Spaceman_Spiff

Think Dylan Campbell takes over LF. Messinger/Stehly play it out for 3B. Melendez and Kash at 1B/DH depending on fielding. Figure Eckhardt starts Tuesdays and Stewart starts in the Witt role. Nixon, Gordon, Duplantier, Johnson, Southard out of the bullpen. Sthele back from surgery could be an interesting wildcard.

Agree with Lobo..he’s not Cam Williams but he slashed .325/.398/.460 and holds his own at a position of need. Think we’ve got a spot for that on the field. If we don’t, we’re storming through everyone this season.

Not sure about for Kansas, but his statline suggests 6 or 7 in the order for us.

LF sure feels like the spot if IF is full. Even with his speed and fielding, EK would need to take a big step forward to stay in the lineup.

Yeah, McComas said that Stehle and Lummus had UCL surgery, so hopefully they'll be back this year. Lebarron Johnson and Jace Hutchins are both intriguing guys that could make some noise. We'll be pretty young in the bullpen, but there's enough talent there that I think at least one of them breaks out. My guess as of now would be Hansen/Stevens/Witt for the weekend, Stewart mid-week, and Gordon, Nixon, and Hutchins first in relief.

Good news about Messinger. For those interested in a comp, his numbers put him as a cross of Daly or Hodo's performance this year: Strikeouts and walks both a hair below average, hits for a solid average, but not a ton of pop. Probably a decent get defensively (played SS and 3B), maybe on-par with Cam - though stats don't tell you much obviously there. I'd guess he's a presumptive starter at 3B, though at his height I figure 1B is an option too if Stehly plays well.

Of course will take development over recruiting any day, and we've clearly played it smart with JUCO/transfer recruiting. But the blue chip ratio exists in football for a reason - talent matters. Stewart is ~130 and Kash is ~240 according to PG. Both great recruits who you'd expect to have a good shot of being solid contributors next year based on their ranking. Huge to get them on campus. But our ranking is low because compared to other schools we have way fewer top-ranked recruits. In-line with my earlier post, most of the top 10 have as many top-250 recruits as we have all recruits and not all will make it to campus, but more than you'd expect will. Rankings are here. Either way, if Pierce keeps getting it done, I'm not complaining. Just knocking out nervous energy waiting till next season..

Overall pretty pleased with the draft results. Hoping we can hang onto Melendez and Kubichek, but very pleased to hang onto Hansen and Stewart. Looking forward, there's something that's been on my mind - anyone concerned about Pierce's recruiting? We've currently got the 60th ranked recruiting class. Our results for '18-'21 are 8/22/26/60. We might see some upward movement staying intact from the draft, but likely very little (and previous rankings I think are already post-draft). To put it in CFB terms, we know that mid-to-high four stars are what build a consistent winner. Analog to baseball is likely that the Top ~150-200 are potential college stars (high 4 star/5 star). Top 250-500 are potential solid contributors but at kind of a 50/50, with rare star upside (think high 3-star). 500+ is probably JAG, but volume yields some diamonds (low three-stars). An ideal class, guessing based on the competition, should probably be 15-20 commits: ~5-10 T150, 5-10 T250/300, 5-10 T300+. Ours seem to usually be ~3/ 2-5 /10. We seem to be a good 5 guys short for the solid+ range in most of our classes - even our big classes have a lot of 500+ filler that yields maybe 1 guy who ends up a starter. So instead of having a regular rotation of high-talent/3 year types with occasional draft pain and flame outs we have occasional stars, and rely heavily on 4-5 year guys or transfers. For perspective, this year, the Top 10 classes often have 10+ guys (with many making it to campus) ranked T150 or better (while Stewart is our only T150 guy at ~130). My guess is that this can be chalked up to issues in evaluation or recruiting effectiveness. I know many will say that this stuff is murky because of the draft, but honestly, I think if anything we should be pushing draft luck harder. Looking at Arkansas, LSU, and MSU - they had 11/7/5 guys in that T150 range and looking at the draft results, 6-8 / 3 / 2 look set to make it to campus. If anything, our own results suggest that. Over '18-'21 we've had 13 T150 guys (~3 per class). Six made it to campus (Madden, Reagan, Faltine, Witt, Stehle, and Stewart), and of those 3 became stars or plausible stars, with Stewart already getting talked about as in the rotation and Stehle still with 2+ years to contribute post-surgery. Any way you slice it, I take those odds. I'll also note that I know we do a lot of JUCO/transfer work and the results on it are good. Maybe that moves the needle a bit, but given it adds 1-2 impact guys a year, I don't think it's an either/or. This season was outstanding, and I'm very excited for our prospects next year. If anything, the above might suggest that Pierce and Co. are outperforming on development/management given the talent they actually have. But I'm wondering if that isn't somewhat self-inflicted. I know there are qualifiers (committing 3+ years away, money, draft/transfer strategy). But I don't really see a reason we can't put up recruiting alongside Vandy/Arksansas/UF/LSU/MSU/Tennessee.

