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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. #1, I don’t think more money helps Trump anyway. His cake is baked (you said it on another post and I’ve read it elsewhere-his ceiling is his floor). #2, the Trump campaign is comparatively small with fewer satellite offices; they pretty have to spend their money on traditional and digital advertising because they aren’t set up to pivot elsewhere. I’m sure this is over-reading into it, but I’d presume there’s some realistic reasons to spend in Florida (defend abortion rights) and maybe subordinate but also satisfying reasons (Mar-A-Lago tv’s running pro-Dem ads, maybe trying to shape now what a post-DeSantis Florida looks like).
  2. That’s a little pessimistic. Analytics minded folks would say there’s a spectrum of outcomes and the MLB playoffs aren’t designed to produce the best team. Let’s not forget the run the Rangers went on just last year and the fact the 2019 Astros were the best team in baseball (and it wasn’t close) and still lost because Steven Strasburg’s neck survived one season too long and Howie Kendrick got lucky.
  3. I remember when the Hillary Clinton campaign was thinking it could add in a few battleground states, too. That said, she needs to be spend her money somewhere and it appears no one wants to bank it and use it discreetly to take over the Texas Democratic Party.
  4. Maybe he’s an exception, but when I see 6’6’’, 250 and from Jasper I want to predict a position change once he gets into a college strength and conditioning program. He may end up great but that’s a luxury take if he’s committed elsewhere and needs NIL promises to turn his head.
  5. Agree on this-I’ve talked about this before but I’ve been told UT still has a mixed reputation in some corners of the African American community (mainly urban Dallas and Houston to a smaller degree). It might be that first generation kids don’t have the same inherited baggage, or maybe African parents are indifferent to everything but current academic rankings. Additionally helpful is that there are first-gen African descent kids on campus for pure academics and it’s not a token presence. Either way, there’s quite a few success stories to tout if you’re trying to sell the school.
  6. Also, one more thing--the make-up and prosthetics on Farrell are superb. I don't think I've ever seen someone basically wearing a mask but able to emote and move their face as much as I'm seeing here.
  7. So I finally caught this on Hulu after reading about it here and periodically over the last year. I was a little disappointed and it was not atypical of the weirdness I see in lower budget foreign produced horror films. Plot holes, characters that behave in unfamiliar ways, plot that demands that the characters are oblivious in order to set up conflict. The best “oh shit” moment I won’t spoil and involves a dog, but I’m afraid everything after was underwhelming.
  8. Didn’t we already have a top 5 recruiting class for ‘25 or did that dematerialize after the Pierce firing?
  9. I’m enjoying the fact that they aren’t trying to portray him as some mastermind, which would be dramatically inert. He’s ruthless but only one step ahead. They did do a great job (having someone with Farrell’s charisma does a lot of the heavy lifting) of making the audience root for a villain. Also, in for Cristin Milioti. She’s always fantastic and this looks like a great role for her.
  10. At some point Cameron Rising has to run out of eligibility…
  11. I don’t think that’s anything exceptional about Texas (or the US, for that matter-that kind of shit is getting play in campaigns across the western world). Frankly, I’d rather Cruz be running those ads than one promising a tax cut under a Trump presidency more appealing to the “hold your nose and vote R” voter. This is almost 40 year old Liberty County gossip, but top center’s Dad was rumored to have left his family for a gay relationship (back then the whispers would have added “in Houston no less!”, as it was commonly presumed Houston was a place of permissive immorality).
  12. He said by the industry. The fact that 20th Century Fox didn't adapt all of the Aubrey/Maturin novels after absolutely nailing the casting and terrific work by Weir is unfortunate.
  13. Eh, there’s got to be stature of limitations on blame. Why not blame the Ottomans for resettling thousands of Jews in the Levant after their expulsion from Spain? Or maybe the medieval Arabs for establishing a culture of religious tolerance picked up by the Ottomans that allowed the Jews the right to practice their own religion rather than assimilate (as the Spanish required)?
  14. Valid question but probably not, at this point. Politico ran a piece a few days ago about the Montana Senate race and ad buys are in the can and more money/outreach isn’t going to persuade someone voting against the incumbent. That’s also why the forecasters are so bearish on that one-Tester is going down unless Harris has bigger than expected coattails. Anyway, you could spend it in Michigan but they have a good Dem running and plenty of party infrastructure. Brown in Ohio will run ahead of Harris and is a good fundraiser already. Basically, if you have money it’s spend it on Texas or Florida. Both will most likely lose but the donor network in Texas probably contributes more nationally so letting them see it get spent at home helps future fundraising efforts.
  15. Counterpoint-she was hot. This is why we can’t trust retired Army candidates. At least retired USMC officers know chasing thicc Latinas is asking for trouble.
  16. Yikes!
  17. Ya’ll keep talking fingers and I don’t want to go back through the thread-whose fingers and what’s the issue with them?
  18. As a middle-aged adult birthdays kind of suck. Maybe use the day as an excuse to take a break from whatever your routine might be. Go watch a matinee like Don Draper or swim laps at Deep Eddy (I have NEVER not felt emotionally recharged after swimming laps there and then warming myself in the sun). Eat a snow cone, look for something weird at the book store or go walk around campus, explore a nook that might have changed or spend a little time in the Blanton. Make yourself smile and give a big "good afternoon" or "hi!" to everyone you see (most people will be a little puzzled but they'll return the greeting AND be a bit lighter for it). If you have work commitments call in sick, which is usually a good reminder that the world still turns even if we check out for a day. Of course, if all of that is in your routine already then do something else entirely 😉
  19. You can’t really time the market unless your choice is to get a loan in 2025 versus 2026. There’s going to be additional rate cuts, and we can be fairly positive about the overall direction, but that’s not the kind prediction that works in a smaller time frame. You can always refinance later if the market accommodates it.
  20. ARM’s on conventional loans haven’t offered pricing discounts since 2007.
  21. I give Habib a lot of shit but I’m listening to his podcast with Tim Braheem and he called the 50.
  22. Plus forecasting another 100 bps over 2025.
  23. Wow! Now we can breathe again.
  24. I don’t think they will fall off a cliff but I predict they lose some commits once NIL deals are getting firmed up.
  25. It’s in keeping with King’s trope of places themselves being evil acting as a conduit for other supernatural entities.
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