The committee isn't going to put a non-conference champion in over Texas if we win the Big 12 and are sitting at 12-1. There's only going to be 1 team per conference in the CFP this year but, like many people were screaming about from the moment it was announced, when there are only 4 spots for 5 power conferences someone is bound to be left out if every conference has a viable option. There's still plenty of ball to play but we need to win out (preferably more convincingly than we have been winning) &:
FSU to lose any game or
The Pac 12 champion to have a loss or
The Big 10 champion to have a loss.
Any of those things happening would give the committee all it needs to move UT to 4th. The only question would be Oregon winning out. They'd have good wins @ Utah, Pac 12 championship vs. UW (avenging their only loss), & OSU. I don't know what the committee does with that compared to us winning @ Bama, vs. KU, vs. KSU, & the Big 12 championship
undefeated or 1 loss SEC champion is in (UGA/Bama). The only scenario I could see the SEC being left out is if either UGA or Bama is a 2 loss SEC champion which seems highly unlikely. Bama would have to lose to Auburn & then beat UGA. UGA would have to drop 2 of 3 between Tenn., OM, GT, & then beat Bama.