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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. LCHorn
    I’m going to sound a little like Bozo on this but I think the nature of the disparate coalitions comprising the Dems make this impossible (or, just really, really hard) compared to the GOP. I’m sure there’s a plan, in fact there’s probably 50 different plans but nothing that unites the 2020 Biden voters. Let’s be honest, that one was a surprise and I doubt most of us were predicting it after Iowa. It took the campaign to build that coalition and I think a lot of voters, I among them, ended up casting a vote against Trump/what he represents as much as in support of Biden. Those same dynamics will exist in ‘24. This is where I differ from Axelrod, too-you just don’t retire when you have the power of incumbency, and I don’t see a Senator Obama standing on the periphery who seems broadly appealing if only there wasn’t an incumbent he’d have to run against.
  2. LCHorn
    Who is “they”? You write as if there’s a group of elites higher than the sitting President who have leverage if they could coalesce around an alternative. I would posit that the swing electorate is still quite capable of being re-engaged and will do as as the campaigns start spending money more freely.
  3. LCHorn
    I bet Dusty could have been talked out of retirement for $8m.
  4. LCHorn
    This is where I miss 538 picking apart the poll or putting it in context.
  5. LCHorn
    It’s interesting to consider the body politic on here versus the Austin Reddit group-they, by comparison, are very pro-bike lanes.
  6. LCHorn
    He has the yips and needs a slump buster.
  7. LCHorn

    Shogun

    LCHorn replied to CooterBrown's topic in Movies and TV

    It hadn’t occurred to me before, but now that you mention it women play fully fleshed our roles in Tai-Pan and Noble House, too. When I first the books I just presumed it was in keeping with a late 60’s/early 70’s motif of heros and heroines possessing almost supernatural talents (think Fleming’s Bond novels), but I think you’re right, I think Clavelle wants to recognize that you cannot tell those stories well purely from the worldview of the central character.
  8. LCHorn

    Shogun

    LCHorn replied to CooterBrown's topic in Movies and TV

    He’s also such perfect casting for Toranaga. I tried to watch the Richard Chamberlain miniseries a few months back and got through the first hour-it’s a pretty straight adaptation (and well done if dated). I’m excited to see an update that places the women in more central roles. I hadn’t considered that until seeing the trailer-it looks like there’s more perspective given to Mariko’s story.
  9. LCHorn
    Congrats, I guess? Everyone looks thrilled to be there in picture 2.
  10. LCHorn
    That's not what today's bond market reaction is telling us.
  11. LCHorn
    So I wanted to chime in last night when I was reading @StassneyHorn and @Wulaw Horn before it kind of devolved into a debate on whether we're in a recession and then I passed out after getting the kids down to bed. I do think, in terms of Wu hearing consistently from his borrowers various economic concerns, there's a political part to this (this is a little unavoidably CR)--his part of North Houston/Kingwood is culturally aligned to the GOP (I would say MAGA but most of those folks don't have any money). We've seen from surveys that the right's sense of their economic well being is very much in thrall to whichever party is in charge in the federal government (I'm sure this is somewhat true on the left but I'll leave any speculation on the reason for CR). TLDR: Wu's borrowers perceive themselves off as worse off than they really are. Either way, it's a barrier to making a large purchase.
  12. LCHorn
    Interesting that Brown refers to players by name. I would have expected someone analytically minded to say something like “we’ve got potentially 150 relief innings we need to replace..”
  13. LCHorn
    I'm putting my money on the 5/24; Habib will write that his predictions for May 2023 was actually for May 2024.
  14. LCHorn
    I thought you guys were bros? Hasn’t he helped you on the NIL stuff?
  15. LCHorn
    2 favorable mornings in a row? Maybe the tide is turning…
  16. LCHorn
    I saw that tweet-it would be funny if we found out in the Evan Drellich penned account of the Astros 2023-2025 seasons entitled “How Did They Fuck This Up?!?” that Dana simply wasn’t invited to the manager interviews.
  17. LCHorn
    Why? Isn’t the whole point of sports to chase championships?
  18. LCHorn
    Oh, I think it’s going to open very poorly relative to other Marvel releases. There are probably five different reasons for this having nothing to do with the quality of the film, so if it’s only decent then it’ll lack any second or third week help.
  19. LCHorn
    We’ve (at the company level, not me personally), explored this on the compliance side and think it can be done. Our main objection is our referrals are 60% realtor based and it doesn’t make us look good if we’re in competition with them.
  20. LCHorn
    Bear in mind my limited experience with drones was getting trained to fly them in Iraq in 2006, but it's hard for me to imagine a drone being both fast AND quiet enough to escape detection.
  21. LCHorn
    You know, I've never liked the idea of robo-umps (I prefer the chaos of human fallibility) but I would prefer a robo manager, at least until they began to be broadly adopted and all the decision making begins to be the same. That's one reason why I want the GM to do the hiring; I want there to be clear accountability.
  22. LCHorn
    That's about all we can gross right now (on QM loans) in Austin and the LO gets half that, tops (on the mortgage bank side--the brokers make more but have to cover expenses on their end). Frankly it's not unusual for us to have to cheaper from there, too. In other words, the banking part of the equation isn't generating revenue sufficient to pay for those discounts. That's either been misunderstood or someone is communicating it dishonestly (either is likely, builders typically hire the incompetent or out to pasture for their internal lending, although perhaps I shouldn't be critical as that's the only piece of the market that's really moving).
  23. LCHorn
    Certainly no harm in playing the devil’s advocate. I think all of that is really beside the point, however. Question #1 is should he be trying to sell into this market if he doesn’t need to, and I think most home owners in the Austin MSA would prosper most by waiting. Also, just in regard to the HELOC, it’s not leverage unless he needs it; it exists to provide flexibility and as a Plan B to needing to sell otherwise to provide down payment funds. Otherwise, the only cost to him is an appraisal and whatever fees the lender might charge him upfront (most likely under $1k).
  24. LCHorn
    That's where I'm at. If he's going to lose almost the entirety of the African American vote, is it somehow a character defect if he wants consultation on how to appeal to moderate Republicans? The nutters aren't voting for anyone with a D by their name. I feel like national politics has infected everything; there's lots of common ground between both parties on local issues.
  25. LCHorn
    That sounds lovely, I’m jealous. I last shopped for property managers pre-Covid (and this is in Austin); I wouldn’t be surprised if the cost has gone up like everything else, but I was mostly seeing $125-$150 a month. Also, based on talking to other landlords, pretty much everyone dislikes their property manager, both on the landlord and the tenant side. I’d probably look on Reddit for Dallas area property management and/or start talking to realtors that might know someone (some realtors pull double duty and that’s probably your best bet if you want to keep the cost low).

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