

She has to include them for rhetorical purposes because our nation clearly doesn't give a shit about teacher compensation.

Hey! I had three classes with Daron Shaw.

I don’t either, but I also think pollster methodology has over corrected after the 2016 surprise and they are exaggerating Trump support.

It was probably my secret crush Annie Lowery in The Atlantic that I saw this, but a conservative, in good-faith policy towards child care costs might be something like paying mothers a UBI or a child stipend. Her point (if I’m attributing it correctly) was that household labor and child-rearing is just something our economic measures fail to capture; it clearly offers huge value because we can gauge it off what third party providers charge. This would, of course, be very in keeping with a conservative, family values first campaign that no one will really run on because the GOP donor class care only about tax cuts and fucking over brown people.

I think Framber is the clear luxury item among the three. If Bregman would take Chapman’s deal I think the Astros would do it.

Jesus Christ, just saw the score. Usually when your pitcher gets hit like that they go on the DL for something.

Damn, flashbacks. Over time I had forgotten just how nuts she was.

If that’s true it’s because there are zero residuals and everyone in the production has figured out they have to be paid upfront.

Cunt is a little strong, no? It’s not like she’s running for governor of Arkansas.

Haha, 90% of Fox viewers don’t understand cringe or simply lack the experience with shame to understand the alleged criticism.

No way, keep it in the fam…

Plus, I bet Tolkien publishes another book before GRRM does.

I'm going to pick some nits with this, but I don't personally feel comfortable making market predictions using historical norms as my basis, particularly for the technology companies and their employees. That said, let me play devil's advocate. The fact that central Texas (and the state) has made commitments to manufacturing might mean that even a short national recession doesn't significantly impact local employment (in other words, the momentum to staff up these facilities and the smaller firms supplying them will continue to generate new jobs). Obviously most of this is east of Austin so it's not helping Lakeway homeowner's sell the Lake Travis living experience. I'm not entirely sure of your point in regards to rental cash flow. Are you saying that new investment buyers in this market aren't cash-flowing? Pretty much all of the investment portfolios I've reviewed in which the purchase was made pre-'21 are cash-flowing, sometimes a lot. As far as price drops, I'm just not seeing it in anything under $400K and I think there's sufficient demand from owner-occupants in the $400K-$600K range that prices have been sticky. Anything more expensive than that purchased for pure investment has been mostly confined to short-term rentals.

I don’t think it’s a complete red herring, but soaking the rich polls well, regardless of party ID. I wonder if it might be the Dems “pro-life”-like policy, in that it helps energize their base but will damn them if it ever comes to pass (as the largest of their socially sympathetic financiers flee out of economic self-interest). Personally, I don’t really care what Harris wants to run on as long as it’s popular and maybe gives her some coattails to ride. Nobody is giving the Democrats a pass, unfortunately, when a recalcitrant body in the law-making process prevents bills popular with a significant majority from becoming law. Creating durable majorities in Congress means they actually need to do something.

Beto was on the attack plenty. If the supporters of Cruz or Trump were capable of being embarrassed into not voting we’d see that strategy employed successfully. I know we don’t like to admit it, but Beto ran into the fact that there’s just more GOP voters than there are Dems in Texas. Nate Silver talked about this in regards to Jaime Harrison in the 2020 South Carolina Senate race. There was a poll taken that showed Harrison down by 2 points to Lindsay Graham, 46-44 (if I recall correctly), and Silver pointed out that 44% of the voters self-identified as Democrats and that was a great showing on Harrison’s part (in other words, he had obtained the support of pretty much every South Carolina voters who would be willing to vote for him). That missing 10% wasn’t truly independent, they were Republicans who didn’t like Lindsay Graham but were still going to vote for him against Harrison when it counted. I would be shocked if the same misunderstanding of the polling data by the media wasn’t happening here. We already know that Allred has run a shit campaign-do we really think voters are coming around to him and they’ve only recently discovered a distaste for Ted Cruz?

I don’t really see where Kinzinger has a home right now that’s not the Democratic Party. He’s going to be toxic to the right well after Trump is dead and gone.

My reaction is that any validity her argument might have is entirely undermined by a masterbatory series of tweets published on a platform unbefitting of the effort or sincerity of intent. That said, I bet she feels triumphant after all of that so good for her, I guess.