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statsman

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Everything posted by statsman

  1. There was a P5 when the 12 team CFP was approved, with four conference champions byes. It was always known that one of the SEC (Ha!), B1G (Ha!), PAC (eyes roll), ACC and B12 wouldn’t get a bye. Everyone assumed that, without UT and OU, it would usually be the B12, and occasionally the ACC champ that would not get a bye.
  2. Klatt thinks Bama is in regardless of who wins the ACC CG.
  3. https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/mac-engel/article296175184.html
  4. With a win, Texas’ first game would be the quarterfinal. CFP says they will try to match the conference champs with their traditional bowl- so Texas would go to the Sugar Bowl as SEC champ. After the quarterfinals, the top remaining seed picks its preferred site for a semifinal game from the two choices: Cotton and Orange. I assume that if Texas gets the choice, it will be the Cotton Bowl game (Arlington). If Texas’ opponent chooses, it will be the Orange Bowl.
  5. I believed two years ago that the B1G screwed up by giving Oregon a home. UT and USC bring new competition to a conference, sure. They also bring new recruiting territories. And huge viewerships. Oregon brings none of that. They get their recruits in other areas, because they don’t have enough in Oregon. The B1G could have let them wither in a lesser conference, and lost nothing. But they let them join and they use that Nike money to pluck top recruits from other areas.
  6. OU hired an ATT exec to work for the AD, wrt player compensation. Here is the letter: Reading between the lines, it sounds like the House settlement raises the NIL floor for FBS schools, as they can now use AD revenue (up to $20.5 M) for player compensation. I don’t k ow that it does a thing to limit the (outside of AD revenue) NIL ceiling.
  7. If you don’t mind me asking, is the deal with Hudson one of these (both based on speculation): -He signed for a big multi-year NIL, underperformed, and was told he was getting a pay cut, prompting him to leave or -He signed, underperformed, blames the Tech situation and wants a new scene to try to achieve his goals as a player or something else?
  8. PSA- bets of this sort really need to be paid in cash, mailed, with a bogus return address. That is to ensure you don’t get a lifetime of solicitations for more money. Kudos for paying, though.
  9. It’s an older tradition than that. Senior Jerrod Johnson was replaced by Tannehill. Johnson had replaced McGee. McGee had replaced senior Reggie McNeal. McNeal had replaced … Farris? Did Farris replace McCown? It has been going on for a while
  10. What is your point? Yes, upsets can and do happen. What point are you making?
  11. Disagree some what. In 2022, a TCU team that really wasn’t much better than Texas beat Michigan in the semifinal. They used Duggan as a runner, which opens a lot of stuff up in college football. It’s like a cheat code But, he had 16 carries against Michigan, and he wasn’t recovered the next week when they played Georgia. In the 12 team playoff, I think B12 teams and ACC teams can win some first round games. They call it a “puncher’s chance”. I don’t think you will see them do well the second round. Lack of size on the lines will hurt them.
  12. Alabama would be a ten point favorite over BYU in a neutral site game. They would be a TD favorite over the highest rated B12 team, ISU
  13. Ok, now that we have established that you can’t just go off the number of losses, that context matters, tell me why BYU should be in the CFP instead of Alabama. Do you think BYU is better, that they would beat Alabama? What would be the argument for BYU getting in ahead of the B12 CG loser?
  14. OK, so you claim Alabama is less deserving than BYU, because it has one more loss, and one of the two 6-6 teams that beat it, did so solidly. OK, Army has one less loss than BYU. Army lost to a CFP team, on the road, while BYU’s worst loss was at home to a 5-7 Kansas team. Do you agree Army has a better argument than BYU for an at large?
  15. I never pay much attention to those- conferences don’t play games, but teams do. Looking at it, I see there is a greater difference between the first and second conference than there is between the second and fourth.
  16. Here are the Sagarin rating final regular season numbers: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm Sagarin does a sophisticated least squares algorithm that has a goal of assigning a rating to teams that helps explain game outcomes, and therefore can predict potential game outcomes. Sagarin differentials correlate positively with Vegas point spreads and even outcomes. Texas is #2. We are half a point behind #1 NotreDame, meaning we would be half point dogs on a neutral field. That’s great for Texas, but to me, the interesting thing is the distribution at the top end of the scales. Looking at these for several years, usually the top teams have Sagarin ratings in the mid to high 90s. This year, the top teams are around 90. Does this mean there is more parity? I think so. I would attribute that to the portal, in that teams aren’t forced to go through seasons with flawed position groups, as they were before. also of note- five of the top 10 are SEC teams. Three are B1G. SMU is the lone ACC team in the top 10. The first B12 team comes in at 17.
  17. Why would BYU get in ahead of Alabama?
  18. Do we know which side of the bracket the Cotton Bowl is the semifinal for (which seeds feed it) and which side the Orange Bowl is the semifinal for?
  19. What was their reason for not allowing Bevo?
  20. Ha, ha…
  21. 25-18-1?
  22. ASU is in? Against BYU, unless they lose, in which case ISU and CU are next up?
  23. So, who is in the B12 CG?
  24. “Now, my team hasn’t ever done shit, and my conference hasn’t done shit, but teams that used to be in our conference are doing well in other conferences and other teams from the PAC are doing well in other conferences and, so…, context means nothing and all you should do for the CFP is watch the games and make a qualitative assessment!” That pretty much it? What if someone sneaks some Duncanville tape in there for the CFP to watch. Since we’re just watching the games…
  25. “Probable” does have a definition, specific for injury reports. It means “very likely to play”. A high ankle sprain is a more serious ankle sprain. He was diagnosed with it last Sunday, at the latest. These SEC injury reports are new this year. The league seems to want to have them. They are worthless if teams do not adhere to rules. If Texas knew Ewers had an ankle injury that was likely to keep him out, and reported him probable out of gamesmanship, you may think that’s a good idea. I doubt the conference does, though.
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