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statsman
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Everything posted by statsman
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https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-will-tap-frozen-russian-assets-for-ukraine-arms-germanys-scholz-says-659ed672?st=jn4q0pzg5xiee6t&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink https://www.wsj.com/world/g-7-threatens-new-sanctions-if-iran-provides-ballistic-missiles-to-russia-8b1a3242?st=mcvqi8lq5nc850s&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink
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There is a concept called “complementary football”, where the offensive schemes and defensive schemes support each other, mesh together. For example, a hurry up offense doesn’t need to be paired with a shallow defensive roster, because a couple of three-and -outs on offense, and the defense is done for the game. That’s a simple example. Im sure there are more granular and detailed examples, and I imagine it takes a head coach really knowledgeable about both sides of the ball to really work them out. Since 1994, it has been Jerry Jones picking the offensive and defensive schemes, because he not only hires the head coach; he also hires the coordinators. Because he’s a “football man”. Were in good hands, Dallas fans. 😬
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Please. Lance Rentzel. In the’60s, Rentzel exposed himself to a little girl in Minnesota. It was suppressed. They traded him to the Cowboys, where he became a star, enjoying the single coverage received on the other side from Bob Hayes. He then exposed himself to a little girl in north Dallas, whose father wouldn’t let the DA downplay it, forcing a trade to the Rams, where he entered sports media (it was a different era). At some point, the world figured out that this kind of behavior was more than a “nutty kink”, and Rentzel was relegated to ignominy. Still, the fact remains that the Cowboys had a monster on the roster for a few years. FIFY
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I picked up a book, “The Pony Trap”, written ten years ago by an ex SMU football player. It’s basically an apologetic for the Pony Express days. It’s fascinating, the way SMU fans and old players will try to spin that they were victims, that they were doing nothing other programs were doing. Oh, the way they like to point at Texas (SMU PIs turned Texas in for: coaches letting injured players use their car to get to class - the players didn’t have cars, coaches giving players that flunked out bus fare home) as being on probation, too, but let off easier because the Horns were favored by the NCAA. I went to the ON3 site for SMU and saw much of the same. If I have to spell it out- SMU’s cheating was on a whole nuther level than everyone else’s. Their Regents chair knew and approved. Their AD knew and approved. They swore to the NcAA that they would stop, and still continued payments. SMU is unique- they have boosters, with money, that want SMU to be a top program. They just don’t have a lot of fans. They never have. They are incapable of organically growing into a top program, but they can lean into trying, again, to be “the best team money can buy”.
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Given that Hamas can’t account for 130 hostages, I don’t get why anyone wants to put much faith in any of their other accounting.
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There is a science to noting bogus numbers. Generally, it comes down to numerical facets (last digit) or the number itself not being normally distributed. The author, Abraham Wyner, explains that. He also points out that: Hamas is reporting 30k dead, militants and civilians. Hamas reports 70% of the dead as women and children. Hamas reports 20% dead as militants. Does that make any sense? That IDF are more likely to kill women and children than men? That almost all of the men are Hamas militants?
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Is my memory right, in that Alberts dislikes UT? If so, he is in line with the last NU AD to take the Ag job- Bill Byrne.
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BMW Audi and Benz Reliability and Cost
statsman replied to TwiceHorn's topic in Can You Help Me With This?
I’ve had a couple of Audis. They were fantastic cars until they hit 100k miles, at which point the necessary maintenance and required repairs got really expensive. Then we got an X5. At 100k miles, it needed a couple of repairs (can’t remember what) that would run $7k, and we traded it in on a RX350. Lexus (Toyota) builds a good car, but they’re not perfect. There is a small leak from the timing belt cover. There is a silicon seal bead that gaps. The repair requires the engine to be pulled, at a cost of $5,700. I googled, and this is really common. I asked the Lexus service person, “So, I get that you have to pull the engine. After that, what does the repair involve?” (I was hoping to hear that there was a redesigned part that would hold the seal). “We reapply the silicon seal and put it back together”. “Really? What keeps it from breaking again?” ”The repair is warrantied for 12 months”. So, I passed. I’m taking the car to an independent Toyota repair shop and see if they’ll just apply a bunch of sealant in accessible area without pulling the engine). -
I really want to disagree with you here, to say that eradicating Hamas will allow things to get better for both. I’m an optimist. Problem is-we never talk about who bankrolls Hamas, especially in their militant operations. Iran. Eradicate Hamas (they deserve it) and Iran will bankroll the next group of extremists. They’re better at it than the Soviets ever were. I believe in liberal democracy as the best form of government. Israel is populated by liberals, but a Jewish state is an illiberal idea. They have room to go. Still, they’re closer than Gaza. I believe Gazans can form and function a liberal democracy, but they have to be given space from the militant authoritarians, and I don’t see how that happens. Especially with Iran ready to move right back in.
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No, I’m not.
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And how far does that idea go? Thats my point. Is it not mind boggling that October 7 happened (is still happening for hundreds of Israelis)? The Hamas militants that went in there knowing they would be raping and mutating- do they not have wives, sisters, mothers, daughters? How does that even get planned, let alone acted out on a large scale? They must really, really hate the Jews.
