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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. I've actually quizzed TCAD appraisers and outside appraisers who argue on behalf of commercial clients to TCAD on this and there's a general skepticism outside of TCAD's office on any consistent methodology produced by a mass appraisal. If you follow values, you might expect to see (based on MSA appraisal data) 5% or so annual unimproved value increases in the years 2014-2019 (I usually cite those because they were the most recent before the pandemic disrupted the market) and declining improvement values to reflect age related depreciation* (you wouldn't expect to see that on every property, but that would represent the mean outcome). Anyway, that's not what you'll see--land values jump around, sometimes they adjust downward, then increase the improvements value, sometimes both go up, sometimes both go down (a lot of that in the last year). You are correct, however, in that scarcity of comparable sales leads to a lot of distorted "market" valuations. *somewhat in defense of this, improvement value doesn't linearly do anything--it might depreciate based on age, or increase based on replacement cost factors.
  2. I wrote a "how to protest your taxes guide" I teach to realtors for advising their buyers. TCAD values, particularly on higher value properties, aren't all that accurate using commonly understood appraisal practices, but are a crude estimate based on a mass appraisal software. I don't know they are truly useful as a measure of real property value (and to be fair, they are only loosely trying to be). I get your point, however. I'm sure the builder is wondering why his agent can't get him $2.5m.
  3. Both of those dudes are starters for their team and they are going to be paid to be retained. If you want to grab a RB you need to look at the Big 12 or the ACC and look for someone who wants a higher profile going into their draft year.
  4. I mean, it's pretty gorgeous. I feel bad for the builder; just being on the market for six months sucks and he's been making fairly modest price reductions (I'm sure his agent is affirming that it's priced right for the market and can't believe it's not getting more traction). You just don't get this aggressive if solvency isn't an issue.
  5. Hmmmm......
  6. Same here-I’m not interested in investing in an undeveloped lot. Sell me how you’re going to convert that to money.
  7. Does a dude who played less than 60 minutes for Texas even count as a former Horn?
  8. Sounds like being an AE for a beer and wine distributor. I did a home loan for a guy who said of his profession “you’ll never make a million dollars, but you’ll get to live like you make a million.”
  9. What’s the address? I’m prepared to go over asking up $995,010.
  10. I bet it’s the starting price and they are trying to auction it. There was one in the Austin Country Club that did that earlier in the year and got national media attention because it appeared the sales price had been reduced from $6m to $2m or something.
  11. You, of all people, should know the rules here….
  12. There’s definitely a dearth of demand at certain prices. I’ve got a former colleague that did very well on a flip in 2023 and just let the bank take back his subsequent $2.5 m Westlake flip because he’s been unable to sell it for two years. His thinking was that Westlake real estate should have more a demand floor because of the location premium, and that buyers in that price range would be more immune from job or recession concerns.
  13. Bearing in mind I’m kind of a snob, this never proved true in my youth in Liberty, Chambers, and east Harris county*. I feel like there’s a nostalgia for that @Brisketexan has perpetuated here that doesn’t stand up to reality. And let’s be honest, hungry oil field workers aren’t known for being discerning in their food, whiskey or women. *admittedly that’s not South Louisiana but it’s plenty coonass, nonetheless.
  14. I know everyone wants Schumer and Jeffries to be something they are not, but it’s pretty clear that the next version of the Democratic Party (I.e., the one that can win two elections in a row) is going to be fronted by different leadership. I hate quoting him as much as I do, but @Bozo_Casanova has said (and this is going to be to his chagrin, but Ezra Klein just said this, too) that the candidate changes the party, not the other way around and I think that’s a better road map for what comes next than to continually be disappointed that Schumer isn’t a wartime consigliere. @wildcat09I know you’re out on Platner, but he’s so much better as a template candidate than trying to run 72 year old Sherrod Brown again or 77 year old Janet Mills.
  15. Maybe? He was hired in August and that tweet (errrr., bluesky post) is an even more catty bitch move than insisting you be recognized as the third of your name. I realize it’s politics, but Occam’s razor would suggest it’s more performance related and framing it otherwise is so his career isn’t hindered after prematurely jumping off the Swanson for MI Gov campaign.
