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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. I’m not entirely sure I’m following but I think you’re referring to ageism. That might be a part of it but we’re seeing the same thing across lots of differently aged peer groups. Mortgage lending historically is a good place for an older person to still be useful but I think this particular down cycle has been hard on them. Tech, particularly because there’s just been so many more layoffs there, probably contributes more to my perception of labor weakness. Again, all this is anecdotal, but I hear a lot of folks taking state jobs and they are happy to be employed but it’s a pay cut and not in their field of expertise.
  2. Personally I think the Larry Summers “inflation might be due to high rates” drumbeat will grow as we get closer to the end of the year. Also, purely anecdotal but between me in mortgage lending and wife in tech, we know ALOT of people laid off in the last 12-24 months, many of whom are having a terrible time finding something comparable. I’m getting really skeptical about using the unemployment rate as a predictive measure.
  3. I’m still trying to navigate my own feelings on the subject, but let me give you a rebuttal on this in two parts. First, Roe didn’t settle the issue-it might very well be that the white nationalist movement would have picked another issue where the Venn diagram on white supremacy and male superiority didn’t overlap so well, but the forces that would oppose them have had 50 years to legislate or otherwise create a compelling counter-narrative to the evangelicals powering most of the rhetoric repeated by GOP politicians. At some point progressives need to look in the mirror and admit we failed. Second, there’s clearly institutional flaws in the way that government is organized and in the basic character of the body politic. I’m not sure which is easier to cure, but most of our efforts have been on the latter (for example, liberals have presumed that increased levels of education, particularly among women, would have been a non-controversial policy to implement but it’s either the cause or correlative with a large drop in education for men and subsequent rightward shift among them). I’m not nearly so pessimistic as @Brisketexan, but we’re definitely approaching a “you’ve got to break it to fix it” stage because the federal government (and now state governments) are doing a bad job of actually passing or implementing popular programs and/or improvements. Bringing it back to your post, I don’t know how you reach low information citizens without making them FEEL consequences, and good leaders are going to need to rally that emotion towards passing legislation that actually protects women’s body autonomy.
  4. Wells just intimated that he may be getting the hint that Texas likes Armstrong and Townsend more.
  5. Tangent alert, but there’s various stories on the internet from the writers/producers recounting Seagal pitching a fit on set about his death scene. Bear in mind he was hired with the script in place and his character perishing in the first act, but on set he wanted it re-written to become the protagonist.
  6. I don’t want to put the cart before the horse, but 4 years as an AD is a long time. A second term Biden administration could rightly look to get a fresh face here.
  7. The pork chop looks more interesting to me than the steak, although I’m sure they were both delicious.
  8. This--you've got to chip away at the support. There's going to be at least a few "hold your nose and vote for Trump" voters that are going to be a pushed away because voting for a convicted felon is just too much. If we're thinking margins will be slim in battleground states then every bit of help matters.
  9. I bet this is vindicating for DA Bragg--there was a lot of "legal scholars" publishing opinion pieces that the DA had a week case after it was filed.
  10. I had Bonevac for Contemporary Moral Problems AND got a B so this hits close to home…
  11. If she was basing her decision on my wishlist, I'd have her run against Patrick in '26 (if the ledge implodes next year and/or Tump prevails in '24) or '30.
  12. She needs to keep building her network and take over the state Dem party.
  13. Taking a look at his advanced stats, Bregman isn't really deviating all that much from career numbers. Maybe it's a little loss of line drive percentage here, a little loss of exit velocity there, plus bad luck. The only area where there's a more demonstrative decline is walk rate. It would be kind of crazy if he was cooked at 30.
  14. Well, if you can’t tell they quit programming for you a long time ago. That’s why the “one man army” movies starring (take your pick) Chris Pratt, Michael B Jordan, or Hemsworth are going direct to streaming.
  15. You’d think with declining attendance the exhibitors would reduce prices or do more to offer a superlative experience (and there’s been efforts on the latter), but it mostly appears they, like pro sports, price themselves out of young people’s reach and never get adopted as a result.
  16. Michael Kofman, who has been referenced many times on the thread and writes for The NY Times and War on the Rocks, predicts a 2024 stalemate with Ukraine attempting to build up for an offensive no earlier than spring 2025.
  17. Oh, no doubt we are at least owed a thanks in the meat smoking manifesto.
  18. @Neonmoon For years when recruiters have called me my response has been "send me a list of your jumbo investors and raw pricing on a typical jumbo with 20% down, SFR, O/O, 780, and if I like it we can talk further." It's really the only area that, if a depository bank or credit union is in the mood, I can get beat and not do a whole hell of a lot about it. For example, last year I lost a $1.6m or so loan, returning borrower who was quite loyal, to Navy Fed. If I had the ability to entirely waive our YSP and have the bank make the loan for free I still would been more expensive. On top of that we would ridden him hard about his RSU income (because the best priced investor was Citi and they are anal retentive) and Navy Fed said "no big deal, we'll do it" (note the borrower wasn't a veteran).
  19. LCHorn

    Texas Primaries

    Certainly words I’d never associate with a professional footballer. BTW, did you know Allred played in the NFL? This might be false hope, but Abbott doesn’t just need two to win, he needs two to win in the GENERAL.
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