Spaceman_Spiff

LETS GO FALTINE

No disagreement that the offense needs to show up. Any way you slice it, this game we need a big showing. My only thought is that we need a third starter much more than another arm in the pen. If morehouse isn’t that guy, its most likely stevens. Maybe I could see throwing southard or Olivares and hope you get a good showing they can roll into regionals. But Dre, we’ve been through this…its just not going to happen. Lets also just reflect on the fact that Olivares has 1 ER in twenty(!) innings and we’re throwing Blair and Duplantier out there. Really saving him for that super needed situation huh.

Makes no sense. Have to go Stevens.

Stevens is the only chance of a third starter, its clear now. Morehouse doesn’t have the stuff to beat quality D1 hitters. Stevens probably gets rocked, but throw him third and hope he can give you 6+ innings of less than 6 run ball.

Old man is so damn clutch this season. Hell yeah Todd

Fuck yeah! Gordon getting it done. Great performance

May be an inning too many for Gordon

Seriously, RPI and ISR have them in the mid 30s. Even suggesting they’d host right now is questionable. Also, A&M at 5? I rolled my eyes seeing them project as a national seed, but #5? Way too much credit for the SEC there, especially since they didn’t play Tennessee or Florida

This came up last year with Pete Hansen, who was on the borderline. Its within 45 days of the draft, so within the first week of September or so. Ahuna is well outside that (just turned 20 at the start of the season)

On 3 days rest, maybe one more? Might be worth pulling him now honestly. Give Stevens a couple

BABIP has hit Stehly hard lately, which was likely I suppose. Faltine has been brutal of late (.750 OPS in conference to go with whats been said). Seems to just get dominated by half decent pitching and has lost something from the start of the year. He’s still better than Daly because of the power, but its getting closer (and not because Daly has seen a resurgence).

10 LOB, not pretty

Can’t let that ball get by

A lot of hard contact so far

Well, here we go.

Things are rough right now - but if Pierce can regroup I think this season is very much still salvageable. For one, we absolutely are the most talented hitting team Pierce has had, and maybe Texas has had in a long time. And as much deserved hate as a our bullpen gets, it's really Pierce's deployment and management that has blown things wide open. Specifically: 1) Throwing the wrong guys: Eckhardt, Sthele, and Duplantier each have 20+ IP. Three of our worst performing arms each with an ERA of 6-8 are the "core" of our bullpen usage. Sthele has never had a good performance this season and Eckhardt and Duplantier are as likely to kill a game as they are to put in a 1-2-3 inning. I don't know what the hell Pierce is still tinkering with, but shut them all down for the season. Harrison and Nixon need to be seeing 2-3 innings (or ~40 pitches) per weekend series going forward, and Harrison should be the first response for any leverage situation. Olivarez, Morehouse, Johnson, and Southard all genuinely have shown flashes but are getting underutilized. They need to collectively be taking 6+ clean/lower-leverage innings each series. Hell, Olivarez has never had a bad outing and is at less than 15IP - what is happening? 2) Stretching and putting relief arms in bad situations: Yesterday was emblematic of Pierce's issues this whole season. Gordon threw 6 fantastic innings yesterday - capping off the sixth by getting out of a tense bases loaded situation at 90+ pitches on the day. Pierce, rather than cashing out his winnings, throws him back into the fire for the 7th. Then when he allows two guys on and no outs Pierce decides not to put in our best, proven leverage arm in Harrison (that would make too much sense) but rather Morehouse, who just came off a lengthy outing Tuesday and has never been tested in this kind of leverage. I'm certain if he goes Morehouse to start 7, Olivarez for 8, and Nixon/Harrison for 9 we win by 5+ runs. He did this with Hansen and Southard at K-State and has repeatedly done this during the season. I get it, the BP is bad. But the answer is not to desperately try to stretch an inning out of an already overextended starting group or a reliever who put in one solid inning. Put good relievers in with clean innings and our team ERA would be a point lower. Seriously, almost all of our big innings are because Pierce stretches a pitcher too far, puts in a new arm with multiple runners on, and cues up a blow-up. Our BP ERA for first IP of the appearance with no runners is great - runners on and its abysmal. These are unproven arms nervous to get blown up, so they nibble too much when in leverage situations, but they are capable of handling their own in the right circumstances. 3) Use relievers smarter: Our pen is best when throwing 1IP at a time with a clean slate. But Pierce bounces between not using arms and then using them way too much. Nixon, every time, looks good in the first inning then falls apart in the second. Seriously, he'd probably look elite if he was just going in in the 9th a couple times every weekend. And this is for all of our arms. Nixon and Harrison should go multiple times a weekend and aim to stick to 1 inning (Harrison can stretch if critical). Everyone else should also be used 1 inning at a time, then hand it to the next guy with clean slate. Pierce has it in his head that if he can just find/force diamonds out of this group he can ride them for multiple innings like last year with Witt. Steer into the skid; you've got a rough BP, so stop screwing them over and put them in positions to succeed and they will (or at least will limit downside if they don't). Let's take care of business against WVU and Kansas, then a strong showing in the B12 tournament could get us back in play for a regional. But be smart, and play to this team's strengths (offense, some starting pitching) and minimize its weaknesses (the BP in leverage situations).