This, after tonight were 30-1 after scoring first. That’s just nuts - recent struggles from Ty and Kolby aside, our pitching and defense is filthy in quality and depth. We’re a top team on one side and an easily plus team on other, it shows. Let’s keep it rolling.

Question for those smarter than me on pitcher management. At what point do you consider saving Tristan for a few innings if needed later in the weekend? Or is it not worth messing with his rhythm/rotation?

FFS, walks and soft pop ups…

What’s the thought on Pierce’s management in this stretch, especially this game? I know this stuff tends to be hindsight 20/20, but Stevens gave you 5.1 IP in a scoreless game and you sit through a walk, 2HBP, a WP, 2 1B, and 2 2B before you pull him in the next inning? Feels like you’ve gotta trust Witt or Quintanilla to get you 2 outs before the game gets blown out. 2-3 runs instead of 5 and its a different story.

He’s been seeing the ball really well the last few weeks

Not 100% sure how you'd evaluate it, but I think you'd expect to score ~2 runs per HR based on run expectancy, so I don't think we got "lucky" with how many we scored on the bombs. We had ~15 base runners over 18 innings, so ~85% chance there's someone on base when you go yard. 3/4 of of our home runs had someone on - feels about right. We're also on pace for 1 HR/game, so we had 2x as many as you'd expect given our power profile. Whatever, point is, they got it done to win the series but they need to hit more consistently and strike out less all else equal.

Agreed, but I do think Braff's point stands. No sense playing the "what if" game - a series win is a series win. But it was very much still with below average offense. Clutch hitting behind excellent pitching got it done, but we've gotta be better at the plate to consistently win against top teams.

Striking out on 30-40% of our PAs this series is suboptimal.

Stevens looking good; pitch count low through 4

Make up call for the third base tag earlier?

