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Scipio

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Scipio

  1. I have a UCLA <5.5 win totals bet. LSU, Oregon, Penn St, USC, Nebraska, Iowa are all guaranteed to likely losses and they don't play a single other game where they're not in peril. That's not good. We're looking at 3-9 with the wrong breaks. Chip's disinterest in HS recruiting, the late departure to Ohio State (February!) and the loss of D'Anton Lynn are fatal to a team that was in rebuild anyway. Foster may also be special, so a guy like Schiano at Rutgers will just out coach him and game manage a win.
  2. There's a good write up on Owens, but he's missing from one of the graphics. My outsourced Serbian graphics guy who formats my book for publication is a character. I've never met him and we're always talking at 3am Sarajevo time on chat. And we have conversations like this: Zlatan, you put the Longhorns historical NFL draft graphic in the South Carolina write up. Move it back where I had it. It look good there. Page is balanced. No Zlatan, move it back. You can't randomly put graphics where ever you like them. Book must be aesthetic. Or else is shit. Zlatan, move it. I will do. What else? You removed Trey Owens from the QB graphic. He is nothing to me. He is no Quinn, no Arch. Bah. He is nothing. Let him suffer. Please put him back. (grounds out cigarette) Zlatan will think about it.
  3. No Bryant Westbrook moments I can recalll last year, but Quintreveon had a couple of these
  4. Sorry, literally buried writing and publishing the preview. Fun to research but a chore to write. I ended up at 55,000+ words. It's robust. I had a ton of institutional knowledge of the Big 12 and I was already pretty good on the premier SEC programs but educating myself on Vandy, Miss St, Kentucky, South Carolina etc was enjoyable. I also got balls deep into Michigan, UTSA, Colorado St. The last two are fun if you want to understand what matchups to watch that might level up to better opponents and it's interesting to see how the portal is impacting G5s. Writing UL-Monroe was amusing. I actually feel bad for them. A big portion of it is devoted to the Texas roster and I'm pretty sure I have some nuggets for even the most plugged in fan. For example, after reading my Ewers breakdown, you'll leave it with a much better understanding of his strengths and weaknesses as a contextual QB. Play action vs. non play action. Blitzed vs not blitzed. Pressured efficiency. ADOT metrics. It's not all dry - I explain what it means and what level ups look like. Will Gallagher's photos are terrific. Best seen in color on the e-version (Smashwords, Apple), but they're pretty good in black and white on the hardcopy from Amazon. Some bonus content: recruiting, an essay on why only Two Conferences Matter (Power 4 is an illusion) etc. If you're interested, you can buy it here. If you have any questions, feel free.
  5. Too often, 1031s are a seductive trap where investors let the tax tail wag the investment dog. The time to identify and close on the new property passes much more quickly than you perceive. You end up rushing into a C level asset with extreme pressure to close, no matter what due diligence reveals. I'd look at CRE investing where you can offset capital gains with Year 1 depreciation losses. Delaware Statutory Trusts are for marks or the elderly content to earn their fee laden 5.5% so they can enjoy life.
  6. I don't see a deceleration anytime soon, but macroeconomic events happen. I rented out my house in Austin for 17 years and there is currently a significant delta between rent and your actual costs at a lot price points. Austin rents are rising to meet demand, but I don't like eating a cash loss every month with the hope of even more appreciation to make it worth your while on the back end. You'd also need to learn to be a landlord, unless you hire property management, vile charlatans that belong in Dante's deepest circles of Hell. I don't know your individual situation though. Feel free to PM if you need a sounding board. I hope you can absolutely nail the high point of the market, but the quest for absolute optimization can be a trap. As you mention, homes aren't particularly nimble assets if a market dynamic shifts. You're in the catbird seat sitting on an enviably appreciated asset so don't fret utter optimization.
  7. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/hamster-trading-cryptocurrencies-rigged-cage-goxx-bitcoin-price-ether-doge-2021-9 A hamster has been trading cryptocurrencies in a cage rigged to automatically buy and sell tokens since June - and it's currently outperforming the S&P 500.
  8. Absolutely. The classic cons are just repackaged, exploited base desires the ancient Greeks wrote about. The Spanish Prisoner now comes to you via Nigerian emailers. The con in con man stands for confidence. How a swindler plays to your confidence determines the grift's efficacy. The conned are the most ardent defenders of the con artist until it's all laid bare. Even well after. Because they're defending their own sense of self. Madoff's time honored long con strategy once he got some scale was in refusing to allow people to invest with him. "No, no we are full. I can't help you. I'm sorry." The person presses him more. "Look, this isn't the right move for you. Our investors are aggressive, bold, confident." The prospective client begs. "Please Bernie, please. Fit me in." Bernie would relent after making a great show fo asking an underling if they could make room. "Yes, but only in the next 24 hours, Bernie. A spot just opened up. And it has to be an XXXX commitment!" Madoff reluctantly consents while shaking his head at the investor's good fortune. You think the investor who begged to get in will be asking for quarterlies? Financials? He is grateful. He is now part of an elite, secret club of stars and socialites. Watch this scene from Goodfellas for a similar street level con. The restaurant owner implores Paulie to take an interest in the place and "protect him"....from Paulie's own guys. Paulie plays the coy refusal, mob style and finally agrees to help him out. Dude leaves that meeting thinking he's been done a favor. They rob him blind and burn it down. NSFW (language)
  9. He's a grown man and his own greed/ignorance got the best of him. He allowed Theranos to use his good name as a credibility signal to bilk others. Theranos didn't target SV smart money for the most part - they were focused on East Coast and Washington DC elite money who were gonna get rich on this Silicon Valley startup thing they'd read about in the New York Times. "It seems that this technology thing is here to stay! We're buying Google at a $1.50! Look at the names on their board! And a visionary woman CEO!" That's why they had a board of directors comprised of Kissinger, Schultz, Mattis, Perry, Nunn - for the DC or East Coast investor that's a blessing from an old establishment who are "plugged in" and must know something we proles do not. In essence, it was a signal to the dumb smart who operate based on credentialism, sweetheart deals, bullshit guided contracts, and implied associations rather than substance. Madoff, redux.
  10. As an aside, because tribalism, it's probably worth mentioning that Inside Texas welcomed RGBIII's promo of Burnt Ends , pinned it on the main board, passed it around social. Even though we're all supposed to be competitors or some bullshit. Point being: the smart communities are working together to make the football good. The less smart see everything as zero sum. That's why Gabe and I gladly kicked in on the surly NIL deal rather than just doing our own. A lot of opportunity for cooperation when everyone just wants to make the football good.
  11. Thanks for the generous intro. We're fired up about this partnership. Surly is Gabe's home base (and I'm a long time lurker) and the opportunity to invest in the community is an honor we don't take lightly. Helping to optimize an important part of your financial life is a responsibility that we take seriously. Thanks for giving us a shot at earning your business. Hook 'em.
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