As I typed that, 2 on no outs. Why Pierce, why? This staff’s ERA, Hansen and Nixon especially, would look so much better if Pierce would just finally learn this eminently obvious lesson. Stop getting greedy.

However this works out, Pierce continues to be maddening. Gordon with a great outing and gets out of a bases loaded situation last inning at 90+ pitches. He gave you six gem innings - why send him out for another? Shit pen or not, letting Gordon give up 2 and sending in the pen in with men on base is the dumbest thing I can think of.

Morehouse deserves a shout for a great performance tonight. Shame Harrison was shaky and let in the runner. RGV aren’t amazing, but they’re not slouches by a long shot and 5.1 hitless is exactly the kind of step up this bullpen needs right now.

Craig was referencing Texas State (not Texas) who is slated to be a 3ish seed. He mentioned some had pushed for them to host given their performance, but they don’t seem to have the RPI for it.

Im not saying to give up on him, but people are rose tinting his pre-TJ form just a touch. He pitched 9 innings against a bad non-conference slate. We don’t know what the rest of the season would have been like, but this BP looked pretty good this season against Rice, A&M CC, and Sam Houston too…

Fair point on admissions standards - though Vandy is tougher than we are and plenty of schools that have easy admissions standards aren't hitting those numbers. At least some of that can be attributed to the staff. We also hit 21 kids in the 2018 class and regularly take fliers on JUCO; I concede that it's a factor but not sure I'm ready to say Texas just can't compete for numbers. At the very least, we should be consistently hitting the max we can, knowing we can't have huge classes every other year. Last years class (ranked 60th) is exactly the thing that goes against your argument. 9 guys is just too low, and we're seeing the holes in our roster this year. Getting 2, maybe 3 guys that contribute from a class is brutal for future years, especially if what you see on numbers is true. Agreed on NIL, and I it does have that impact.

I think its fair to say that Pierce has underperformed on HS recruiting expectations. From 2017-2021 we are the 32nd ranked team in HS recruiting (Perfect Game rankings, post-draft). We're 5th in the Big 12 behind Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. There are two pieces to why we're behind. Not recruiting enough players: Baseball scouting and development is hazy at best, so the more players you take the better your chances of pulling in talent that can perform immediately or turn into something useful. In that 5 year period we brought 63 players to campus. A couple schools going for high volume were Vandy 81, Tech 87, Arkansas 96, and Tennessee at 106. Vitello has 8 more players every single year to turn into a Hansen, Elder, Kennedy, or Harrison (all lower rated guys from HS). This is in part why I think we have so many third or fourth year holdovers that are just not developing. If guys can't make an impact in the first couple years, they need to be fighting against a freshman pushing them for their spot. Not enough top-rated prospects: Texas had 3 guys from the Top 100 make it to campus: Madden, Faltine, and Witt. Vanderbilt had 23. Most other successful schools had 6, 8, or 10+. And anecdotally, I think that trickles down to mid-range talent too. In football terms, you can be successful with 3 and low 4 stars. But you're just going to get outgunned eventually on raw talent. Any way you slice it, we're going up against teams nationally that have 2-3x the high talent level guys we do. Now, clearly Pierce has been successful in other areas: scouting, development, and transfer/JUCO recruiting. But while Pierce is doing more with less, that doesn't mean he's done enough to get the highest possible level of talent on the team.

Kennedy feels pretty good to come back as of now. I think we lose 1 of Faltine or Silas, but not both. Ton of talent, but neither has really put it together and Faltine especially feels unlikely to bounce if he doesn’t get a Rd 5 or better slot.

Pierce, its a one run game. Use Harrison, please.