Hey everyone, really appreciate the positive feedback on the last post. Jumping back in before we kickoff the crux in our schedule (thanks @Machinator for the shout, great name Spaceman). Time to discuss what's happened over the last few weeks (spoiler: we looked excellent, winning 14 straight) and where things stand ahead of a series against Oklahoma State. Quick hits for those looking to keep the read short: stats and figures to back up the analysis are here. TL;DR: After an uneven start, the bats came alive in a big way, with us batting 1.000+ OPS as a team over that stretch. Pitching remained dominant, continuing to show off its combination of top-end quality and serious depth (our first, like, 7 guys are good or great - outstanding). Combined we've earned that Top 10 billing from a month ago. We're about to hit the toughest part of our schedule (Ok. State, TCU, and Tech are all likely better than any team we've played since the opening tourney (Figure 1)). So the next month will define whether our regular season ends with a conference championship and a national seed. Pierce has skippered a great season to-date, let's see if it ends up excellent. Oh, and I also apologize to Ivan Melendez, who has absolutely mashed since I expressed doubts about him. Missed on that one. Batting Last time (Figure 2) we read the tea leaves on our offense. Previous takeaways: better power, but with a high strikeout rate, lower than usual walks, and several likely candidates for BABIP regression. Since then (Figure 3), we've come alive and have looked the part in every possible way. We're striking out less, walking more (more than we strikeout!), and hitting the ball and hitting it hard. Obviously the question is whether we can keep this up; is this who this team really is or a hot streak buoyed by a series of teams with crappy arms? Honestly, it's hard to say. Yeah, it's tough to not to argue that Kansas through ACU was a really easy stretch of arms (Figure 1), and we haven't exactly faced a load of ace staffs. But we did hit against South Carolina and BYU, ostensibly pretty legit groups. Even Kansas State isn't awful and we put up 4 ER on their Friday starter Wicks, who has Round 1 hype. Not to mention that its totally plausible we've continued to hone our approach and swings throughout the season. Either way, the next three series will prove a good barometer (they're not exactly world-beater pitching staffs, with Ok. State looking hittable in particular, but above-average quality throughout). Who's Hot: Ivan Melendez: A month ago I said "that is ugly. Especially for a 1B/DH. He strikes out at 2x the acceptable rate, walks well below average, and has average power. He's propped up by a big BABIP, but this isn't going to last. Nice experiment, but let's all agree to shut this down" How did that age you ask? Well, since I typed that he's hit 1.720 OPS, .700 wOBA, and tied the Texas record for consecutive games with home runs. So, poorly? I should have known better to bet against someone with a nickname like the "Hispanic Titanic". Obviously, sample size and quality of competition caveats, but he seems to have just decided to be better at…everything…to start the Kansas series. He struck out at a third of the previous rate, walked 2.5x as often, and 2/3s of his hits went for extra bases (1/3 for homeruns?!). I'd say his BABIP continues to scream "this is unsustainable", but what do you know he sported a .460 BABIP in both full seasons of JUCO ball. Yes it's still outlier above top draft picks-level high, but BABIP may be correlated with hitter quality in college (see: KATOH). Besides, at this point, even with BABIP regression we're likely arguing between great and outstanding. Let's see where things end up, but I'm not betting against him a second time. Zach Zubia: A much much better run over the last few weeks, putting him only behind Melendez for unadjusted wOBA on the season. If he can continue to walk and hit for power while keeping Ks under control, that'd be an excellent finish for one of Pierce's long-time players. Cam Williams: Continued to crush the ball (3/4 of hits in this stretch have gone for extra bases) and upped his walk rate significantly. Hoping he's ok and comes back strong during a critical stretch. Mike Antico: A lot of the things that make him promising have stayed the same (walking a ton, striking out rarely, and hitting the ball hard when he gets ahold of it) including several bombs over the last few weeks. Looking