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LCHorn

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Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. You know, I've never liked the idea of robo-umps (I prefer the chaos of human fallibility) but I would prefer a robo manager, at least until they began to be broadly adopted and all the decision making begins to be the same. That's one reason why I want the GM to do the hiring; I want there to be clear accountability.
  2. That's about all we can gross right now (on QM loans) in Austin and the LO gets half that, tops (on the mortgage bank side--the brokers make more but have to cover expenses on their end). Frankly it's not unusual for us to have to cheaper from there, too. In other words, the banking part of the equation isn't generating revenue sufficient to pay for those discounts. That's either been misunderstood or someone is communicating it dishonestly (either is likely, builders typically hire the incompetent or out to pasture for their internal lending, although perhaps I shouldn't be critical as that's the only piece of the market that's really moving).
  3. Certainly no harm in playing the devil’s advocate. I think all of that is really beside the point, however. Question #1 is should he be trying to sell into this market if he doesn’t need to, and I think most home owners in the Austin MSA would prosper most by waiting. Also, just in regard to the HELOC, it’s not leverage unless he needs it; it exists to provide flexibility and as a Plan B to needing to sell otherwise to provide down payment funds. Otherwise, the only cost to him is an appraisal and whatever fees the lender might charge him upfront (most likely under $1k).
  4. That's where I'm at. If he's going to lose almost the entirety of the African American vote, is it somehow a character defect if he wants consultation on how to appeal to moderate Republicans? The nutters aren't voting for anyone with a D by their name. I feel like national politics has infected everything; there's lots of common ground between both parties on local issues.
  5. That sounds lovely, I’m jealous. I last shopped for property managers pre-Covid (and this is in Austin); I wouldn’t be surprised if the cost has gone up like everything else, but I was mostly seeing $125-$150 a month. Also, based on talking to other landlords, pretty much everyone dislikes their property manager, both on the landlord and the tenant side. I’d probably look on Reddit for Dallas area property management and/or start talking to realtors that might know someone (some realtors pull double duty and that’s probably your best bet if you want to keep the cost low).
  6. I'm a little skeptical that Ausmus was actually THE runner-up last time, personally.
  7. The HELOC will be fine for helping with the cash-poor problem (presuming you can get enough-max loan to value for both loans will be 80% of the present value). The real question is one of timing; I’d check with a realtor first on this, but if your house is just “okay” then it’s probably ideal to wait until demand picks up (we may all be living in fantasy land about this but in the industry we are pinning our hopes on rates dropping back into the fives to see an uptick in buyers). If your family is joining you in 2023 then see if you can get it leased for six months (minimum) and then plan on getting it listed for sale in May or June if the market is better. If it’s not then maybe you go more aggressive and try to lock a tenant in for 18 months.
  8. I don't know much about Kapler besides a vague memory of Baseball America touting him as the next stud OF and he didn't really pan out. Why is everyone so down on him as a manager? I feel like Zaidi is someone who'd utilize a lot of the same analytical approach as Luhnow, who we all wish was still here. He had to have seen something he liked to hire him.
  9. At risk of this being a little stream of consciousness, two thoughts: 1. It sounds like the goal is to have the family join you in Seattle at some point; in the interim they are occupying the house in Georgetown and that's not a situation requiring immediate remedy (in other words, you CAN rent something in Seattle, maybe not ideal, but you can afford two housing expenses at the same time). This is important because if you cannot afford both housing expenses at the time it makes your decision making more clear. Can you clarify when they'd ideally join you in Seattle? If it's 6 months from now (say end of spring semester) does that cause problems? 2. If you have any desire to obtain a HELOC you need to make this your first priority. You CANNOT get a second lien on an investment property and the bank is going to be scrutinizing your occupancy. As long as your family resides there (and your spouse is on title) then it shouldn't be hard to prove, but once you've lost the elements we might look at for confirmation (address for filing your taxes, driver's license address, etc.) a bank a won't touch it. I'm a big fan of having HELOC's for emergencies, anyway. You don't want second lien cash out (your alternative to a HELOC) because there's no reason to pay interest on a debt you might end up not needing (the HELOC is mainly for the flexibility to buy something.
