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statsman

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Everything posted by statsman

  1. You have to love holding both “sips are pathetic for getting excited about coming in third” and “hey, 2012 and 2020 were pretty damned great years” at the same time.
  2. You know who has been really serious about building their military? The PLA. I am of the opinion that the single most important strategic foreign policy goal of the US should be to deter China.
  3. The DOD and Commerce Department have a lot of laws limiting the sharing of IP, both for defense and dual use (commercial and defense). The U.S. spends 916B on defense, per year. The U.K., France and Germany, combined, spend $200B annually. Europe could increase defense spending by 50% (they are discussing increasing 10-20%, phased over three years), and their market is still dwarfed by the U.S. Remember- Russia invaded three years ago. That was not enough to make Europe get serious. In those three years, they have spent more on Russian energy than they gave (loaned) to Ukraine. The U.K. has about 70K active duty army troops. Do you think they are sending 20K to Ukraine? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/british-army-troops-ukraine-defence-b2701635.html Europe is showing signs of seriousness. They have introduced legislation in Brussels that would allow them to break debt limits for defense spending. That’s the first step. The second step is to dump the net zero mandates to allow production of weaponry.
  4. I think I would take Mateer in the Texas 2-deep. He has so much more playing experience than Owen- that has to mean something, right?
  5. Honestly, wrt Georgia and Crimea, the answer is we don’t have the reports of soldiers raping civilians, seemingly as a tactic, nor reports of mass graves of executed civilians. I think that’s a big part of it. And of course, that’s followed by the targeted bombing of civilian populations, and infrastructure. WRT Tibet, the PRC is much, much better at managing its image through pressure on western media companies and control of social media channels (how many here have TikTok on their phone? Ever query it for info about Tiannemen Square? It is no better than RT or Telegram, and probably worse. Cute videos, though). I mean- the PRC has ethnic concentration camps, race slaves, and credible reports of harvesting organs from living internees, and an income stream from sales of fentanyl ingredients to cartels, and there is no comparable western rage (our Europe allies all have national economic strategies of further engagement with the PRC). All I can figure is that they are much better at messaging than Russia.
  6. And that is less than half of what Germany paid Russia last year for energy (I know- that’s gross sales, not profit, but still,…in the third year of the invasion?) https://www.ft.com/content/81f60240-9f01-4dd8-85b0-1fec654a5257
  7. Reading comprehension. I said it was correct to blame Russia. I contrasted that with Russia’s ally, China, abstaining. Both votes are bogus, and maneuvers to try to be the broker of peace talks.
  8. Contrarian view: Trump did two things of note this past week, wrt Ukraine: 1. He had America vote against a UN resolution (correctly) charging Russia with starting the war. (Note- Russian ally China, also offering to broker a peace, abstained, instead of voting against. Wonder why?). 2. In the Oval Office televised discussion before the breakdown, he affirmed that U.S. weapon shipments, approved last year, would continue. Which of these actions is most significant, most telling? Zelensky wants guarantees of security. Trump has proposed a minerals deal for ores that are underneath the current battle lines, where commerce only happens in the advantage of US and Ukraine, if they are not under Russian control. I get that Zelensky wants his whole country back. He should. The truth is- no one has ever offered a plan or resources to accomplish that. Zelensky is not Churchill; he is Thieu, and he is balking at a deal that Thieu would have given his left nut for. He better hope that Budanov doesn’t start looking at him like Diem. Maybe Europe will offer a better deal. Maybe they will offer munitions and troops.
  9. He had some games like that late in the 2019 regular season, just incredibly efficient. I really believe that if he had not gotten hurt, he was going to Godzilla that playoffs. Remember, in the first round, Beverley explaining why they couldn’t stop him? “He’s Kevin Durant, man. He’s Kevin Durant”.
  10. I’m a novice. What do you think of WSJ article and its suggestions? Should I do this? Or something else? https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/taxes/tax-identity-theft-ip-pin-irs-ab021643?st=iEUkNq&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink
  11. The way to do it: Have the conference require a clause in every contract that states- “this contract not valid until approved by conference office”. Penalties would have to be different than they were in the past. Reducing scholarships hurts the players. Taking a team off TV hurts the paying customer that funds everything. They would have to be something like taking away a home game. That might get Auburn’s attention, if they had to play in Tuscaloosa three years in a row. But, I still haven’t seen any motion on this yet.
  12. A number of ways to game the system come to mind. For one, a backloaded two year contract, for that “must have” recruit when your budget is tapped out. Or, if $600 is the limit, a series of $500 handshakes. The only way this holds is if there are airtight rules, a strong auditing group, and conferences committed to enforcing. Lacking any one, it will still be the Wild West.
  13. Reviewing the first pages of this thread, it’s remarkable the B12 is doing as well as it is. When OUT was announced, most thought the B12 was dead- any teams that could would move on- ISU and KU to the B1G, OSU and TT (maybe TCU) to the PAC- and that would be that. Instead, the PAC went away. The B1G took the kill shot, by nabbing USC and UCLA (and the rich S. California recruiting grounds). I think a lot of the final winnowing was affected by the COVID year. As I remember, the PAC and B1G were ready to call off the season, until Ohio State and (primarily) intervened. It highlighted the PAC as a place that wasn’t really serious about football (you could say the same about the B1G, but it has just so much money). I also remember (correct me if I’m wrong), the B12 was the second conference to say they would not be canceling football. So, here we are: the B12 is still here, because it was serious about the game, the commissioner was a wizard at signing a media deal, and perhaps most importantly, the B1G and SEC didn’t want any of the programs left.