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Sure. But let’s not pretend there is any kind of moral equivalency, just because it may make you feel better about political allies. Let’s try a counterfactual thought experiment. Suppose a high ranking IDF general were to propose, “We’ll get several thousand IDF troops together, and we will storm into Gaza. We will rampage through neighborhoods, killing as many Gazans as we can, man woman and child. With our hands and knives, where possible. Oh! And there will be a lot of raping and sexual mutilation. Babies will be burned and then we’ll grab a couple hundred living hostages and drag them back”. Do you think such an idea, in Israel, would be met with anything other than a suggestion to seek mental health care? In Hamas, it was actuated.
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There is an old trope- “He killed his parents and then asked the court for leniency, because he is an orphan”. That’s what Hamas is doing, pleeding for intervention against Israel due to the humanitarian disaster that they created and continue to support.
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https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/house-democrats-try-to-bypass-speaker-johnson-to-force-vote-on-ukraine-aid-5e33753f?st=qgn10i8q7pk19oc&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink The discharge petition requires a couple dozen GOP signees, due to the number of Dem Reps unwilling to sign, because of its support for Israel.
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I’m sure you know that is Hamas/Fatah math. When prisoners are exchanged, they insist on a 100:1 ratio. Fatah pays a lifetime pension to the families of a Palestinian that kills a Jew.
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They were quoted by the POTUS and Sec. of Defense. Everyone understands that the death of even one innocent is a tragedy. Bogus numbers allow the sympathetic world to aim its animus at Israel. A correct understanding of the numbers reveals how evil Hamas is. Hamas has fortified tunnels under Gaza, built at UN expense. When Israel attacks, Hamas retreats to the tunnels, leaving Gazan civilians outside. Hamas desires Gazan civilian casualties; that’s a strategy for survival. This is a horrible, awful math, but the calculation can’t be correct without the right data.
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WRT reported Gazan casualty- we know that Hamas reports are not anything to put faith in. We also know that any loss of innocent civilian life is a tragedy. That said, Abraham Wyner, a stats prof at Wharton, took a look at the casualty numbers reported by Hamas and explains why they’re probably all made up. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers This is not to downplay the humanitarian tragedy, but to shed light on subjective assessments of Israel’s methods of urban warfare.
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Russia went to a wartime production. The U.S. wouldn’t. Europe couldn’t. (Evidently)
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No. A lot of western aid is preconditioned on Ukraine not attacking Russia proper. They have worked around it surreptitiously, but doing so overtly is a no-no.
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There is a lot to unravel here- military vs. police action (depends on citizenship claims of Gazans), old land claims, asymmetric warfare rules (or lack of). Fontana, your typical response to my questioning is something like, “you’re late to the discussion; this has all been worked out already in the CR thread”. Maybe it has been, or maybe you can’t explain it beyond “my side-your side”. I do know that the CR thread mainstays may feel they have it all figured out, but their position is a minority position in the U.S. Which doesn’t make them wrong; but it doesn’t give them authority either. “Shut up”, he explained- that’s not an argument. This is the DT thread, so discussion is limited here. I think it’s fine to discuss facets of the war here. It is a war, if you agree that Gaza and Israel are two different states (yes, I know that Israel declared war on “Hamas” and not “Gaza”; it is in Gaza where that war is waged). If you disagree, and believe Gaza and Israel are the same state; then this is an internal police action, and not a war, and different standards apply (one of the wonderful unique things about the U.S. is that our constitution forbids the military to be applied internally). In 2005, Israel said Gaza wasn’t theirs any more, so that’s their stance. That’s a discussion I haven’t seen held here. My take is that Israel has a stronger argument.
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Jewish people, especially in Israel, have unique ideas about dead bodies and proper care of them. It’s my understanding that the religious folks had more say in handling the corpses, early on, than the forensic folks. You used to hear crazy stories during the Intifada, when a Palestinian suicide bomber blew up a bunch of people, of religious authorities coming to the scene to collect every body fragment they could, no matter how small. Then, there’s also the whole thing of Israel trading live prisoners for dead IDF captives. Don’t worry, though. Israel has a lot of photographic evidence and they have made some displays. Every time it’s shown to some one in the west, they leave crying and angry.
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I don’t see your point. The UN, as a body, is neutral to Hamas, at best, for Hamas at worst. If their report says hostages are still being raped (remember- sexual assault by Hamas means violent rape; sexual assault by IDF means strip search), I take that to mean you can take it to the bank. Of all the victims in the war, the hostages may be in the most awful situation. Held by captors that hate them for who they are, subject to all kinds of assaults, in fear of dying at all times. (At least a few dozen have been killed). They’re terribly inconvenient for all sides. For Hamas, they are evidence of atrocities and may have to be “dispositioned”. For Israel, they are human shields they need to plan around. For the U.S., they represent a possible political drumbeat, similar to the one that brought down Carter’s administration. 45 years ago, hostages were all we talked about. I don’t know why you don’t like an occasional reminder.
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https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/biden-warns-netanyahu-an-assault-on-rafah-would-cross-red-line-c78677ba?st=6rdampiij0hxc2z&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink
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