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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. My advice, considering you moved in with your SO and not homeless, is to wait it out rather than reduce price. The rate environment is significantly distorting demand and it isn’t likely to be as seasonally driven as 2014-2019. It might be that demand peaks in October because rates are in the 5’s. I also think the previous prejudice against houses that have been sitting isn’t as strong.
  2. Sort of? The MBS market is in competition with the Fed and pricing spread between the two securities is subject to market demand. We’ve seen increased demand for MBS based on projections of what the Fed will do, and decreased demand when the news appears to favor “higher for longer”. All of this is upriver of retail prices but if you want cheap mortgages you need to convince CALPERS to buy the bonds that collateralize them. This is my prediction, but once the Fed does reduce rates (in June or whenever), the MBS market will probably quickly narrow down the spread (so maybe a 25 bps cut on T bills gets us 50 or 100 bps subsequent improvement over maybe the next month). But who knows, there’s massive commercial loan risk exposure by the depository banks and they are also competing with Fannie/Freddie to issue collateralized debt. It might be that six months from now, GSE money is the only game in town and we’ve seen them happily return profits to shareholders rather than adjust pricing to incentivize borrowing.
  3. If you want to upgrade the edges of your crust you can brush them with olive oil before you put on your sauce. When I make homemade dough the edges can get overly crispy and this solves for it.
  4. I can’t believe he’s shooting like that and we’ve only fouled him three times. I thought Ime was supposed to be a rough and tumble defensive coach.
  5. Why would a devoted follower of Christ have any objection toward eliminating violence and discrimination based on gender identity? Furthermore, isn’t Jesus’s revolutionary message to fully give of oneself, out of love and charity, in order to bring about heaven on earth? Sharing a holiday in support of this couldn’t be possibly more on message for an actual disciple.
  6. 1. Nice of Bateman to dress up. 2. Will Arnett’s hair guy is earning his $$
  7. I still think the Abreu signing was the right call at the time given the understood alternatives. That said, it seems like we’ve lost our appetite for doing anything slightly unconventional, like trading a Miles Straw type for a lotto ticket(s) in the minors. Brown’s first real offseason reminded me of Hunsicker’s when fucking McLane would tell him to add players but not spend anything to do it (and we end up with Scuffy Moehler). The fact that a World Series aspirant is wasting a roster spot on Jon Singleton is befuddling.
  8. LCHorn

    Breakfast places

    Skip the pancakes and order the hamburger, regular fries.
  9. I’m repeating myself on this, but I think that Crane doesn’t trust Brown enough for him to operate freely, particularly on large free agent signings. I miss Luhnow and the sense that there is a plan.
  10. I’m sure this was recorded from the regular St. Andrew’s Sunday service but it’s missing a crowd shot of the six parishioners in attendance, five of whom are senior citizens and the other a driver from the assisted care facility. But, at least he got something to publish to YouTube and X, so kudos I guess for taking a stand….
  11. I think you're overlooking the self-sorting aspect of the universities and boards (while you're conclusion may remain true). TexAgs is probably where you find those missing voters.
  12. Just in weird coincidental ways I met Jake Hammer and Antwan Kirk Hughes as recruits and was heavily selling Texas (the latter was at Buffalo Club when neither of us were legal).
  13. Every few months for the last decade I Google “Winds of Winter news” and see a usual suspects list of SEO bait “articles” that report there’s been no update. It’s like he has his own personal corner of the internet creating a time capsule of his failures.
  14. That joke get retold every couple of weeks on the various Facebook bourbon groups...
  15. You might be right, but I feel like their push to expand the risk pool began more than a decade ago and preceding any common concern about the automobile market changing much (not only that, but from friends who've worked there, it's run a lot like the military where changes only occur incrementally and no one is getting rewarded for making a risky bet on what the future might hold, even if it works out). I also think USAA auto is available beyond officers--I was able to get it and I'm (was) a shitbag enlisted USMC grunt.
  16. You’d probably know better than me, but in my opinion it’s changed the makeup of the risk pool from veterans to mostly civilians, and that’s otherwise equalized the claims between it and other insurers (where previously they could afford to be cheaper because veterans were more likely to be risk averse, I.e., not speeding, not letting deferred maintenance on a house get out of hand, etc.). When I had USAA I watched my car insurance double in two years because I lived in 78702, or so they told me.
  17. Personally, I’m regretting having let my 7 year old play Minecraft (even though it’s only on the weekends) and I’d rather he not play any educational games on a tablet, either. The problem isn’t in the intention (Minecraft allows for a ton of creativity. Education games should be a way to teach in a fun way), it’s that the programmers have gotten SO good at making them. There’s a constant sense of achievement and reward, the kind that gives you a little dopamine hit and it reminds me of people playing slot machines for hours.
  18. While I think you bring up a good point, getting Ewers high profile national awards, first round draft pick convo, etc., plus presumably the same with Manning is going to have overflow prestige on the rest of the QB room. If you need evidence of this just take a look at Alabama’s portal departures on defense the last few years. QB is a little different, too, in that you are looking more at depth chart and less at program status since only one can play.
  19. Infallible Jedi that are always the good guys is narratively inert if you want to tell compelling and interesting stories. What you come up with is this, which I'm sure you're not putting high in your queue (unless you're like me with little kids):
  20. So this is a Monterey Oak planted spring 2021 in Austin and who had a rough go of it during last year’s drought. It’s irrigated weekly but it’s a rental so I can only do it one day automatically. Any opinion on if it’s salvageable?
  21. Given age and health concerns I’d rather go with France and keep the money available for something else.
  22. She said it was fantastic and a once in a lifetime experience but she also didn't mention going to Quintonil (so no way to compare the two). My own memory of Pujol is a little hazy--frankly, I remember the meal from Restaurante Nicos better and it sure was a lot cheaper. She did hit Contramar and appeared to like it more than I did.
  23. I know someone that just got back and said the tasting menu at Pujol has gotten a lot more expensive, too (she said their bill was about $800 for two including drinks). I think ours from before Covid was more in the $500 range.
  24. I don't think the effect can be explained as easily as "my house was worth X, now it's worth 80% of X", which is typically where your interest lies on the real estate/mortgage thread. I know you're weren't making that claim, but I wanted to clarify in case someone else might benefit from the reassurance their home's value hadn't fallen to that degree. When you have a decline in values that's broadly effecting everyone it'll make lenders risk averse and that hasn't happened in Austin (with the exception of Citibank). To your point, I'm sure downward price pressure exists, even on the new construction side but it's not being revealed in sales prices (this is an exaggeration, but a builder would rather give you $50K in incentives than reduce the sales price by $10K, that's how hard-wired they are on fighting for sales price). The place to tease that out is on profitability and I haven't seen that data.
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