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statsman

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Everything posted by statsman

  1. It’s like they have no idea how their program was built…
  2. There was an OU Drumm/Thune podcast, where they bemoaned the portal and NIL. They said Mateer would cost them $2.5M(!) They were also saying that players were insisting on big paydays, because revenue sharing would reduce the size of future NIL deals (I don’t think that is so). I think guys were insisting on big paydays because market prices are set by competition, and market prices don’t care about college football blue blood status or Sooner Magic TM.
  3. This is a recruiting thread, so hopefully it’s ok to note that Venables seems to have still not learned the rule of the modern game- “your most important recruits are the guys already on your roster”. All he is doing his repeating the best practices of the last quarter century of Sooner football, the Stoops Era. These practices were integral to producing hard nosed physical teams. He hasn’t figured out that a whole lot of that doesn’t work when there are not only no barriers for players leaving, but actually enticements to leave.
  4. I have a guilty pleasure- I go to Sooner Scoop and read the Sooner fans’ laments: ”NIL has ruined college football” (actually, it has only been bad for programs that used to spend under the table and can’t afford the price of poker now that it’s legal) ”This can’t go on! Something will have to be done e!” (It can go on, and something’ doesn’t have to be done) It is all driven by a sense that the universe shares the Okies’ angst, that OU being a mid team is unbearable. (It doesn’t) It gets pointed out, when they call for a salary cap, that collective bargaining would have to happen first. The Sooner advocates respond, “Great! Bring on collective bargaining!” It occurs to me that it is more likely that new associations of like minded schools would form first, to voluntarily manage the system. An example would be the Ivy League. They do not provide athletic scholarships (I know they have a lot of work-arounds, but they do not adhere to NCAA rules and regulations on athletic scholarships), and it is voluntary. (Presumably, they could be NIL monsters, but they choose not to be). Anyway, it seems more likely, to me, that new conference associations would form, based on NIL willingness (a top league with no cap, lower leagues with voluntary caps) than for the NCAA or CFA to institute caps.
  5. On Sooner Scoop, they’re optimistic that they will reach a deal to retain him. (Which is hilarious, that they have to dig deeper to get their slot possession receiver, with less production than Drake Stoops, and who was injured most of the year, to return).
  6. In two weeks, they play Navy. Now, a month ago, OU probably had a significantly better team than Navy. Now, they are down to Hawkins at QB, the receivers are injured or in the portal, and I have no idea on who is sitting out. Navy, like a typical service academy, actually wants to win the bowl game and will be at full strength. This will be fun
  7. Mateer would be a fool to come to this program, and play behind that line and throw to whatever receivers might be there. Surely he is getting better advice than that.
  8. Yeah, the WSJ had an article a couple of weeks ago, kind of a “here is the illicit drug that is real popular in the ME that you have probably never heard of, but will know about it soon”. The connection to OU recruiting- it’s the meth of the ME.
  9. It just gets better and better. Their coping involves a debate over how and when limits will be placed on NIL (the “why” is - something must be done about this! It must!) Oklahoma is one of the most conservative states in these United States. These Okies are crying for college athletes to collectively bargain with the NCAA. They want a salary cap and revenue sharing.
  10. Truly amazing https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/college-football-tv-ratings/ The20-80 rule seems to apply. 20% of the teams get 80% of the viewers.
  11. The great part, and I never expected this, is that OU is the Minnesota Twins.
  12. From the earlier linked OU podcast- “playing a bowl game in TCU’s stadium is the low point of Oklahoma football in the last quarter century.”
  13. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/oklahoma-sooners-unofficial-40/id1114209557?i=1000680069528 This is awesome. They discuss the portal and… -how much they need offensive talent, and how difficult it is to get it interested in the 2025 Oklahoma Sooners. (They have no receivers) -how much more difficult it is to retain offensive talent than they expected (budgeted for) -they believe they have a $14M budget, and how that should be competitive -how they hate where the sport is, and how they wish there was a salary cap. I love this. In the mid ‘70s, as Royal was complaining about OU and others buying players, against the rules, Switzer was mocking him. He would say, “Texas just has a bunch of lazy, old coaches that just don’t want to work at recruiting. He would do better if he worked instead of pointed fingers.” To OU, now, I would say, “Maybe you guys should stop complaining about how the game is, now, and just work harder”.😂
  14. Sagarin says Florida was the 20th best team in the country, playing the fifth toughest schedule. Florida played four top 10 Sagarin teams, and went 1-3. Florida was a good team with a ridiculous schedule. Playing at home, Ole Miss is just a small underdog. SMU went 0-0 against top 10 teams, and 1-2 against top 30. Clemson went 1-1 against top 10, and 1-3 against top 30.
  15. Why do you believe Florida was a bad team? Did you know that Clemson was beaten by S. Carolina on the last week of the season?
  16. I think all of these can be true… 1. There is a “loss bias” that causes CFP members and poll voters to assume a two loss ACC or B12 team is comparable or better than a three loss SEC team. 2. The SEC has more teams that are a threat to beat a really good team than the ACC, B12 and even B1G, and so a three loss SEC team like South Carolina is probably better than a two loss ACC team like SMU or a two loss B12 team like BYU. 3. The SEC should drop FCS teams and play a nine game league schedule, allowing a regular intra conference rotation and multiple annual rivals. I think the solution can come in 2026. The SEC agrees to a nine game league schedule, ESPN agrees to a bigger media payout and the CFP expands to 14 teams with the SEC guaranteed four spots.
  17. I assume the Georgia odds are assuming Beck is done for the season.
  18. Part of the price is based on the fact that, if Texas goes to the CFP CG, Texas fans will drive the cost up on the secondary market.
  19. I’m ready to do the same this year. My feeling is- if Texas goes all the way, going won’t be cost-prohibitive for my family. If Texas loses to, say, Oregon in the Cotton Bowl, and I lose the “investment”, we’ll, I paid that MC bill months ago.
  20. My guess is that the option should be worth ((Secondary Market Price of CG Ticket) - (Face Value of CG Ticket)) * (Expected Chance of Selected Team Making CG). The upper deck option for Texas in the CG was around $325 before the SEC CG. After losing, and getting seeded #5, that option was worth about $420 this morning. I thought that was interesting
  21. Three SEC teams made the CFP. I see SEC heads like Saban saying that this is a disincentive for SEC teams to schedule difficult games OOC. I saw coaches from other conferences saying the SEC should have a nine game schedule. I assumed that the SEC would go to nine games when the money is good enough (to match the B1G media revenue). Now, I’m not so sure. In an eight game league schedule, there are formats where teams can have one annual rival. There are no formats for three annual rivals. Nine game schedules can have three annual rivals. Texas has three obvious rivals- OU (and neither team wants to surrender the match in Dallas), Arkansas (Texas can take or leave them, but Arkansas Carrell wants this game), and TAMU (where everybody else seems to enjoy the game more than Texas and TAMU). So, how do you see this going? I suspect the price for a nine game schedule just went up. If we only have o e annual rival, do you agree it’s OU?
  22. Thanks, but only if we make it. I’d never sell them. Ride or die😄 It’s a hedge against ridiculous Nc game prices should Texas make it there. Similarly, I bought a couple of CB tix. I’ll sell at a Minimal loss if Texas doesn’t make that semifinal, or goes to the Orange Bowl.
  23. So, you’re in the Joey McGuire “Watch the games!” School? The SEC teams are better. Alabama would drill SMU.
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