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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. Same, I never would have thought “As goes Gossett, goes Tarrytown.” I don’t want to say this out loud and wish it into existence, but I do think affordability at all price points, along with the loss of luster of Austin post-pandemic is not great for future growth. I think some of it is that is tied to Texas in general; you just can’t be this unfriendly (to women, to minorities, to just application of the law) and not have that impact immigration, particularly among high wage earners with the most employment mobility. I don’t think our addition of Instagram celebrities and life coaches makes up for it, either. Anyway, wanted to add that after I blamed rates and admit that not’s all of it.
  2. Looks like the Red Sox kept their best prospects back.
  3. The point is championships. I care who is in the jersey but not the expense of winning. I don’t really care what the budget is as long as it’s spent smartly. Tampa usually runs a payroll 25% of the Astros and wins a lot of games (and would be really good if their generational talent signed to a team friendly decade-long contract wasn’t a pedophile).
  4. Lest this become a thing, there’s no connection to the Wounded Warrior Project and Hegseth. Probably we can dig up some controversy on the former but I’ve also seen lots of actual charity from their fundraising for San Antonio veterans receiving treatment at BAMC. It’s pretty sad that a multiple amputee needs to have a charitable organization pay for remodeling his house so that he can move about in a wheel chair, rather than VA money, but that’s the reality.
  5. Anecdotal, but I know some small builders who aren't able to move their $2.5m+ West Lake homes, either. All of this is rate related and property tax related.
  6. You raise a good point and here's some corroboration. I was exchanging emails the other day with one of the commercial banks to whom we send borrowers for interim constructions loans and they are tapped out. Not because they've got too many home owner borrowers, but because they are also a provider of loans to smaller builders in Austin and they aren't able to move their inventory (bear in mind these are predominately infill spec builds $1.5m+ zips like 78704, so not your usual DR Horton buyer). The bank doesn't want the houses so they renew the loans.
  7. All that money and can’t afford to pay someone to tell him the truth about his hair….
  8. No thanks, he’s had a good start to the season but hasn’t had his inevitable 20-30 games of injury and he’s not the floor spacer a Green replacement needs to be. Keep holding out for Booker and a Suns collapse in ‘26 or the Pacers get dumb and want to move on from Halliburton.
  9. If you have money for down-payment on an investment property, maybe you have sufficient funds to make a few hard money loans? Also, if you hate dealing with tenants that much you can hire a property manager (I’m sure you’ve considered that already).
  10. Take it fwiw, but one of the comments on the Deadline trailer announcement claimed to have worked on the film and stated that’s not him.
  11. Turning it off after about two minutes and the third exaggeration. First off, fuck DR Horton. Second, when a builder includes incentives it’s not taking less in profit-it’s built into the sales price. Considering the video appears to have been published three weeks ago and DR Horton’s stock is about the same as then ($157 a share!), it doesn’t look like the market is expecting some cataclysmic result.
  12. Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie are your Bregman and Tucker replacements at minor league minimum and both are ready. Two top 50 mlb prospects and a few lotto tickets is the minimum I’d settle for. They can keep Bellinger or we take him for a bigger package in exchange for paying his stupid contract.
  13. What’s worse, is he ended up forgoing building his VP’s profile by making her his proxy. As long as the Democratic brand is going to be toxically attached to the social cause de jure, mainstream Democrats will need to run against it (Obama and Clinton both did this successfully). Another way to look at this is that the Dems have been very successful pulling the country left on a host of social issues, but it’s embittered a significant part of the electorate that would otherwise find common cause with them, particularly on economic issues.
  14. I liked your trade for Correa idea on Clutchfans (I'm with @Wulaw Horn that the Astros are out of trade pieces that don't hurt elsewhere, with one exception--spend Crane's money). I think we're all in agreement that the stars aligned in the building of the team; it's just historically unusual to to put together that much talent, much of it lowly touted, and have it coalesce into this much success in a modern era. I also think that's supportive of skepticism that it can be done again via hitting on draft picks and international free agent signings. If Brown adds value, it's likely in finding guys overlooked but those also don't tend to turn into 4.4 WAR players (which is what we lose, at least on the short-term, if Bregman bounces). They also take more time to develop and that's not aligned with our current window of contention. It's also a good argument for either going all in in '25 or trading Tucker and Valdez in support of continuing the run through when Alvarez gets expensive and/or becomes a Dodger again (you may have been considerate of the latter with your Correa suggestion since the contracts line up). I don't think you can plan on both.
  15. What you hit on is the evolving nature of NCAA football free agency and presumably it comes to mirror pro sports. At some point the teams will wise up and figure out the template of what works (i.e., proportionally the money needs to go to who can play early or can offer additional value, like a back-up QB willing to sit for a couple of years in the right circumstance). In the interim, a Yankees like ability to eat bad deals seems more valuable than smart deployment of money because there's too many parties (Aggie/Missouri) willing to be dumb with money.
  16. I keep finding this kind of thing curious. Missouri presumably gave him a big commitment last year. He’s also a local-why is there such a quick divorce?
  17. I have a suspicion that Crane will allow Tucker and Alvarez to walk with temporary fill-ins that effectively ends the championship competitiveness of the team during the Altuve/Alvarez/cheap starters window. The team will be stuck in mediocrity purgatory for several years until Altuve retires, Yordan departs, and then it can finally bottom out. Under Luhnow, you had guys like Elias and Megdal that would get on interviews with the baseball analytics community and they’d talk about this kind of thing-maybe it’s a little like fighting the baseball version of entropy but it’s secondary challenge to winning a championship (now that we know we can build it, can we keep it going forever). As chatty as Brown is, there’s no concept of a plan they seem to promote besides Crane’s stated aversion to long-term payroll obligations. And maybe all of that will prove correct or sensible in time. Without the benefit of that, it looks like Crane has internalized best practices that Luhnow 2019 might have supported but don’t make sense in 2025.
  18. No, they are going to find him out in a cave living like Jeremiah Johnson hunting the infected. I think the island where 28 days later ends and this film appears to begin is a colony he and black Moneypenny started but he left/disappeared from years ago. Maybe he’s even Kick-Ass’s dad. One other prediction is that Garland explores the idea introduced in 28 weeks that some people are immune from the virus but become carriers.
  19. Interesting that Cilian Murphy isn’t highlighted in the trailer. I wonder if they are using him for a cameo or a second act surprise.
  20. Also, I hope he makes a liar out of me, but if Zach Dezenzo gets 400 at bats next season it’s because we’re not in contention.
  21. I’m good with all of that but I think Mayo ends up in right and we’ll need a third baseman found elsewhere. It’s all fantasy, anyway. Crane’s balls went with Luhnow in the divorce settlement. I think there’s one person here and one person on Crawfish boxes that’s compelled to say “Diaz to first” like he’s the poor victim of a gypsy curse. I’ve hated Profar ever since he was the BA #1 prospect in the Rangers organization and that’s the kind of signing that ends with the GM getting fired. Unless that’s actually part of your plan, in which case touché.
  22. It’s only a little better than this year’s third base free agent options. You’re going to prefer a trade candidate.
  23. You should respond back that you tried to give them away for free but no one would take them.
  24. Pretty interesting that Bryant is heading out with a *currently* open depth chart in front him.
  25. We checked our Valor a few years back and it looked pretty awesome. If we weren’t already in the best elementary in RRISD I’d send our kids there. If I was in AISD and not in one of the language immersion campuses I’d far prefer it.
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