  10. One correction; Israel has never, ever NOT relied on the US for survival.
  11. Crane isn’t rehiring Luhnow unless he’s desperate. I forget who posted this previously but the tweet that all of his manager/GM hires came from outside the org made a lot of sense. My guess is Crane understands the value in pulling in ideas from other successful teams outweighs continuity, everything else being equal. I would really like to know the gossip on why he doesn’t trust the GM to make the hire, however.
  12. I would rather have another tackle in the class anyway, particularly one that might need a couple of years of cooking before he’s ready to play (and understands that).
  13. He has a good slider but it didn’t miss bats as well this year. The real problem is his fastball went from A+++ to above average and none of his other pitches improved to compensate.
  14. Well, he's definitely not a candidate for Dancing with the Stars.
  15. If Whitmire was going to flip parties it would have made a lot more sense to do it 10 years ago. Instead he's stuck in a powerless role in the Senate, each term draining away any hope he might have once had towards a higher office. It's mayor or bust for him, imo. I just don't see SJL as capable managing a diverse Houston set of constituencies, particularly industry and traditional Republican leaning firms, and as a mayor I think you HAVE to do that. I mean, she can't even run her own office with a staff of what 10? 20? Now you're going to make her responsible for 22,000?
  16. Haha, that’s funny. I’m sure Florida’s horrible NIL mishaps from last year has induced caution for all parents of recruits. I think we’re learning that the NIL demands from receivers are probably the highest of any position. The QB’s know if they play they’ll get sponsorship money, same with RB but to a lesser extent. The longer developmental curve for most lineman probably helps keep the old coaching plus facilities pitch in parallel with NIL. Receivers want money yesterday. I haven’t heard this directly but I’d guess Wingo is getting Worthy’s money. I’d also infer from the commitment that Missouri can’t afford Wingo and Burden at the same time (neither could we unless more donors step up).
  17. Dazed and Confused has to be up there for identifying talent before they became leads in other films. Oceans 11 and its sequels but putting together an all star team was kind of the point (not too dissimilar from mad mad world).
  18. Okay, now you have to name names; one of them has to be Oswalt. David Laurilia on fangraphs interviews players and it’s always about their stuff; pitch mix, what are they working on, etc. France (my whipping boy today) had a really great one a few months back and he came off super savvy. I’m sure it’s somewhat emblematic of how much analytics has penetrated the locker room, but it’s nice to hear a pitcher talk about squeezing another 200 rpm on his two seamer rather than the previous generation’s failure to show any understanding of what made them great.
  19. I’m not familiar with their roster-who do you like over there and why? I was thinking taking Contreras in a salary dump might make some sense. Don’t they hate him?
  20. I don’t know why ya’ll think a rookie manager is a good idea…
  21. I don't know why Atlanta would trade him; he's exactly the kind of pitcher you want to baby during the season because he can win a tight game in October (basically the opposite of France).
  22. Win game six? I would have not pitched two rookies, one a 28 year old rookie who survived on smoke and mirrors all season (and you have to imagine the Astros nerd team knows how risky it is to pitch him). I wouldn't have even had France on the postseason roster. I don't know if you've repeated this twice or if another poster said this and I don't see it; he was pretty muscled up coming up. I think he made swing adjustments that have sapped his power and he really needs to improve his eye. I don't know that I want Brantley back (I'd need to know cost and overall plan first) but I'd like the Astros to get back to finding guys who can work counts and don't strike out so frequently; the best Astros teams had very talented hitters but they also just wore out the other team making every at bat an ordeal for the pitcher. When you've got Julks/Dubon, Pena, and Maldonado all sandwiched together it puts SO much more pressure on the rest of the team.
  23. I just reviewed the mlb pending free agents on the position player side, woof.* I don’t think we need to worry about anyone on the farm being blocked by a free agent signing. The upper minors are terrible, for one, and any talent we do have is rawer than a title contending team can afford to mature at the mlb level. I also don’t think we need a DH who can’t play the field-I’d rather preserve the flexibility that rotating that spot provides, particularly since Yordan is injury prone and we have an old 1B who just had his worst season. *on the bright side, it looks like upgrading from Peña will be hard, better to devote that energy elsewhere.
  24. Yeah, I’m not pulling for the Rangers.
  25. I’d love to bring him back as part of platoon or to be the first bat off the bench. Rough game for him today.
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