LCHorn

Congrats, I guess? Everyone looks thrilled to be there in picture 2.

That's not what today's bond market reaction is telling us.

So I wanted to chime in last night when I was reading @StassneyHorn and @Wulaw Horn before it kind of devolved into a debate on whether we're in a recession and then I passed out after getting the kids down to bed. I do think, in terms of Wu hearing consistently from his borrowers various economic concerns, there's a political part to this (this is a little unavoidably CR)--his part of North Houston/Kingwood is culturally aligned to the GOP (I would say MAGA but most of those folks don't have any money). We've seen from surveys that the right's sense of their economic well being is very much in thrall to whichever party is in charge in the federal government (I'm sure this is somewhat true on the left but I'll leave any speculation on the reason for CR). TLDR: Wu's borrowers perceive themselves off as worse off than they really are. Either way, it's a barrier to making a large purchase.

Interesting that Brown refers to players by name. I would have expected someone analytically minded to say something like “we’ve got potentially 150 relief innings we need to replace..”

I'm putting my money on the 5/24; Habib will write that his predictions for May 2023 was actually for May 2024.

I thought you guys were bros? Hasn’t he helped you on the NIL stuff?

2 favorable mornings in a row? Maybe the tide is turning…

I saw that tweet-it would be funny if we found out in the Evan Drellich penned account of the Astros 2023-2025 seasons entitled “How Did They Fuck This Up?!?” that Dana simply wasn’t invited to the manager interviews.

Why? Isn’t the whole point of sports to chase championships?

Oh, I think it’s going to open very poorly relative to other Marvel releases. There are probably five different reasons for this having nothing to do with the quality of the film, so if it’s only decent then it’ll lack any second or third week help.

We’ve (at the company level, not me personally), explored this on the compliance side and think it can be done. Our main objection is our referrals are 60% realtor based and it doesn’t make us look good if we’re in competition with them.

Bear in mind my limited experience with drones was getting trained to fly them in Iraq in 2006, but it's hard for me to imagine a drone being both fast AND quiet enough to escape detection.

You know, I've never liked the idea of robo-umps (I prefer the chaos of human fallibility) but I would prefer a robo manager, at least until they began to be broadly adopted and all the decision making begins to be the same. That's one reason why I want the GM to do the hiring; I want there to be clear accountability.

That's about all we can gross right now (on QM loans) in Austin and the LO gets half that, tops (on the mortgage bank side--the brokers make more but have to cover expenses on their end). Frankly it's not unusual for us to have to cheaper from there, too. In other words, the banking part of the equation isn't generating revenue sufficient to pay for those discounts. That's either been misunderstood or someone is communicating it dishonestly (either is likely, builders typically hire the incompetent or out to pasture for their internal lending, although perhaps I shouldn't be critical as that's the only piece of the market that's really moving).

Certainly no harm in playing the devil’s advocate. I think all of that is really beside the point, however. Question #1 is should he be trying to sell into this market if he doesn’t need to, and I think most home owners in the Austin MSA would prosper most by waiting. Also, just in regard to the HELOC, it’s not leverage unless he needs it; it exists to provide flexibility and as a Plan B to needing to sell otherwise to provide down payment funds. Otherwise, the only cost to him is an appraisal and whatever fees the lender might charge him upfront (most likely under $1k).

That's where I'm at. If he's going to lose almost the entirety of the African American vote, is it somehow a character defect if he wants consultation on how to appeal to moderate Republicans? The nutters aren't voting for anyone with a D by their name. I feel like national politics has infected everything; there's lots of common ground between both parties on local issues.

That sounds lovely, I’m jealous. I last shopped for property managers pre-Covid (and this is in Austin); I wouldn’t be surprised if the cost has gone up like everything else, but I was mostly seeing $125-$150 a month. Also, based on talking to other landlords, pretty much everyone dislikes their property manager, both on the landlord and the tenant side. I’d probably look on Reddit for Dallas area property management and/or start talking to realtors that might know someone (some realtors pull double duty and that’s probably your best bet if you want to keep the cost low).

I'm a little skeptical that Ausmus was actually THE runner-up last time, personally.

The HELOC will be fine for helping with the cash-poor problem (presuming you can get enough-max loan to value for both loans will be 80% of the present value). The real question is one of timing; I’d check with a realtor first on this, but if your house is just “okay” then it’s probably ideal to wait until demand picks up (we may all be living in fantasy land about this but in the industry we are pinning our hopes on rates dropping back into the fives to see an uptick in buyers). If your family is joining you in 2023 then see if you can get it leased for six months (minimum) and then plan on getting it listed for sale in May or June if the market is better. If it’s not then maybe you go more aggressive and try to lock a tenant in for 18 months.

I don't know much about Kapler besides a vague memory of Baseball America touting him as the next stud OF and he didn't really pan out. Why is everyone so down on him as a manager? I feel like Zaidi is someone who'd utilize a lot of the same analytical approach as Luhnow, who we all wish was still here. He had to have seen something he liked to hire him.

At risk of this being a little stream of consciousness, two thoughts: 1. It sounds like the goal is to have the family join you in Seattle at some point; in the interim they are occupying the house in Georgetown and that's not a situation requiring immediate remedy (in other words, you CAN rent something in Seattle, maybe not ideal, but you can afford two housing expenses at the same time). This is important because if you cannot afford both housing expenses at the time it makes your decision making more clear. Can you clarify when they'd ideally join you in Seattle? If it's 6 months from now (say end of spring semester) does that cause problems? 2. If you have any desire to obtain a HELOC you need to make this your first priority. You CANNOT get a second lien on an investment property and the bank is going to be scrutinizing your occupancy. As long as your family resides there (and your spouse is on title) then it shouldn't be hard to prove, but once you've lost the elements we might look at for confirmation (address for filing your taxes, driver's license address, etc.) a bank a won't touch it. I'm a big fan of having HELOC's for emergencies, anyway. You don't want second lien cash out (your alternative to a HELOC) because there's no reason to pay interest on a debt you might end up not needing (the HELOC is mainly for the flexibility to buy something.

One correction; Israel has never, ever NOT relied on the US for survival.

Crane isn’t rehiring Luhnow unless he’s desperate. I forget who posted this previously but the tweet that all of his manager/GM hires came from outside the org made a lot of sense. My guess is Crane understands the value in pulling in ideas from other successful teams outweighs continuity, everything else being equal. I would really like to know the gossip on why he doesn’t trust the GM to make the hire, however.

I would rather have another tackle in the class anyway, particularly one that might need a couple of years of cooking before he’s ready to play (and understands that).

He has a good slider but it didn’t miss bats as well this year. The real problem is his fastball went from A+++ to above average and none of his other pitches improved to compensate.