Jump to content

LCHorn

Full Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2373

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by LCHorn

  1. LCHorn
    Valid question but probably not, at this point. Politico ran a piece a few days ago about the Montana Senate race and ad buys are in the can and more money/outreach isn’t going to persuade someone voting against the incumbent. That’s also why the forecasters are so bearish on that one-Tester is going down unless Harris has bigger than expected coattails. Anyway, you could spend it in Michigan but they have a good Dem running and plenty of party infrastructure. Brown in Ohio will run ahead of Harris and is a good fundraiser already. Basically, if you have money it’s spend it on Texas or Florida. Both will most likely lose but the donor network in Texas probably contributes more nationally so letting them see it get spent at home helps future fundraising efforts.
  2. LCHorn
    Counterpoint-she was hot. This is why we can’t trust retired Army candidates. At least retired USMC officers know chasing thicc Latinas is asking for trouble.
  3. LCHorn
    Yikes!
  4. LCHorn
    Ya’ll keep talking fingers and I don’t want to go back through the thread-whose fingers and what’s the issue with them?
  5. LCHorn
    As a middle-aged adult birthdays kind of suck. Maybe use the day as an excuse to take a break from whatever your routine might be. Go watch a matinee like Don Draper or swim laps at Deep Eddy (I have NEVER not felt emotionally recharged after swimming laps there and then warming myself in the sun). Eat a snow cone, look for something weird at the book store or go walk around campus, explore a nook that might have changed or spend a little time in the Blanton. Make yourself smile and give a big "good afternoon" or "hi!" to everyone you see (most people will be a little puzzled but they'll return the greeting AND be a bit lighter for it). If you have work commitments call in sick, which is usually a good reminder that the world still turns even if we check out for a day. Of course, if all of that is in your routine already then do something else entirely 😉
  6. LCHorn
    You can’t really time the market unless your choice is to get a loan in 2025 versus 2026. There’s going to be additional rate cuts, and we can be fairly positive about the overall direction, but that’s not the kind prediction that works in a smaller time frame. You can always refinance later if the market accommodates it.
  7. LCHorn
    ARM’s on conventional loans haven’t offered pricing discounts since 2007.
  8. LCHorn
    I give Habib a lot of shit but I’m listening to his podcast with Tim Braheem and he called the 50.
  9. LCHorn
    Plus forecasting another 100 bps over 2025.
  10. LCHorn
    Wow! Now we can breathe again.
  11. LCHorn
    I don’t think they will fall off a cliff but I predict they lose some commits once NIL deals are getting firmed up.
  12. LCHorn
    It’s in keeping with King’s trope of places themselves being evil acting as a conduit for other supernatural entities.
  13. LCHorn
    The problem is that a relatively small number of Texas voters willing to vote Dem are watching TV.
  14. LCHorn
    This belongs better on the real estate thread, but I think the ethical conflict is more obvious on the seller side-if I’m an agent I’m more likely to move an under priced house than trying to maximize the price (which obviously is the goal for most sellers). Moreover, my time is finite so the more of it I spend working towards that higher price, the lower the return on said time. As far as the cars, the tax code is VERY realtor friendly. I’ve had realtors send me prelim tax returns showing $20k in yearly AGI and they can also make it show $120k in AGI because of all the eligible deductions. I’m actually kind of surprised we aren’t all realtors just to reap the tax advantages.
  15. LCHorn
    So you've tried to sell them, then? No other method is going to determine market value with the accuracy you're citing. If you believe the Texas A&M Real Estate Center index, sales prices have actually gone up in '24 (every quarter).
  16. LCHorn
    Going down in absolute sense and going down 30%-40% is a huge matter of degree, no? Look, the TCAD values are wildly inexact--you can't use those to presume fair market value, in spite of the Texas Constitution mandate. I don't like using sales price as a proxy for value (it's subject to supply distortion), but the Texas A&M home price index shows a price decline of 14% off the peak. I think that's most heavily felt in the $750K-$1.5m range because those homes are upgrades for most buyers and the potential buyers are locked in to cheaper homes by terrifically low rates. I don't know what your property's value is but I'd wager if it's between $400K-$500K any value loss is in the single digits. Either way, complaining about the city of Austin share of your tax bill while not also putting most of your blame on recapture (if you're getting hit for AISD taxes) is fine, I guess, but the injustice of the latter is in proportion far more offensive to me.
  17. LCHorn
    I don’t know if I’m confusing you with other posters but I keep seeing this concept put forth and it’s just false (with the caveat that I neither care what Zillow says and using them to bolster the credibility of that argument is about as worthless as quoting an Aggie neighbor). Home values have not gone down 30%-40%. They didn’t even do that in 2008 when shit really hit the fan in the property market. I’m pretty disgusted with the inaccuracy of mass property tax appraisals so I’m sympathetic to complaints about cash-flow volatility, but that’s not an Austin problem.
  18. LCHorn
    Same-it was a solid update and relatively unappreciated. Obviously the visual of the vampire kid at the window is iconic, at least to horror film fans, and the update lacks anything that memorable.
  19. LCHorn
    Maybe, but pretend Soros says “here’s some money, go after them anyway”. What’s your message?
  20. LCHorn
    Bulwark podcast with Tim Miller
  21. LCHorn
    So I don’t know if it got talked about last night, but Abby Philips on CNN (who is, btw, the smartest and most concise pundit on cable news) brought up the Harris campaign’s weakness with young men. Thought exercise-this is probably heavily demographically based (as in she doesn’t underperform when adjusted for education or household income), but is there something her campaign should be doing to chip away at Trump’s advantage there? For example, would it be worthwhile for her to go on Rogan, or is his audience going to see anyone that pro-institution as unfriendly?
  22. LCHorn
    I’ve started listening to Tim Miller’s podcast and his Trump mockery scratches an itch the Pod Save America boys just can’t quite get to.
  23. LCHorn
    Rage on, it’s the bureaus.
  24. LCHorn
    I don’t want to single anyone out but this turnip shit is stupid. It’s trying to make fetch happen. On the other hand, ladybug for Lindsay Graham is 100% perfect.
  25. LCHorn
    I do like to chuckle imagining all the side eye John gets at the Klan meetings when Kumar is mentioned.

Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...