  16. Maybe, but a healthy org should be seeing junior management hired by other orgs in roles that represent promotions. I know they are only starting the process of bringing in candidates for these bench and GM/scouting openings, but it’ll be interesting to see if they promote from within and/or which orgs do they hire from (in other words, a lot of comfort hire Atlanta guys might be nothing, might be a red flag). I think there’s been some atrophy in scouting and coaching so new blood (outside hire) here would be preferable, imo.
  17. Funny, this was published in the NY Times today and it sounds like he’s doing fine. Comments on the article were also supportive. I Thought Graham Platner Was Finished. What I Saw in Maine Changed My Mind. It would certainly stand to reason that a first time candidate would churn through staffers more than, say the governor, both because of a lack of professional network and because first-time candidates tend to need to hire fast due to urgency (plus, for the staffers, they simply don’t have the familiarity with the candidate like they would if they had campaigned together previously). I still think Platner is the horse to back because the other candidates in the primary are boring and he’s the best messenger of discontent.
  18. I only skimmed your link, but after 25 years in real estate I’ll say that the media, 99% of the time, exaggerates a superficial cause or correlation so there’s a hook for content. Let me give you an example-let’s say there’s a seasonal affect to delistings and sellers don’t want the trouble of keeping a house available during the holidays, most buyers aren’t shopping, and re-listing in January makes the house appear re-introduced. Given the fact listings are up, the percentage of these delisting might not be significant but the total number appears higher than normal. Or maybe the percentage is up, but it’s by such a fractional amount it wouldn’t deserve mention except as a way to provide a little more evidence to help support the story the journalist wants to tell. Anyway, I’m not saying that this is conclusively going on, just that I’ve noticed a lot of these venerable news gathering organizations are actually pretty lazy when it comes to areas of my professional expertise because the algorithm (and editors/publishers before that) demand new content.
  19. Fwiw, I just got back from Paris and was picking the brain for restaurant recs of the sommelier for the Michelin starred, top 50 in the world restaurant that cost a plane ticket to eat at. His suggestion? A Mexican restaurant in the 11th arrondisement... Bear in mind this is the Mexican taco I see advertised from casual restaurants: Weirdly, a lot of the top restaurants in Paris (and Austin) are sushi omakases. Why do we eat that here? I mean, Tokyo is just a 15 hour flight away.
  20. I was going to respond with “they don’t have 51 votes”, though yours is likely closer to the truth. They are better insulated from their constituents and/or from needing a Trump endorsement in future elections, and presume they still hold some power over Trump.
  21. Echoing this, that was my conclusion, too, after shopping around on an investment property we own in Houston. As long as they are cheaper I don’t really care what they do with their profits. That said, (and I brought this up to our CM) the energy rebate program kind of sucks in practice (it’s cumbersome, which rewards big firms that have staff to submit as an approved vendor with the city and punishes small businessmen, lots of them Hispanic, who can do the work cheaper, faster, and with a reputation for higher quality labor). Plus, it’s out of step with the purported values the city likes to advertise about itself.
  22. LCHorn

    Brian Kelly to L$U

    OU might be an upgrade over Ole Miss, but that’s debatable and not much of one, best case. OU tends to be pretty savvy when hiring coaches, however, so I’d expect they look for someone like Kalen Deboer coming off two seasons at Fresno State, I.e., just enough experience but looking for fresh talent. Plus, that’s cheaper.
  23. What’s funny is that Under the Dome came out during a bit of a post-accident fallow period for King, and I recall a lot of reviews championing it as a return to form. I like to imagine it as King’s version of Lost, which he clearly loved and wrote about in his EW column.
  24. I basically voted for the status quo on all constitutional amendments regarding taxes and Prop Q. Very interested to see the results on the latter, as the signs for "Love Austin, vote No" seem to be all I see.
  25. I’m jealous, my 9 year old won’t watch anything remotely scary with me. Even worse, he dimes me out to his mother. I mean, what kid doesn’t fondly recall the night terrors resulting from the Poltergeist clown doll?
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