statsman

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. On Klatt’s podcast, he noted that the best thing for the SEC is for: 1. ND to lose and open up another at large spot. 2. Texas to beat TAMU to get the number of 2-loss or fewer SEC teams to five, to avoid protracted hair splitting debate.

I think you have it backwards. Calculator says 10-2 UGA (win out, no CG) has a 99% chance. 10-2 Texas (1-1, no CG) has 75% chance. That doesn’t make sense to you?

Per the ESPN playoff calculator, chances of making CFP: Texas- 10-2: 75%, 11-2: 99%, 9-3: 2% Georgia- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 83%, 9-3: 51% Ole Miss: 10-2: 86%, 10-3: 62%, 9-3: 1% Tennessee- 10-2: 83%, 19-3: 24%, 9-3: 1% Bama- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 71%, 9-3: 17% TAMU- 10-3: 58%, 9-3: 5%, 9-4: 1% I am curious about the assumptions that have the SEC CG loss lowering chances versus not playing in the game at all.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor2024/2024-college-football-allstate-playoff-bracket-predictor Odds of BYU making the CFP if it wins out the regular season, but loses the conference CG: 34% Same for SMU: 17% Miami: 32% What this means? Upsets have an impact, some upsets will happen. There will be a little chaos.

ESPN calculator monte-carlos these scenarios and has Texas probably (74%) getting in at 10-2. It relies on the scenarios where extra spots open up (ND loses, ACC and B12 only get one in), I assume.

It’s very interesting that the CFP committee ranked the top G5 school (Bouse) ahead of the top B12 school (BYU). I know that the committee uses early rankings to make points and doesn’t at all feel obligated to maintain a logic consistently through the final rankings, but it’s still very telling about what it thinks of “conferences of equals”.

Per Klatt: the argument that hurts Texas is that a playoff contender’s ceiling is demonstrated by their best win. So far, Texas’ best wins are Michigan or Vandy. That’s our problem. If the Horns win out, Texas’ best win will be TAMU.

Wow! From Sooner Scoop moderator Q&A: 80%?

Well, they played and lost to a 2-5 B1G team, so … maybe? Sagarin has CU at 13. That puts them lower than four B1G teams and six SEC teams.

The best thing the B12 has going for it is a media contract that goes through 2031. Absent Colorado, the numbers are not good. If a G5 conference champ is ever seeded higher than the B12 champ, the conference’s rep will take a hit difficult to recover from.

Does he mention that Sark was in year 1? That recruits knew who their OL coach was (Flood)? That Venables is in year 3 and Bedenbaugh is likely canned?

Lots of Sooner consternation over Fasusi.

I count four of those drives as coming against our starters

Michigan, 4th quarter, less than 5 minutes left, 78 yards, TD. UTSA, 2nd quarter, 75 yards, TD MSU, 4th quarter, 75 yards, TD UGA, 3rd quarter, 89 yards, TD Vanderbilt, 4th quarter, 75 yards, TD Florida, 4th quarter, 67 yards, TD Arkansas, 3rd quarter, 75 yards, TD So, seven in ten games. Five in six SEC games. Is that good?

A SAAB saved my life when a dump truck panic-swerved and drove over me. I walked away unharmed.

https://stats.texassports.com/custompages/sports/m-footbl/archive/stats/07/ut12.htm KO time was 2:42 PM. It was a long game. The sun was setting at the end and the lights were on. But still,…”afternoon game at Kyle?” Really?

Lole (once a Sooner portal commit) has done a hell of a lot more for us than Damonic Williams (the Sooner portal capture that convinced Lole to bail) has done for OU.

I don’t think it was a call. He saw that his guy was going to be covered, that the edge would be set, and went looking for work on his own.

Do you know the last time we lost at Kyle Field, at night? 1993. Were you even born? They had a much, much better team than Texas in 1993. You can say “College Station at night” like it means something. Maybe it once did,…back when Texas was a swing state (oops! No CR!), back when the 386 computer was a sparkle in Michael Dell’s eye, when SAAB (look it up, junior) was a Swedish car, and Saddam had been just been shown what’s what. There is no magic about night games at Kyle Field. They get loud. Our offense has hand signals. It will be fine.

Fify

I love this thread. I’ve never contributed because my fucking bitch of a SIL causes more anger than humor. She’s never had kids, never had a career, got her folks to waste their retirement savings to fund her night clubbing and gig attending in Austin from her 20s to her mid 40s, when she married an older guy (no kids) with a decent job and pension. Now that she doesn’t need her folks for funds, she really has little to do with them. She’ll have flowers sent for gifts. The opposite of love, they say, is indifference, not hate. Why can’t I just never think about her? Because my nieces will occasionally drop how Aunt —— and Uncle _____ will take them to dinner or to do something. My SIL has not one bit to do with my daughter. Maybe it’s because my daughter is adopted (which would be really shitty of her, but is not outside of the bounds of reason), maybe it’s because my SIL is too lazy to leave Austin (or to call), maybe it’s because she just doesn’t want anything do with us. I just know that my 14 year old daughter has asked a couple of times, “Why doesn’t Aunt —— ever see me?” That’s when I get really pissed off at SIL We live in Arlington. So does her aging mom. SIL can’t be bothered to help with time or money. She doesn’t come up here. She’s got her own deal going. I hope to dance on her grave someday. I’m sorry this wasn’t funnier. I have hopes for that. If it takes a zany turn, I will update Edited- we will see BiL and his crew on Thanksgiving, but not SIL. Her own MIL and FIL are long passed, but she wants to do her own thing. What you have to understand is- my MIL is a saint. She has and would make any sacrifice for her kids. SIL isn’t moved. She has made it clear that she has affection for her own MIL, even more than for her mom. A few years ago, her Christmas gift to her own mother was a couple of teacups that her own MIL had painted. SIL made it clear that she thought they were so fucking amazing.

The dogpiling of the OSU guys got me to remember a Texas-OSU game where the Cowboys fans thought they were screwed by the officiating. In 2012, at Stillwater, Joe Bergeron scored the winning TD for Texas with 29 seconds left. OSU fans claimed he fumbled first, and the TD shouldn’t count (OSU came up with the ball). Googling, it turns out that play wasn’t as controversial as remembered. It was reviewed by replay officials, and confirmed. The TV crew was satisfied the call was right, too. The next year, a similar call was made on a Jonathan Gray carry against ISU. ISU picked up the ball and ran it back for what would be the game clinching TD. Instead, it was ruled “down by fwd progress” and Texas went on for the winning score. Ironically, Texas might have been really helped if that carry was ruled a fumble; Texas would have fallen out of league contention and pushed Mack out a few weeks earlier, and perhaps opened up a wider pool of candidates for HC. 2013 was the last time a B12 fanbase argued Texas got a favorable call.

It is fun listening to the SoonerScoop podcast, as they discuss the financial challenges facing them. “We’re not Texas! We’re not even Texas A&M!” They expect their program to perform at a certain level, because it always has.

It was Christian Jones that he called it on.

In NCAA football, a defensive player can maintain continuous contact with an eligible receiver within five yards of the line of scrimmage as long as the receiver hasn't moved past the defender. I don’t get the need for the B12 advocates to try to gaslight us into thinking this was something it wasn’t. It’s not egregious. It’s ticky tack; could go either way. The ump had been giving him the outside corner all game long, and then with a full count and bases loaded, stopped giving it.