at the season to date stats (Figure 4), he's starting to deliver on previous promise. There's still a gap, driven by his BABIP, that is tough to suss out. Looking at his stats at St. John's, he's had a lot of variation (including one major outlier ~500 BABIP season) - I think the continued depression could be attributed to a propensity for shallow pop-ups and fly outs. Would be curious to see his batted ball profile to get an idea of average launch angle, but I could see him continuing to sport a high 200s/low 300s BABIP due to it. Still, if he continues to walk, hit, and steal the way he has I think that tradeoff is worth it. Who's Not: Eric Kennedy: Continues to struggle and was left out of the offensive surge the rest of the team has seen. Rooting for him to turn it around, but the lack of any power is not an aberration (2019 and 2020 look very similar). Given the minus bat and his plus speed, he's gotta walk more in order to be a real contributor. Mitchell Daly: Won't be too negative as he started hot and the eye seems to be pretty good (K% and BB% stabilizes much faster than batted statistics). But the BABIP has started to regress and it feels more likely than not that he continues to come back to earth. On a final note, I'm curious where Pierce lands on the lineup. He seems to move it around a lot, but it feels important to lock-in for the final stretch. Hoping Cam is healthy, I'd go with Antico, Zubia, Melendez, Williams, Faltine, Daly, Ardoin, Hodo, Kennedy. Give Pierce the speed he likes at the top of the lineup, then follow with quality/power bats keeping our biggest power hitters in 3/4 and finishing ~top to bottom in quality (bonus to have Kennedy's speed at 9 to flip the lineup). Pitching Story here is more straightforward - we've largely held the same performance (Figures 5 and 6). Our stats, particularly for the key part of our staff (starters + top 3/4 relievers) are largely indistinguishable. Ty Madden "cooled off" in his two most recent starts, but that stat line still looks excellent. Our staff ERA is 2.8 and the FIP of our first 6-7 guys is sub 4.0. That's pretty outrageous, and I'd say we have a well-deserved position to date as one of the top D1 staffs. Since the strengths are obvious, and much the same as last time, I'll throw out a couple key caveats. 1) Our next three opponents are easily going to be the biggest challenge our pitchers have seen since February, they're all top 10 or top 20 lineups. (Figure 1) 2) Our BABIP of ~.265 allowed is the fourth lowest in college baseball (out of 300 teams). Definitely boosted by excellent defense (Faltine, Daly, and Antico all seem like +s with Faltine putting up gems constantly). But regression wouldn't be crazy. Fun fact: two of the teams lower than us are Fairfield (.225?!) and Vandy (.241). Anyway, I like the staff. And having 3-4 very solid looking arms out of the pen is a huge boost for tight late-inning matchups (how many games have we seen them score/rally late and beat out an opposing bullpen?) Outlook: You should feel bullish because: 1) SoS or not, this lineup sure feels like one of the best Pierce has fielded 2) This pitching staff is excellent (also likely one of the best Pierce has had), with a critical combination of top-end starter talent and overall depth to make us really dangerous 3) Pierce has bounced between strengths in his time here: 2017 had the pitching with no offense, 2018 had a magical run batting and clutch performances but lacked real pitching talent and lineup depth. 2019…probably best to forget about that one. But this year there's a chance he's got both, which would be a sight to behold, and the team has shown the swagger and the resilience to back it up. 4) Whatever caveats there are, we've absolutely earned a top 10, even top 5 ranking to date. Tied for the conference lead and on a 14-game win streak - Pierce and this team have delivered an excellent season so far. You should feel cautious because: We have seen bad and good teams, but outside of South Carolina and the opening tourney (a big but, yes), not really any great teams. This back-to-back run of series is against the top teams in the Big 12, arguably some of the best in the country, and better than anything we've seen since opening weekend. On both sides, we're going to see some of the stiffest competition the nation has to offer - it's a hard road, but we control our destiny for both the conference and a national seed. Should be a good month of baseball. Hook 'em.