  14. Of course, this was an era when Texas was typically an eight win team. Texas offered the “prestige” of being a “name” program that was very beatable by the others. Also, I have to note that in 2020, the PAC and B1G freed up a lot of better time slots and premium channels for non-prime B12 games. I’m sure the networks understood that.
  15. Again, this is amazing (2020 numbers). Two factors, to explain the big ratings drop in B12 non-OU and non-UT games, and they may be inter-related… 1. When Texas and OU were in the conference, the conference (including games without Texas or OU) got more favorable time slots and channels, leading to better ratings. 2. A lot of Texas and OU fans would tune into other B12 games, out of interest in the competition. Now, they’re tuning into SEC games, instead.
  16. That OSU-Arky game was a function of an early week with few good games freeing up a nice major channel and time slot. Next season, KSU and ISU start their seasons with a special game in Dublin. I’m sure the coaches hate it, and Yormark loves it. The B12’s problem, and you hint at it, is that it doesn’t have popular “programs”. I bet if you asked Yormark whether OSU should play OU in football, he’d say, “Hell, yes”. In just a couple of years, the OSU AD will come around on that.
  17. https://sports.yahoo.com/big-12-football-on-tnt-new-deal-will-feature-13-football-games-on-wbd-channels-after-settlement-135956401.html
  18. ESPN is sub-licensing B12 football and basketball. Why do you pay a nice price for a product, and then sub-license it to a competitor? Because you realize that you paid too much and have to extract value, now, where you can. Again, it is not looking good for the next B12 media contract
  19. I was looking at TV ratings from the past few years, and noticed something a little surprising. In 2021, 2022, games between B12 rivals like, for example, TCU and OSU would be on Fox or ESPN and draw good ratings (around 2M). Now, they are on FS1 and draw about 450K. Significance? The B12 has a nice media contract, through 2031, even without Texas and OU. The ratings for non-OUT games from a few years ago support that valuation. The ratings from 2024 do not. Reasons? 1. B12 doesn’t have nearly as many games on the major channels as before? Has conference realignment allowed the SEC and B1G to schedule more premium games (I believe the conferences absolutely schedule with an eye to rival conference schedules), leaving fewer premium. Channel openings to the B12? Or, do the networks just believe the B12 games won’t draw as well? 2. Did Texas and OU have a “halo” effect, where fans of those schools would watch non-OUT games just to keep up with the conference they were interested in? And now they watch SEC games instead? Future- If new media contracts come out in 2031, and the SEC and B1G are making twice or three times what the B12 and ACC get, will the AD payments to players be affected? Aren’t they based on revenue?
  20. Sure. At that point, ASU had run 71 plays for 308 yards. Texas had run 39 plays for 224 yards. Piss poor complementary football Back to the topic- I have to think Sark thought that at some point he would get back the Quinn who started the Michigan game. If he had known that Quinn would be injured all year, would he have decided differently?
  21. With seven minutes to go in the 4th quarter, ASU had six offensive points. I’d say they had some success, not plenty of success. If we played better complementary football on offense, they don’t break ten points. As to Quinn’s injury, yeah…I don’t know that Sark knew and understood he wasn’t getting better. I believe Ewers really wanted to come back against OU, knowing that if Arch starts and wins it, that’s probably it for him as Texas QB. Of course, I don’t know anything about, just talking out my ass.
  22. Good plan. Problem: 1. Europe has had three years and hasn’t increased its military capability one bit. 2. Their reason: the EEC rules for having the Euro as a currency require limits on budget debt. To increase defense spending significantly, they would have to cut elsewhere. 3. It has been suggested that the EU could change that rule and allow more deficit spending for defense. Nobody has run with that, indicating that they really don’t want to spend more on defense. 4. (Yea, the UK is not bound by EU rules. It really doesn’t want to spend more on defense either) 5. Each of the major European nations have hotly contested politics. Nobody wants to get involved in a war. They made a lot of plans based on the idea that the U.S. would be so big that it would be capable of deterrence. Nobody planned on the U.S. electing a guy who would rather see an international order based on the most powerful nations (he sees three of them) making all the decisions amongst themselves, rather than a rules-based order. (Also, those other two powers don’t see him as the kindred spirit he flatters himself to be. They think he is a rube).
  23. FTR- not trying to praise Trump. In my opinion, this would work a whole hell of a lot better if the U.S. had approached the Ukrainians and said- “let’s figure out a way where our two countries re more strategically connected, where we each have a real financial incentive to align ourselves as sovereign nations, where Uncle Sam would lose a lot of money if Ukraine fell under Russian control”, and then come up with some kind of deal like this. That’s not really how Trump works.
  24. Contrarian view: -the U.S. only makes money off this deal if Ukraine retains sovereignty. That answers the questions of the isolationists- “What’s the US’ interest?” -what is the Best Alternative To Negotiated Agreement (BATNA) for Ukraine? Counting on the Euros to save the day? -If Nguyen Van Thieu, “retired” in Massachusetts in the 1990’s were asked if he would have signed a similar agreement in 1973, what do you think he would have said? -Do you think Putin would be happy or upset (or maybe totally disinterested) if Ukraine agreed to this?
  25. https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/2022-season/ 2022 ratings: OU-OSU: 3.06 M Texas-TCU: 5.03 M Texas-OSU: 4.46 M (you actually see decent numbers for non-Texas and non-OU games, as if there is a halo effect) Ha-ha-ha-ha! Those idiots at ESPN and Fox thought the B12 schools were making part of the contribution to those numbers. Now, they know- when B12 schools play each other, get the streaming ready. The B12 needs to really enjoy its media contract through 2031; got a feeling there will be an adjustment later.
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