I’ve been in a bit of a funk since @Bozo_Casanova posted that Nate Silver piece (really just that one Ruy Teixeira link from 2022 that talks about how the Dem party isn‘t able to talk to the working class because I know it’s true), but here’s mine.
Forget the candidates, let’s just talk campaigns and the electorate. The HUGE money advantage held by the Harris campaign and the fact it’s being run by folks who are still traumatized by 2016 makes me believe they are taking nothing for granted. Plouffe was on with Dan Pfeiffer on PSA (so the wonkiest of the boys with one of the Harris dominant strategists) and Plouffe admitted internals were much tighter than the public polls.
If we take that as true, which campaign is in a position to maximize that? The Harris campaign may not have a simple, digestible message. It might be swimming against economic tides. But, one of those fundamentals of politics is that it is SO powerful to have an actual human, a campaign representative, ask for your vote. The Harris campaign has the money and the logistical support to make that ask.
The other part I come back to is that Trump has done absolutely nothing in the last four years to sell himself outside of his MAGA core of support. If he’s picking someone up it’s not because they like the candidate, it’s a protest vote, and I’m hopeful that that sense of dissatisfaction is getting picked up by the polls, but it’s not the same thing as casting the vote. Voters have had their opportunity to vent, so to speak, and some of those Trump voters will now be okay with voting for Harris.