Defense is really challenging to approach in a data driven way which is why I didn't address it. But Faltine and Ardoin in particular have been stout, which is certainly a boon. Pitching is definitely up there, though I'm sure Vandy would like to have a word as far as best goes.

Yeah, calling Melendez out in the middle of an absolute tear is looking ill-advised. Happy to grab a second helping of crow if it means he keeps crushing the ball.

Upshot of what increasingly looks like a great pitching staff is that it only takes a late hot streak hitting to make some noise in the postseason. I'm more tentative about conference/regional standings expectations for this team (we won't really know until the last few weeks of the season given our schedule). But at the very least Pierce's teams have done well in elimination play, so it should be a good ride regardless of seeding.

Very fair - without Statcast style stats we don't have a full picture, but I agree that it's a concern of his. Hopeful that his eye wins out and he adjusts or the randomness shakes out to improve his contact.

Hi everyone, long-time lurker, first-time poster. So I've had this post on my mind for a while, and I thought the baseball team's recent stretch created a good opportunity to pull the trigger. Texas baseball is solidly into conference play in the fifth year of David Pierce's tenure and the question still remains: are we good this year? You may have seen us ranked #5 nationally to start this week, then get blanked 2-0 in College Station, and finish it off with a series sweep of Kansas. So what does it all mean? First, a TL;DR: The 2021 Texas baseball team has several of the pieces to make noise this season, particularly in what looks to be an excellent pitching staff. But the offense lacks true top-end star production and top to bottom has concerning peripherals (especially in strike outs). Both sides of the ball have had very favorable luck so far - all signs suggest we are closer to Top 25 than Top 5 and regression going forward is likely. Now, Pierce's teams are nothing if not unpredictable and there's still a lot of season left, but with one year left on his contract we're probably heading for more questions than answers. With that done, let's get to it, and take a look at the bats. Take a look here to see the stats I'm referencing. (Figure 1) This breaks out into traditional usage and triple slash style stats, then the underlying peripherals (strikeout and walk rates and the % of our hits that go for extra bases or home runs). Finally, we've got more advanced stats including: wOBA which gives us a number scaled like OBP but properly weighting batting production and BABIP suggesting how lucky a player has been (and/or potentially the quality of the defenses we've faced). Initial takeaways are that this is pretty good! Starters are averaging an OPS of .800, which would be the best since Kody Clemens & co. went off in 2018. We're above average in OBP and SLG, which is supported by above average walks and xbH and homerun rates. Problem is, we strike out a lot. Like a lot. Pierce's UT teams are usually average in Ks (~19%), so this year is a major spike and puts us well above the national average (A&M may not have been an aberration). We're also really lucky. Our BABIP is ~30-40 points higher than we've historically landed at. That's a lot, and almost certainly unsustainable. Even in 2018 (a very Cinderalla year where we had Pierce's best hitter in Kody) we had a starter BABIP of ~.325. To try to estimate the effect of this, I adjusted each players' and the teams stats to reflect a historically average level of luck + defense (a .315 BABIP), which yields us our "x"pected metrics for OBP and wOBA. Much more average than they initially appear. Looking at the history of Pierce's teams (Figure 2), emphasizes the above, plus we're probably lucky not just in production but in runs scored. Compare our wOBA this year to 2018 and the runs per game, suggesting we're probably scoring .25-.5 runs per game more than we "should" even before adjusting for BIP luck. Overall, the bats on this team aren't bad. You get the feeling Pierce is pushing a more power-heavy strategy, which is yielding higher xBH rates while sacrificing on strikeouts and walks. It's generally working, with some classic TTO peaks/slumps, but this is likely to get worse based on the underlying talent of the team - which is more average than great. Speaking of, what about the players individually? Who's doing well, who's not doing well, and who's overrated? (Figure 1). Who I like: Cam Williams: Well, this isn't controversial. Cam has flashed some serious power and he's actually probably underperforming given his luck so far. Not a fan of the strikeouts and meh walk rate, but the power is worth it. Mike Antico: Wait what? Yep, his slash line says bottom of the order but his advanced stats and speed say potential leadoff bat. Mike does his best Duke Ellis impression with a sky-high walk rate and propensity to steal, but without the massive strikeout issue (he's below average K%!) He's undervalued because of his BABIP, and some of that could be his contact quality (too high a flyout rate?), but I like him as an impact player the rest of the year. Hell, if you go by x.wOBA, he could be one of the best on the team. Trey Faltine: At first glance you'd think he's more in the middle of the pack (and striking out 25%+ of the time is suboptimal). But his walk rate makes up for it and the power peripherals mean he gets it done when he makes contact. Quality production for a stud defensive SS. Who I like less: Ivan Melendez: Oof, I hate to say it, but that is ugly. Especially for a 1B/DH. He strikes out at 2x the acceptable rate, walks well below average, and has average power. He's propped up by a big BABIP, but this isn't going to last (the Kansas series just pushed him over an x.wOBA of .300) Nice experiment, but let's all agree to shut this down and lock Zubia at 1B for the year. He's not his 2018 self but he's still fine. Mitchell Daly: Damn it, I was very excited about him from watching/listening. But those stats are standing on an insane .470+ BABIP, while adjusted stats suggest he's more 6-8 spot in the order quality. He doesn't strike out a ton and has some pop, but underlying peripherals are all too average for now. Looks (unfortunately) overhyped. Douglas Hodo: Not quite as hyped as Daly, but still overrated due to his BABIP (he's actually already come back down to earth a bit - last week his BABIP was .400+). More strike-outs, low walks, and painfully poor power. Hodo at least has some defensive upside compared to Melendez, so I'd argue for giving Campbell a run at DH. (but seriously, how do we have these levels of production from nearly every corner spot??) Overall, we're probably not a terrible team batting. But as we saw Tuesday, our bats come up empty a worrying share of the time, especially against above average arms. Beyond that, one thing that really strikes me about Pierce's offenses (other than the fact that they usually just cannot hit for power) is the lack of top-end 2-4 hole hitters and the poor performance of our multi-year starters (Zubia, Todd, Petrinsky, Kennedy). It struck me about the time that OU's Hardman hit what seemed like his fourth consecutive homer against us, but if you look at the class teams of the Big 12 - their rosters are littered with 1-3 high .900 or even 1.000+ OPS guys. Even with BABIP and park factors (the Disch is actually about dead neutral now) potentially affecting it, we just don't have those 2-3 really dangerous bats in the heart of the lineup. Kody is Pierce's only 1.000+ OPS hitter ever. And most years we're lucky to have 1-2 guys break 900. That's…troubling. What's worse, we have multiple starters who seem to have stagnated or even regressed during their time. Seriously, go back and look, 2018 Zubia had Cam Williams production and today he's striking out more than ever with no prayer of even double digit bombs? Now, baseball performance (especially with college sample sizes) is tricky and it's pretty common that guys stagnate or regress at any level. And to his credit, Pierce has some success stories: Kody Clemens, David Hamilton, Ryan Reynolds, even Cam. But my gut tells me we're either off by an entire tier of hitting talent, or we're just not developing them correctly. On to pitchers (Figure 3). Same set-up: basic stats, peripherals/context metrics, then advanced and luck/BABIP adjusted metrics (note this is wOBA allowed, so we're looking for lower). Well this looks much better, and tracks with how we're thinking about this team. We're getting a lot of strike outs, limiting walks+HBP, and have below average HR rates (HR% here is on all plate appearances). That staff wOBA allowed looks really good and despite clear luck on the pitching side too (historical BABIP for our pitchers is ~.305-.310), our expected metrics still look very good (average D1 ERA/FIP is ~4.9). What strikes me looking at this is the depth of quality. We've got Ty Madden putting up a performance to-date that could rival Morgan Cooper's in 2017 as Pierce's best pitcher. We've got what look to be three average or plus starters in Stevens, Kubichek, and Hansen. And we've got serious depth in quality relief arms (Quintanilla is looking much more like his 2019 self!) headlined by Tanner Witt, who Pierce rightfully uses in any and all leverage occasions. Of course, there are a lot of potential caveats there. The staff still is likely getting pretty lucky. We haven't yet had to really stress the back-end of our bullpen thanks to long stretches from starters + Witt. Our overall SoS is about the same for the back half of the year, but with some big batting in-conference teams. And outside weekend starters, the sample size is really small for our other arms (relievers are notoriously fickle, remember Ridgeway?). But there's a lot to like here, and this look gives a lot more confidence that Pierce has a legit staff on his hands, with the upside to even be his absolute best. Take a look at the past few years (Figure 4) and tell me you don’t have a good feeling. Put it all together, what's the takeaway of all this? Are we good? Well - maybe (how's that for hard-hitting insight). We're not #5, that's for sure. Boyd's Worlds ISRs have us bouncing in the 20-30 range, which feels closer to me. I really do think the pitching staff has got something cooking. We look set to be in the mix for the conference. And as 2018 will tell you, Pierce can get it done in the postseason - don't put him past sneaking into a memorable year. But we've got a tough conference road ahead with Tech, Okie State, and TCU all ahead of us. And despite some mixed, but overall strong-seeming performances at the plate, the numbers suggest those are likely to regress. All-together, I'm cautious, but I still like this team a lot would love to be proved wrong. So let's go earn a regional host and head to Omaha, Coach. Hook 'em.